USCG RS Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 That's why I said this would be epic. Unfortunately it was a shift towards the Euro and others.Honestly, I would not discount this solution. Synoptically it makes sense, and it is one of those runs that shows what happens if the SLP closes off in the correct area. That being said, of course, i would not put too much stock in it unless 00z spits out something similar Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: I believe 2/10/10 was also an analog. How about the retrogading storm ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 The 3km NAM also took a step in the direction of the 18z 12 km version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: and Mt. Holly has little or no snow accumulation for most of the areas in NJ that show close to a foot on the 18Z NAM http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KPHI.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The 3km NAM also took a step in the direction of the 18z 12 km version. The 3km is well south of previous run with the primary. By 100+ miles. Models might finally be feeling the block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 20 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Almost hurricane force winds just above the surface, and still strengthening That’s incredible for 925 winds, at first I thought it was 850. Damaging wind threat is real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, ag3 said: The 3km is well south of previous run with the primary. By 100+ miles. Models might finally be feeling the block. Near 6 inches on the 3k Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike1984 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, ag3 said: The 3km is well south of previous run with the primary. By 100+ miles. Models might finally be feeling the block. Or this run is completely out to lunch. 0z will be hugely telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, mike1984 said: Or this run is completely out to lunch. 0z will be hugely telling. the precip type is out to lunch - the precip totals are closer to reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Pivotal jackpots Edison with a hair under 20". Just wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1. Mount Holly has not updated their snowfall products yet. 2. Be careful with NAM...there are places in upstate NY that went from 25 in. to 2 in. in 24 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 9 minutes ago, bluewave said: That is the only way to do it with a rain to snow scenario like Christmas 2002 or April 1982. A closed low perfectly placed can save the day. April 1982 was unlike 12/2002 or now. There was arctic air in play for that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 A weaker primary means less warm air thrown north initially. So hopefully that would mean less to have to mix out. It would be nice if we could get the 500mb low to close off just a little further south of the NAM this run, although obviously it was epic on its own. These closed 500mb lows can surprise on the west side of them as others have pointed out. But the NAM is probably overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Coastal Flood Watch and a Flood Watch are now in effect for my area beginning late Thursday night. Mt.Holly saying minor to moderate coastal flooding with the Friday morning and evening high tides and moderate to major possible with the Saturday morning and evening high tide cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 18z 3k NAM just dropped a 30" spot on @Animal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, Enigma said: 1. Mount Holly has not updated their snowfall products yet. 2. Be careful with NAM...there are places in upstate NY that went from 25 in. to 2 in. in 24 hr. they have released their 3:30 forecast - mainly liquid http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KPHI.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, Rtd208 said: Coastal Flood Watch and a Flood Watch are now in effect for my area beginning late Thursday night. Mt.Holly saying minor to moderate coastal flooding with the Friday morning and evening high tides and moderate to major possible with the Saturday morning and evening high tide cycles. Might need a blizzard watch added on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Coastal Flood Watch and a Flood Watch are now in effect for my area beginning late Thursday night. Mt.Holly saying minor to moderate coastal flooding with the Friday morning and evening high tides and moderate to major possible with the Saturday morning and evening high tide cycles. you forgot to mention little or no snow accumulation http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KPHI.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 16 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I believe 2/10/10 was also an analog. that is nothing like 2/10/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, friedmators said: Might need a blizzard watch added on. yes maybe in northwest NJ and points north and west - read Mt. Holly http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KPHI.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, friedmators said: Might need a blizzard watch added on. They don't exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Honestly if we only cared about what the NWS had to say, we wouldn't need to look at models or even have discussions. NWS playing it conservative, per the usual. Not saying that's the wrong move up to now, however this will end up being a surprise to many if the colder scenarios end up verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: the precip type is out to lunch - the precip totals are closer to reality Uh ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: They don't exist. Yes, they did away with blizzard watches because they confused the public. Personally I think it's a waste of time, considering more than half the public doesn't know the difference between a watch and a warning. https://www.weather.gov/bgm/WinterTerms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 8 minutes ago, Enigma said: 1. Mount Holly has not updated their snowfall products yet. 2. Be careful with NAM...there are places in upstate NY that went from 25 in. to 2 in. in 24 hr. The reason why it has shifted east is because the models are finally grasping on to the blocking. 3 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: that is nothing like 2/10/10 The other February storm 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Honestly if we only cared about what the NWS had to say, we wouldn't need to look at models or even have discussions. NWS playing it conservative, per the usual. Not saying that's the wrong move up to now, however this will end up being a surprise to many if the colder scenarios end up verifying. Agree They always go conservative until the storm starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: The reason why it has shifted east is because the models are finally grasping on to the blocking. The other February storm Agree They always go conservative until the storm starts. much more like 2/26-27 than 2/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 16 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: and Mt. Holly has little or no snow accumulation for most of the areas in NJ that show close to a foot on the 18Z NAM http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KPHI.html Because it is one model run of one model....SMDH AND....that 3:30 update was surely written well before they saw the 18Z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 10 minutes ago, Enigma said: 1. Mount Holly has not updated their snowfall products yet. 2. Be careful with NAM...there are places in upstate NY that went from 25 in. to 2 in. in 24 hr. Nobody is taking an 18z NAM verbatim that departs so much form it's 12z run. But the EPS mean did shift colder at 12z. The 0z tonight and 12z runs tomorrow should have a better handle on things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: Honestly if we only cared about what the NWS had to say, we wouldn't need to look at models or even have discussions. NWS playing it conservative, per the usual. Not saying that's the wrong move up to now, however this will end up being a surprise to many if the colder scenarios end up verifying. From Upton: AS FOR ANY SNOWFALL, THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, IN PARTICULAR ORANGE COUNTY, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Another huge 180 degree different run, huge shift, from the flip flopping, horrible NAM. Some of you guys let the NAM play you like a $3 dollar horn. This storm hasn’t changed in days. Still no cold air, zero cold air source, no cold air to the north to wrap in. This is not a metro area snow event, never has been never will be. Again, trace for the city maybe, Trace to maybe 1” for the north and west suburbs. This is strictly a dynamically cooled snow event for the higher elevations from Sussex and Orange County on north. People just continue to live and die with fantasy rogue snowy model run and dreams that “it’s getting colder”. Nothing has changed nothing will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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