Rjay Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, doncat said: Wow alot to take in...flood watches, high wind watches, coastal flooding and possible snow...Why we love weather. Exactly! There's so much to talk about. Everyone should concentrate on that and not each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, doncat said: Wow alot to take in...flood watches, high wind watches, coastal flooding and possible snow...Why we love weather. Agreed! As long as there are no lives lost or property damages, amazing to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, doncat said: Wow alot to take in...flood watches, high wind watches, coastal flooding and possible snow...Why we love weather. Most Everyone here will be paying the most attention to the blue showing up on the radar and hourly surface reports - because that is what the big debate is about now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 48 hours out, first guess on actual accumulations Pink - Coating to 2" Light Blue - 1-3" Dark Blue - 2-4" Green - 3-6" Red - 4-8" Black - 12"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 10 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: its only 4:23 - huh ? sorry, typo, 3:56........still my point holds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Can some red taggers respond. Some are saying point blank that a snowy solution cannot happen. However, this has happened in warm air masses before. The NAM is obviously the high end outlier. However, the same can be said about the GEM being the low outlier. Red taggers - is a somewhat snowy solution possible for NYC, coastal CT and non hill tops? Or in this set up is 1 inch plus of snow impossible? Yes. Anytime a low closes off that like if there is even a borderline air mass in place it’s going to snow. There is no way that at hour 43-48 it’s not snowing in NYC with that setup. The question is will that setup or anything close verify because if it is even slightly less dynamic then it’s just a rain/snow mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, hazwoper said: sorry, typo, 3:56........still my point holds which areas were the watches issued for ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 I was confident until today that this was all rain for about 75% of our subforum and now I'm not sure what to expect after see the Euro products and the NAM, which hasn't been awful this winter. It's 100% ok to not be sure and to leave some wiggle room to change your call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: Yes. Anytime a low closes off that like if there is even a borderline air mass in place it’s going to snow. There is no way that at hour 43-48 it’s not snowing in NYC with that setup. The question is will that setup or anything close verify because if it is even slightly less dynamic then it’s just a rain/snow mix Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, NEG NAO said: which areas were the watches issued for ? further north....but Mt Holly is specifically pointing out that a snowier solution further south is not out of the question. I can think of many times when I wasnt under a watch 48 hours out and wound up getting dumped on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 It’s probably a more dynamic setup down this way than April 97. Also remember April 97 was massive bad luck for NYC. Dry air entrusion in the 600-800 layer killed the event for NYC despite the uppper low track being almost perfect. It was maybe a bit too close by but it’s a setup that causes major snow 9 of 10 times otherwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, Rjay said: I was confident until today that this was all rain for about 75% of our subforum and now I'm not sure what to expect after see the Euro products and the NAM, which hasn't been awful this winter. It's 100% ok to not be sure and to leave some wiggle room to change your call. To be fair I think Upton and Mt. Holly should have left the door open a little wider for significant changes in their forecast during the next 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Yes. Anytime a low closes off that like if there is even a borderline air mass in place it’s going to snow. There is no way that at hour 43-48 it’s not snowing in NYC with that setup. The question is will that setup or anything close verify because if it is even slightly less dynamic then it’s just a rain/snow mix What would be the first sign that a snowier solution is likely (besides seeing snow flakes outside your window lol), a sub 980 low further east than modeled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It’s probably a more dynamic setup down this way than April 97. Also remember April 97 was massive bad luck for NYC. Dry air entrusion in the 600-800 layer killed the event for NYC despite the uppper low track being almost perfect. It was maybe a bit too close by but it’s a setup that causes major snow 9 of 10 times otherwise They had 6-8 inches of snow on the Jersey Shore with that storm. We were in the dry slot. What was the reason that JFK got 4-5 inches of snow in April 1996 and NYC got less than one inch? That one also dropped 6-8 inches on the Jersey Shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 GFS stalls over the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, Paragon said: What would be the first sign that a snowier solution is likely (besides seeing snow flakes outside your window lol), a sub 980 low further east than modeled? Any consistent solutions placing a closing off or close to vertically stacked low 50-100 Miles E-SE of NYC like the NAM. As bluewave said that is about the only scenario where we go to rain to snow here other than the wave forming along a boundary as it moves offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 21 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Can some red taggers respond. Some are saying point blank that a snowy solution cannot happen. However, this has happened in warm air masses before. The NAM is obviously the high end outlier. However, the same can be said about the GEM being the low outlier. Red taggers - is a somewhat snowy solution possible for NYC, coastal CT and non hill tops? Or in this set up is 1 inch plus of snow impossible? We need a perfect closing off process and location to overcome the marginal airmass. We have gone from rain to snow several times in the past with a perfect UA set up. But we first need to see some model continuity next few runs. Euro and NAM went....colder 12z yesterday....warmer 0z last night....colder today. Model continuity has really been lacking with this system so far. The good news is that we don't have to make any final commitments in the forecast until tomorrow since the main forecast challenge is Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: Any consistent solutions placing a closing off or close to vertically stacked low 50-100 Miles E-SE of NYC like the NAM. As bluewave said that is about the only scenario where we go to rain to snow here other than the wave forming along a boundary as it moves offshore It's interesting to see the Euro and NAM in the same camp. We've seen this before. Maybe this will reverse the March 2001 curse if it does happen, though it's still a low probability outcome (20%?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: GFS stalls over the benchmark. And further south than last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, bluewave said: We need a perfect closing off process and location to overcome the marginal airmass. We have gone from rain to snow several times in the past with a perfect UA set up. But we first need to see some model continuity next few runs. Euro and NAM went....colder 12z yesterday....warmer 0z last night....colder today. Model continuity has really been lacking with this system so far. The good news is that we don't have to make any final commitments in the forecast until tomorrow since the main forecast challenge won't be until Friday. Any ingredients still offshore in poor sampling areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Chance of a WWA or WSW for NYC if all goes well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: We need a perfect closing off process and location to overcome the marginal airmass. We have gone from rain to snow several times in the past with a perfect UA set up. But we first need to see some model continuity next few runs. Euro and NAM went....colder 12z yesterday....warmer 0z last night....colder today. Model continuity has really been lacking with this system so far. The good news is that we don't have to make any final commitments in the forecast until tomorrow since the main forecast challenge won't be until Friday. I said yesterday I was afraid the Euro was too far NORTH and it was the furthest south at the time. This was as all the runs came in way north last night. I’m almost still more concerned this could end up more south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 14 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 48 hours out, first guess on actual accumulations Pink - Coating to 2" Light Blue - 1-3" Dark Blue - 2-4" Green - 3-6" Red - 4-8" Black - 12"+ Syracuse has watch for near 16 inches. Your map nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, Paragon said: Any ingredients still offshore in poor sampling areas? The models have never really done well in retrograding blocking situations. We probably just need another run or two to sort out the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 To show you just how conservative Upton is with the snow potential, they only forecast up to a half an inch in Newburgh! Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: We need a perfect closing off process and location to overcome the marginal airmass. We have gone from rain to snow several times in the past with a perfect UA set up. But we first need to see some model continuity next few runs. Euro and NAM went....colder 12z yesterday....warmer 0z last night....colder today. Model continuity has really been lacking with this system so far. The good news is that we don't have to make any final commitments in the forecast until tomorrow since the main forecast challenge is Friday. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, Animal said: Syracuse has watch for near 16 inches. Your map nothing. And if the further SE solutions verify they will get nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Going down with the ship I see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Plenty of moisture on the recent gfs runs. some unlucky person may approach 3 to 3.5 inches of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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