NJwx85 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Long range NAM, but this is closer to what you would want to see to get a strong system this far North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 23 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Long range NAM, but this is closer to what you would want to see to get a strong system this far North. The NAM is very close to something significant for far NW areas. Starting to pick up on cooler surfaces temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 1 minute ago, snywx said: The NAM is very close to something significant for far NW areas. Starting to pick up on cooler surfaces temps. Not really, did you happen to notice that the surface freezing line is way up near the Canadian border? If Albany is 42 degrees and Binghampton is 40, I doubt anyone around here sees snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Not really, did you happen to notice that the surface freezing line is way up near the Canadian border? If Albany is 42 degrees and Binghampton is 40, I doubt anyone around here sees snow. I still think there will be colder trends ahead especially for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: I still think there will be colder trends ahead especially for the interior. It's fine to say that I guess, but what are you looking at to make these claims? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 21 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Not really, did you happen to notice that the surface freezing line is way up near the Canadian border? If Albany is 42 degrees and Binghampton is 40, I doubt anyone around here sees snow. THIS is a post that exposes you and a few others on this board for the lack of knowledge that you have. Surface temperatures are NOT exclusive of latitude. Adiabatic cooling combined with low H5 heights and temps CAN allow for quite heavy thump to occur. Read more and post less! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 55 minutes ago, Enigma said: THIS is a post that exposes you and a few others on this board for the lack of knowledge that you have. Surface temperatures are NOT exclusive of latitude. Adiabatic cooling combined with low H5 heights and temps CAN allow for quite heavy thump to occur. Read more and post less! I know what adiabatic cooling is, but nice attempt on your "gotcha" post. If you think you're going to cool the surface that much, then be my guest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 12 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I know what adiabatic cooling is, but nice attempt on your "gotcha" post. If you think you're going to cool the surface that much, then be my guest. Describe it for us in your own words. For the record, I feel everyone who could conceivably post in here is most likely cooked regarding any snow threat this week. But I'll side with the red taggers for objective analyses of the facts as they currently appear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Unless we get a true bomb, no one is dynamic cooling their way to snow without serious elevation. We need to trend back to the bomb solutions and I'm talking under 980mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 1 hour ago, Juliancolton said: Describe it for us in your own words. For the record, I feel everyone who could conceivably post in here is most likely cooked regarding any snow threat this week. But I'll side with the red taggers for objective analyses of the facts as they currently appear. It’s the process of releasing heat through drops in air pressure. As the pressure on an air partical is reduced, it’s able to expand which increases volume and reduces heat. Obviously the stronger the lift, the higher these particals reach and the lower the air pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Unless we get a true bomb, no one is dynamic cooling their way to snow without serious elevation. We need to trend back to the bomb solutions and I'm talking under 980mb So what @Enigma is arguing is that higher terrain, aided by orographic lift will see snow thanks to adiabatic cooling. With the storm trending further South I just don’t see it, but I’ll be the first to admit it if I end up wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 I think the issue is in the scenario it's almost impossible to get such a weak solution.. the storm will trend stronger or not at all and probably stronger which means heavy snow on the backside. There isn't a 570 block up north and this low pressure gradually dances off the coast in a stagnant temp pattern. This is typical model bias at 4-5 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 To snow or not to snow, that is the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: So what @Enigma is arguing is that higher terrain, aided by orographic lift will see snow thanks to adiabatic cooling. With the storm trending further South I just don’t see it, but I’ll be the first to admit it if I end up wrong. Where is it trending south? 18z gfs north!!! Your wishcasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 47 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Where is it trending south? 18z gfs north!!! Your wishcasting Didn’t look at the 18z GFS, but one model run or cycle doesn’t quantify a trend. The trend the last couple of days has been to the South overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 @LongBeachSurfFreak the 18z GFS was an improvement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: @LongBeachSurfFreak the 18z GFS was an improvement Let’s let this play out before anyone (myself included) claims victory. The main shortwave is still off the coast and not sampled. I think we have a better idea tomorrow. Right now pretty much anything is sill on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 6 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Let’s let this play out before anyone (myself included) claims victory. The main shortwave is still off the coast and not sampled. I think we have a better idea tomorrow. Right now pretty much anything is sill on the table. Is any frozen precip of consequence by the coast on the table too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 20 minutes ago, sferic said: Is any frozen precip of consequence by the coast on the table too? I wouldn’t think so. I would put chances at less then 10%. I could see a scenerio where as the storm is pulling away and the ccb is mature if we get into heavy enough rates some wet snow could mix in at the coast. We saw this during December 92. Though