Ericjcrash Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: Okay great Yeah, easy to toss NAM, but it's got a little support from the Euro. Interested in seeing if the RGEM leans toward the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Another huge 180 degree different run, huge shift, from the flip flopping, horrible NAM. Some of you guys let the NAM play you like a $3 dollar horn. This storm hasn’t changed in days. Still no cold air, zero cold air source, no cold air to the north to wrap in. This is not a metro area snow event, never has been never will be. Again, trace for the city maybe, Trace to maybe 1” for the north and west suburbs. This is strictly a dynamically cooled snow event for the higher elevations from Sussex and Orange County on north. People just continue to live and die with fantasy rogue snowy model run and dreams that “it’s getting colder”. Nothing has changed nothing will I agree with you and so does Upton and Mt. Holly. I said earlier in the day the NAM was total BS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Idk why a lot people here get so angry so quickly. It's the weather. Discuss, debate and disagree but don't fight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, Neblizzard said: You were hugging the European all winter before it crapped the bed many times. You obviously don’t know how meteorology works. Of course there is no arctic source but if you get a a perfect time closed low, dynamics and adiabatic cooling take care of that problem . Exactly Chiristmas 2002 is an example Retrogading storm of Feb 2010 is another example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 In March, you can snow with thickness around 542. You definitely don't need as much of a cold air source to snow in early met. Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 13 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Uh ? I said the NAM precip type output is wrong in many areas near the coast - replace the blue with green and erase most of the snowfall map to show nothing near the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: LOL So the Euro and EPS are also bull**** ? To be fair, the 18z NAM is the 12z Euro on roids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Why haven't you been banned yet? Are you seriously dismissing every model that shows snow ? You must be new to weather because the models are grasping the block up north. Maybe you guys can have a wager. If neither of you get an inch, you don't post for a month. If either of you do, he goes bye-bye for a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: Idk why a lot people here get so angry so quickly. It's the weather. Discuss, debate and disagree but don't fight. We also have people on here that provoke things purposely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: To be fair, the NAM is the 12z Euro on roids. Of course but saying that the nam is wrong because it shows snow is wrong. What about the Euro and eps ? The other models don't show snow right now but they came more southeast at 12z. Also , hi res models handle these storms better. The pattern is a good one for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: I said the NAM precip type output is wrong in many areas near the coast - replace the blue with green and erase most of the snowfall map to show nothing near the coast What's your reason ? Nothing suggests this will be an all rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 4 EPS members show 6"+ for KNYC and most have at least 2-4" which is a drastic improvement from last night which had at least half with 0. (wxbell alg) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Of course but saying that the nam.is wrong because it shows snow is stupid. What about the Euro and eps ? The other models don't show snow right now but they came more southeast at 12z. Also , hi res models handle these storms better. ask MT. Holly and Upton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, Neblizzard said: You were hugging the European all winter before it crapped the bed many times. You obviously don’t know how meteorology works. Of course there is no arctic source but if you get a a perfect time closed low, dynamics and adiabatic cooling take care of that problem . This is a rainstorm for the NYC metro period. I don’t care what rogue model runs show and I’m well aware of what dynamic cooling is and NYC and it’s suburbs still aren’t seeing a snowstorm. The storm setup hasn’t changed. This is a snowstorm for upstate New York and the higher terrain of NW NJ and Orange County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Well also have people on here that provoke things purposely. Snowman saying "no snow" and "torch" a couple times a day shouldn't be enough to put people on tilt. He's batting .095 over the last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: ask MT. Holly and Upton They will not change their forecast because off of 1 model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erfus Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: What's your reason ? Nothing suggests this will be an all rain event. Even the 12z GFS in its last couple panels showed NYC ending as snow. See page 12, snowgoose has a good explanation. I think the over-reliance on the veracity of the popular snow maps is causing some confusion re: the dynamic nature of this system. How much is an open question, but it seems most models are showing a rain to snow type scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 6 minutes ago, Rjay said: Idk why a lot people here get so angry so quickly. It's the weather. Discuss, debate and disagree but don't fight. I am debating and I am going with Mt. Holly and Upton in this situation as opposed to non - mets here - if they all of a sudden change to a snowier solution in their future packages I will go with them in this situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: ask MT. Holly and Upton I did...... 4:56 discussion: Steady precip associated with the weak sfc low to the west will continue over the area Thursday night as the second low strengthens off the coast. Temperatures will be warm enough for all rain most of Thu night, but then the colder air will begin to move southward across the Poconos by dawn Friday. The colder air will only deepen Friday, so a WSW Watch flag for accumulating snow is being issued. Some of the bufkit profiles are suggesting 5 to 7 inches could occur. It will be a wet heavy snow. Confid in accumulating snow further south is low (but not zero) attm. The 12Z NAM model continued its cold solution for snow much further south. They obviously are not discounting it, unlike yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, snowman19 said: This is a rainstorm for the NYC metro period. I don’t care what rogue model runs show and I’m well aware of what dynamic cooling is and NYC and it’s suburbs still aren’t seeing a snowstorm. The storm setup hasn’t changed. This is a snowstorm for upstate New York and the higher terrain of NW NJ and Orange County Ok snow88 vs snowman19 let the fun begin ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: Snowman saying "no snow" and "torch" a couple times a day shouldn't be enough to put people on tilt. He's batting .095 over the last few years. Lol, have to find new name for the below .100 threshold, even Mendoza does better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, snowman19 said: This is a rainstorm for the NYC metro period. I don’t care what rogue model runs show and I’m well aware of what dynamic cooling is and NYC and it’s suburbs still aren’t seeing a snowstorm. The storm setup hasn’t changed. This is a snowstorm for upstate New York and the higher terrain of NW NJ and Orange County What’s your call for my street. mt Holly calling for all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, erfus said: Even the 12z GFS in its last couple panels showed NYC ending as snow. See page 12, snowgoose has a good explanation. I think the over-reliance on the veracity of the popular snow maps is causing some confusion re: the dynamic nature of this system. How much is an open question, but it seems most models are showing a rain to snow type scenario. He stated that the block should force this storm further south which is very true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 The 18z German model has at least a few inches of snow for most here and over 3" of rain in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, hazwoper said: I did...... 4:56 discussion: Steady precip associated with the weak sfc low to the west will continue over the area Thursday night as the second low strengthens off the coast. Temperatures will be warm enough for all rain most of Thu night, but then the colder air will begin to move southward across the Poconos by dawn Friday. The colder air will only deepen Friday, so a WSW Watch flag for accumulating snow is being issued. Some of the bufkit profiles are suggesting 5 to 7 inches could occur. It will be a wet heavy snow. Confid in accumulating snow further south is low (but not zero) attm. The 12Z NAM model continued its cold solution for snow much further south. its only 4:23 - huh ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, Rjay said: Snowman saying "no snow" and "torch" a couple times a day shouldn't be enough to put people on tilt. He's batting .095 over the last few years. He should be nearing his 5 post per day max which is good so we don’t have to listen to him for another 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, Animal said: What’s your call for my street. mt Holly calling for all rain. 10-15"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Can some red taggers respond. Some are saying point blank that a snowy solution cannot happen. However, this has happened in warm air masses before. The NAM is obviously the high end outlier. However, the same can be said about the GEM being the low outlier. Red taggers - is a somewhat snowy solution possible for NYC, coastal CT and non hill tops? Or in this set up is 1 inch plus of snow impossible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Wow alot to take in...flood watches, high wind watches, coastal flooding and possible snow...Why we love weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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