Dan76 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Red sky's in morning.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 What did the NAM and GFS show @6z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, allgame830 said: What did the NAM and GFS show @6z? 1-3 inches around the city with much more for the interior , it cut back tofals big time for the coast . It is the 6z though so we’ll see what the NAM shows at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Bernie still buying in according to his tweet,,,,,he does not usually love the NAM but says it will have a handle on this storm,,,,,should be an interesting 2 days I look forward to todays models and the info from all of you-----I guess it still comes down to ULL closing off and where ,,,,no ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masomenos Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Most of the models are kind of past their usefulness for a system like this--at least until the ccb and banding sets up. But from everything we've seen so far, this storm is probably going to be one of those deals where places like Eastern Monmouth are getting blitzed while New Brunswick is 34 and rain/white rain. Given the state of the broader global pattern right now, I'd place my bets on something interesting happening over meh, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 29 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Bernie still buying in according to his tweet,,,,,he does not usually love the NAM but says it will have a handle on this storm,,,,,should be an interesting 2 days I look forward to todays models and the info from all of you-----I guess it still comes down to ULL closing off and where ,,,,no ? Don't be surprised by any of this. You might still be ok up there though. 50 miles can make a big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I wouldn’t sleep on this storm, even for the city, I could easily see 6-10 paste with a sharp eastern cut off...I think west of the Hudson is in better shape Obv, but never underestimate a closed ULL... and if the the nam has the 700 low tracked proper then sky’s the limit imo... she will dump... models are having a hard time determining strength/influence of both the Northern Stream feature/Confluence... given the current Synoptics, GFS surface maps should be ignored, and last nights euro was riddled with convection issues... furthermore proving how Global’s cannot handle these dynamics. on top of a split 250 Jet ripping 175+kt ULL closes ULL just south, and a 700 low strong as I’ve ever seen in similar position, the frontogenic implication should be astounding in short.. ignor the SLP placement, focus of 500/700mb and ignor snow maps P.s recon data today, let’s see what models says this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 That primary is pretty far north on the HRRR. It's still kinda amazing what a marginal thermal profile will do to even short range forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 28 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I wouldn’t sleep on this storm, even for the city, I could easily see 6-10 paste with a sharp eastern cut off...I think west of the Hudson is in better shape Obv, but never underestimate a closed ULL... and if the the nam has the 700 low tracked proper then sky’s the limit imo... she will dump... models are having a hard time determining strength/influence of both the Northern Stream feature/Confluence... given the current Synoptics, GFS surface maps should be ignored, and last nights euro was riddled with convection issues... furthermore proving how Global’s cannot handle these dynamics. on top of a split 250 Jet ripping 175+kt ULL closes ULL just south, and a 700 low strong as I’ve ever seen in similar position, the frontogenic implication should be astounding in short.. ignor the SLP placement, focus of 500/700mb and ignor snow maps P.s recon data today, let’s see what models says this afternoon Looks like the WSW posted for Orange, W Passaic is specifically for those above 800' as per Upton. Elevation is gonna play a factor as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 HWW with gusts up to 65 mph is very significant. There's more to the storm than just snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Winter Storm Watch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Let the analysis of the 12z suite begin soon ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ja643y Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Anyone notice that the 6z Nam (really all guidance for that matter) at hour 7 which is essentially now is way less intense than current obs? I think this thing is coming together quickly and we're in for a storm that verifies at the higher end (not necessarily snow, but overall strength/impacts) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Upton going 4-8 for OC... Albany not so quick to join in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 23 minutes ago, friedmators said: That primary is pretty far north on the HRRR. It's still kinda amazing what a marginal thermal profile will do to even short range forecasts. Yes, and it has it snowing all the way to Albany and northern MA. The gfs for reference doesn’t have it snowing anywhere east of Rochester at the same hour. Could mean nothing, but I might as well grasp and hope that it’s a sign that the gfs is indeed to warm with its thermal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 After seeing the midnight runs , I think 1-3 inches is a good call for the nyc area. The tricky part is where the CCB band sets up. Models don't really grasp that aspect right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 23 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Upton going 4-8 for OC... Albany not so quick to join in IMO, Albany, itself, will probably see 4"-8" snow. NWS is probably waiting for the next cycle of guidance before ramping up its forecast given the degree of uncertainty that exists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Early on but it looks like the whole H5 trough is south about 25 miles. Downstream effects TBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 NAM should be a bomb, already closed off at H5 well inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 This run is going to be problematic for Southern and Central NJ because the 500mb low is too close, so you're going to dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 The low is taking longer to stack this run, so the CCB is a bit slower to develop. Remember that the strongest precipitation is while the storm is still deepening. Once the lows become stacked the system peaks and then begins to weaken. Yesterday models had this occuring by 00z Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 CNJ finally gets under the CCB @ 30. Vertical Velocities look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Crush job, city looks to change over to snow around 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 12z NAM at hr 30 has a 978 parked over Marthas Vineyard. Gonna be a great run for the interior again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, friedmators said: CNJ finally gets under the CCB @ 30. Vertical Velocities look good. I wonder if you flat out dry slot tomorrow morning down there instead of the pivot overhead. That's the danger of the ULL tracking so far North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Total rippage tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Storm peaks around 21z Friday and then slowly begins to fill and weaken. Peaked sustained surface winds 925mb winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I wonder if you flat out dry slot tomorrow morning down there instead of the pivot overhead. That's the danger of the ULL tracking so far North. its gonna be rough watching the returns die south of 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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