MJO812 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 We need the low to stall out slightly further west and south for the area to get more precip ( snowfall ) Solid 2-4 for NYC Interior is going to get buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: We need the low to stall out slightly further west and south for the area to get more precip ( snowfall ) Solid 2-4 for NYC Interior is going to get buried. You want the mid level centers to track over the Delmarva instead of SNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: We need the low to stall out slightly further west and south for the area to get more precip ( snowfall ) Solid 2-4 for NYC Interior is going to get buried. Places above 1000' up here will see 24"+ if you believe the NAM. Ugh as much as I wanna believe it I highly doubt that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: You want the mid level centers to track over the Delmarva instead of SNJ. Huge difference from last night , but I’ll take 2-4 inches and run . Still some time for model changes between now and tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, snywx said: Places above 1000' up here will see 24"+ if you believe the NAM. Ugh as much as I wanna believe it I highly doubt that happens. Yeah great, I'll be ~25 miles too far east and 300 feet too low. I wonder if getting high will help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, snywx said: Places above 1000' up here will see 24"+ if you believe the NAM. Ugh as much as I wanna believe it I highly doubt that happens. This "theory" that the NAM is always overdone and that you always need to reduce what it shows is way over used. When you look at the upper air dynamics it's easy to make an argument that QPF is underdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Pivotal snowmap has 3-6 here I will take that either way Good luck to the interior. Huge snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 3k looks more impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Someone is going to end up with like 8" of snow on 2.5" liquid in Northern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: Someone is going to end up with like 8" of snow on 2.5" liquid in Northern NJ. Yea I think Kuchera of 6-1 is probably overdone even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Someone is going to end up with like 8" of snow on 2.5" liquid in Northern NJ. Hopefully not MMU. I like having heat and power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, gravitylover said: Yeah great, I'll be ~25 miles too far east and 300 feet too low. I wonder if getting high will help Hotbox in the Ninham fire tower? 1,300' or whatever that is should be enough, and if not, we'd be far from the first individuals to spend Friday night getting high up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I'm in Poughkeepsie area and this is a tough call with thermal profiles. 12K nam dumps on me and NWS Albany going with 1-3 of slop. I have no idea how this is going to play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 14 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: This "theory" that the NAM is always overdone and that you always need to reduce what it shows is way over used. When you look at the upper air dynamics it's easy to make an argument that QPF is underdone. I agree. It's just hard to believe considering how much less all other guIdance is printing out. That being said, Anything is possible just north of a closed ULL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 A met or more knowledgeable poster can correct me but I'm fairly certain that the strongest wind gusts should occur as the system begins to pull away and pressures begin to rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Someone is going to end up with like 8" of snow on 2.5" liquid in Northern NJ. Implying 3:1 ratios? Or do you mean some of that falls as liquid? Pure sleet is about 3:1, for reference... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, snywx said: I agree. It's just hard to believe considering how much less all other guIdance is printing out. That being said, Anything is possible just north of a closed ULL Yeah but it's not for lack of dynamics or moisture on most of the other guidance, it's that those models are saying the BL will be too warm. I personally believe the NAM is better equipped at handling the low level cold air vs the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Implying 3:1 ratios? Or do you mean some of that falls as liquid? Pure sleet is about 3:1, for reference... I was implying very poor ratios. I could see someone in the lower elevations getting over 3" liquid, with some of that wasted as rain, but overall a very heavy, wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Sent to me this morning from Morris County OEM Good morning, The Morris County Office of Emergency Management is currently monitoring the powerful coastal storm that will impact northern New Jersey. Morris County is currently under a Hazardous Weather Outlook which includes a Flood Watch in effect from late tonight through late Friday evening. In addition, a High Wind Watch will be in effect from Friday morning through Saturday morning. The forecast data suggests that we will see rain moving into our area late this afternoon/evening which will become steady overnight and persist through Friday evening. Rainfall amounts of 1.5” – 2.5” are possible, which could lead to flooding issues in some areas. With already saturated grounds across the county, our flooding risk for Friday afternoon has been elevated. In addition, we may also see a change from rain to wet snow in some areas. We also may face some issues on Friday, with strong winds coming from the north at 20-30 mph, and gusts reaching 45-50 mph. Wind will remain strong into Saturday which will have the potential for downed trees and power lines. We have been in touch with representatives from Jersey Central Power & Light (JCP&L), and they are closely monitoring this coastal storm. They are prepared to activate the Storm Restoration Plan, should power outages occur. To report outages customers may call 1-888-LIGHTSS (888-544-4877), go to www.jcp-l.com, or click the “Report Outage” link on www.firstenergycorp.com. Jeffrey S. Paul Director, Office of Emergency Management Morris County Dept. of Law & Public Safety PO Box 900 Morristown, NJ 07963-0900 Morris County EMS Coordinator Morris County Special Operations Group (SOG) Commander Tactical Operations Captain (Ret.) Morris County Prosecutor’s Office FBI National Academy Class 224 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: The LLJ and wind gust potential really maxes out over NNJ on the 3km as the low loops back to the SW. That's pretty alarming especially if you add some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 The 3k NAM put out a 30"+ spot on SWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 3km is awesome for everyone, including coastal NJ and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, ag3 said: 3km is awesome for everyone, including coastal NJ and LI. Yeah but the difference between SWF and ISP is over 20". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 So is the NAM verbatim sandy-esque power outages? I can't imagine 6" of 5-1 ratio snow and 60 mph winds leads to anything good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Check out the lapse rates around 700mb. That's a bonkers banding signature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 12z RGEM is very warm, keeps almost everyone here rain for the duration with exception of the highest elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 3 K Nam has 7 inches for NYC, 12 inches for central LI and 6-12 for Central to South NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, friedmators said: So is the NAM verbatim sandy-esque power outages? I can't imagine 6" of 5-1 ratio snow and 60 mph winds leads to anything good. No not that extreme. Perhaps this is similar to the Halloween nor’easter in 2011? but there was also leaves on the trees when that happened . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: 12z RGEM is very warm, keeps almost everyone here rain for the duration with exception of the highest elevations. It has been very warm for the event Might be too warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.