that storm had a better cold air drain. If you want to see snow head to mt pocono. At this point it’s almost like a bad joke that I keep bringing that location up. But I think they have a shot at a real blue bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 The Atlantic ridge has been so amplified, loop the GFS and you'll see a counter clockwise moisture flow from the Atlantic. This storm and the one after will not be able to move very far east. This is interesting because of 570 block overtop and SSTs are so warm right now, we already did a 950mb low this Winter. It has the potential to bomb and stall on the coast for 2,3,4 days. Some place could localize realistically 40-45" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 10 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I wouldn’t think so. I would put chances at less then 10%. I could see a scenerio where as the storm is pulling away and the ccb is mature if we get into heavy enough rates some wet snow could mix in at the coast. We saw this during December 92. Though that storm had a better cold air drain. If you want to see snow head to mt pocono. At this point it’s almost like a bad joke that I keep bringing that location up. But I think they have a shot at a real blue bomb Actually my second home at Liberty NY Elev 1500 feet might be the place to go, by the way what is a blue bomb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 I just saw the eps members. There are some nice members for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 4 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: The Atlantic ridge has been so amplified, loop the GFS and you'll see a counter clockwise moisture flow from the Atlantic. This storm and the one after will not be able to move very far east. This is interesting because of 570 block overtop and SSTs are so warm right now, we already did a 950mb low this Winter. It has the potential to bomb and stall on the coast for 2,3,4 days. Some place could localize realistically 40-45" I expect this to be rain for both storms. I have no expectations of any big snowstorms in March in any of the populated areas in the metro area outside higher elevations. This does not mean it can't happen, just that it is unlikely IMO. That is the gist of what I am reading here. Dec 92 was mainly a wind/rain storm with a few flurries at the end for my area. It was a vicious storm and I for one do not want to see a repeat. The tunnels are damaged enough from Sandy and I would think they would sustain even more damage with these high tides some of you are worried about. So I hope it misses. Perhaps the blocking will not allow that though. So what are the chances we get away with a total miss or very weakened system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 8 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: I expect this to be rain for both storms. I have no expectations of any big snowstorms in March in any of the populated areas in the metro area outside higher elevations. This does not mean it can't happen, just that it is unlikely IMO. That is the gist of what I am reading here. Dec 92 was mainly a wind/rain storm with a few flurries at the end for my area. It was a vicious storm and I for one do not want to see a repeat. The tunnels are damaged enough from Sandy and I would think they would sustain even more damage with these high tides some of you are worried about. So I hope it misses. Perhaps the blocking will not allow that though. So what are the chances we get away with a total miss or very weakened system? I think most likely is the scenario being shown yesterday on most models with the low going off southern NJ and it being a cold heavy rain outside highly elevated areas in this subforum, and New England getting the most snow overall. Maybe there’s a short period of snow around the city at the end that amounts to little. The tidal flooding and erosion would be the biggest story by far, next to river flooding from several inches of rain. Sorry, but the strong easterly flow is terrible for snow near the coast with little pre existing cold. We’ve seen this movie before in Dec 1992 and April 1997. I’m just not buying the sheared out solutions that leave us on the northern fringe of the heavy stuff, and this evening we already see the start of it coming back on the GEFS. There’s also the chance at it really ramping up and tracking over NYC. That IMO would be a better case than the southern NJ track-not as much easterly flow and there would be a dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 570 block to the north.. it may not start as snow but could be a 1-2 day backside blizzard as the low cannot go any further east and all the conditions are right for a rapid deepening. I'm calling for a blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 12 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: I expect this to be rain for both storms. I have no expectations of any big snowstorms in March in any of the populated areas in the metro area outside higher elevations. This does not mean it can't happen, just that it is unlikely IMO. That is the gist of what I am reading here. Dec 92 was mainly a wind/rain storm with a few flurries at the end for my area. It was a vicious storm and I for one do not want to see a repeat. The tunnels are damaged enough from Sandy and I would think they would sustain even more damage with these high tides some of you are worried about. So I hope it misses. Perhaps the blocking will not allow that though. So what are the chances we get away with a total miss or very weakened system? Sandy's surge was 4-5 feet above Irene's or anything seen in recorded history in these parts from northern LBI through NYC and western LI (that's a huge departure from previous records). There is zero risk of tidal surges being anywhere near Sandy levels, let alone Irene levels. Some minor to moderate coastal flooding is, indeed, possible, but we're not goint to see Manhattan (and its tunnels) flooded from tidal sources. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Nam has snow for interior areas as the storm deepends near our lattitide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Nam has snow for the NYC area at 84 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Coast crusher in MASS.....they can have it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, Dan76 said: Coast crusher in MASS.....they can have it You already gave up on winter ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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