doncat Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 When the gfs got our last snow event wrong even after it had been snowing for a few hours before the run...I gave up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 GFS looked better to me. The ground temps are plainly too warm as the precip is wrapping around and mid level temps crash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: GFS looked better to me. The ground temps are plainly too warm as the precip is wrapping around and mid level temps crash. The gfs will always be too warm and forecasters will go with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, SnoSki14 said: The gfs will always be too warm and forecasters will go with it. it's terrible with thermal profiles...I'm guessing b/c it has a lower resolution than the Euro or NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 26 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: To be fair I think Upton and Mt. Holly should have left the door open a little wider for significant changes in their forecast during the next 24 hours I’m quite surprised as well , the coldest dynamics and heaviest backend precip will be moving in at the perfect time ..late Thursday night. Just enough to keep temps in the borderline range, which is all that’s needed, dynamics will take over. Heavy snow should be a widespread thing Friday morning. If it were to occur during the afternoon , I’d be much less certain... with a March sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 16 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Going down with the ship I see Gfs Is terrible in these setups Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: it's terrible with thermal profiles...I'm guessing b/c it has a lower resolution than the Euro or NAM Since the upgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs Is terrible in these setups GFS is terrible period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 12 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: The gfs will always be too warm and forecasters will go with it. Nah it was way off last Saturday and I had a warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Nah it was way off last Saturday and I had a warning It showed rain while I was snowing LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Nice snow hole on the Goofus over my area in Poughkeepsie. Broke my heart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Nice snow hole on the Goofus over my area in Poughkeepsie. Broke my heart. Meh its doing nothing over most of NJ so don't feel bad. Still a lot of confusion about this but to listen to the media there's not much going on but rain and "maybe" some snow. Every time I hear Poughkeepsie I think of Gene Hackman and Popeye Doyle..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 The GFS has become one of the worst models available. The 84hr NAM is often more accurate. The GFS is useful for picking up threats way in advance and that’s about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: 48 hours out, first guess on actual accumulations Pink - Coating to 2" Light Blue - 1-3" Dark Blue - 2-4" Green - 3-6" Red - 4-8" Black - 12"+ I like it. I like the option for coating to 2 inches. This goes with my continued honking that this is a car topper for the city. I will say it’s to far south on the northern side. The southern greens and whites will definitly be in the 12”+ range. for areas Nw with some elevation (animal, you should have everyone over for a blizzard party) we can use an example of a storm down south a few years ago. It had cold aloft and garbage surface temps. It was able to create its own airmass and led to serious totals. I forget the exact storm. Also I like November 12 for another example of dynamic cooling snows. Just further NW. And finally, if winds due gust up to 60mph watch out for tree damage as we already have saturated soils. There is a tremendous fetch out over the Atlantic so a massive long period swell will effect area beaches Saturday into Sunday. Take a ride down to the beach if you want to see some of the biggest surf you will ever see around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 18z HRDPS is beautiful. Storm stalls and spins just east of LI. Rain to pounding snow for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 18z HRDPS is beautiful. Storm stalls and spins just east of LI. Rain to pounding snow for the area. That almost a certain 130 year ago March Storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, rclab said: That almost a certain 130 year ago March Storm. Why not strange things are the norm these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: 18z HRDPS is beautiful. Storm stalls and spins just east of LI. Rain to pounding snow for the area. why don't you show another mesoscale model like the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 25 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 18z HRDPS is beautiful. Storm stalls and spins just east of LI. Rain to pounding snow for the area. Does remind one of Feb 26 2010. Here in Nassau County we had an inch of rain followed by a foot of snow. I would cut those snowfall amounts to 1/10 for this storm though ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: why don't you show a more reliable mesoscale model like the RGEM Mr. Snow Goggles Rgem is a northern outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: why don't you show a more reliable mesoscale model like the RGEM Mr. Snow Goggles I think a lot of models are going to be off on the thermal profiles for this especially if it closes off like the Nam shows. But again that's if it closes that way otherwise say goodbye to the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 WPC has most of the immediate NYC metro in the 5 - 10 % category for more then 1 inch of snow http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=snow&amt=1&day=3&ftype=probabilities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 54 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The GFS has become one of the worst models available. The 84hr NAM is often more accurate. The GFS is useful for picking up threats way in advance and that’s about it. as of now it looks like the NAM with its outrageous snow totals will be the worst model for this storm unless it comes into line with the more accurate models at 0Z . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 22 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: why don't you show another mesoscale model like the RGEM Mr. Snow Goggles How did the last storm work out for you ? I have gotten more storms this year than you have smarty pants. Anyway Rgem at 54 hours is in its long range so grain of salt. Like I said , pattern supports snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 8 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: as of now it looks like the NAM with its outrageous snow totals will be the worst model for this storm unless it comes into line with the more accurate models at 0Z . LOL Euro and Nam show the similiar situation but different amounts. Keep dismissing the snow because the NWS says so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 23 minutes ago, Paragon said: Does remind one of Feb 26 2010. Here in Nassau County we had an inch of rain followed by a foot of snow. I would cut those snowfall amounts to 1/10 for this storm though ;-) 18 inches here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 8 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: as of now it looks like the NAM with its outrageous snow totals will be the worst model for this storm unless it comes into line with the more accurate models at 0Z . But Neg what if the NAM nails this storm and the other models are not as accurate ? Would not be the first time it was correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 14 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: WPC has most of the immediate NYC metro in the 5 - 10 % category for more then 1 inch of snow http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=snow&amt=1&day=3&ftype=probabilities As of right now they do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, Brasiluvsnow said: But Neg what if the NAM nails this storm and the other models are not as accurate ? Would not be the first time it was correct Nam has had a good season. The mesoscale models will do great in these setups. The blocking will not let the primary go further north. A secondary should form in SNJ or just south of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: But Neg what if the NAM nails this storm and the other models are not as accurate ? Would not be the first time it was correct with WPC at 5 -10 % chance for over 1 inch in the immediate NYC metro I feel confident now that this will be 80 % rain with a mix/changeover the last 20 % with warm surface that amounts to less then 1 inch - WPC - Mt. Holly - Upton - I am going with like I said earlier if for some strange reason they change their outlook later tonight/tomorrow I will agree with them - nobody here except maybe a MET or 2 have the forecasting skills they do . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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