MJO812 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: There's definitely going to be a strong coastal though with major impacts. Nobody escapes with the AO at -4 (lowest of season) and the lowest NAO in months. There will be surprises and models aren't locked in yet. Having the Epo negative will also help us with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 Euro snowmap distribution looks almost exactly like my snow map from yesterday. I think we get more snow than what the models are depicting. I think this is a i95 up to Trenton paste job. Probably just north and west of that line could get clobbered with 12+ everyone was laughing at it i laughed too. Hope it trends better P.s. I think the storm stalls and loops a bit like the nam. Watch that on future runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: There's definitely going to be a strong coastal though with major impacts. Nobody escapes with the AO at -4 (lowest of season) and the lowest NAO in months. There will be surprises and models aren't locked in yet. The storm is progressive though, not like something that would sit off the NJ coast a la 12/92. If it stalls it would happen off Cape Cod. That makes the severe impacts focus east of here in New England. There’ll be some coastal flooding but it’ll be a typical windy, rainy Thu night, maybe snowy Fri morning for most of the metro. The story will be what happens north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The storm is progressive though, not like something that would sit off the NJ coast a la 12/92. If it stalls it would happen off Cape Cod. That makes the severe impacts focus east of here in New England. There’ll be some coastal flooding but it’ll be a typical windy, rainy Thu night, maybe snowy Fri morning for most of the metro. The story will be what happens north of us. The NAM disagrees, and I know I criticize that model a lot, but it has done well this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 FYI-the Euro snowmap https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/new-york/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20180304-1800z.html It does get maybe 0.5" liquid as snow to NYC and western 2/3 of Long Island. The Tappan Zee bridge on north is where the major snow totals begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Funny how this place changes in 24 hours, yesterday the ECM was supposedly on crack and everyone laughing at it. Now it’s the concrete solution. For the ones concerned that ohh no, all the cold will still be back in Canada, it’ll be creating its own cold in a sense, with 500mb crashing / mixing things up on its own. Rarely do we see 500mb bomb like this crashing and forming directly overhead...surface Lows yes, but not 500mb’s. In a sense it forms as fast as a surface low does, also rare. interested to see how dramatic / sudden the change with the winds will be once it starts backing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The NAM disagrees, and I know I criticize that model a lot, but it has done well this year. It's something to watch. If it does stall/spin around further west, the coastal flood threat starts to increase again. I'm a little encouraged that the primary seems to want to track a little further south and transfer slightly sooner on guidance today. Means a little less warm air to overcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 EPS is coming in colder and further east with the secondary compared to 0z. It still shows the CCB band over NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Hurricane hunters will be flying near coastal storm tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Long range and a bit OT, but gfs shows a possible repeat next Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, Sophisticated Skeptic said: Long range and a bit OT, but gfs shows a possible repeat next Thursday. looks like the same issues with a cruddy airmass. Would have been an epic stretch had their been any arctic air around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 This is not, never was and never will be a New York City snowstorm. The city will be lucky to see a trace. Even up by me in Rockland County, this is a trace to maybe if lucky, a 1 inch event. This is a snowstorm for the higher elevations in Sussex and Orange Counties on north. People are simply wishcasting and latching on to whatever model shows the most snow. And contrary to what some are saying here, this event is not “getting colder”. There is no cold air to wrap in. Dynamic cooling from aloft yes. Some just don’t know what they are talking about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: This is not, never was and never will be a New York City snowstorm. The city will be lucky to see a trace. Even up by me in Rockland County, this is a trade to maybe if lucky, a 1 inch event. This is a snowstorm for the higher elevations in Sussex and Orange Counties on north. People are simply wishcasting and latching on to whatever model shows the most snow. And contrary to what some are saying here, this event is not “getting colder”. There is no cold air to wrap in. Dynamic cooling from aloft yes. Some just don’t know what they are talking about a few lucky areas on the local coastal plain will cash in on the dynamics but it likely won't be widespread (and that will be a nowcast)....higher elevations different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: looks like the same issues with a cruddy airmass. Would have been an epic stretch had their been any arctic air around. True but one storm at a time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 45 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Having the Epo negative will also help us with this storm. It didn’t. There’s no cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Here you go snowman19 https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/forecast.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Quite possible you may be right but the models are still shifting starting at 18Z its time to be giving more consideration to the mesoscale models rather then the globals since we are approaching the 24 hour mark before the storm begins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: starting at 18Z its time to be giving more consideration to the mesoscale models rather then the globals since we are approaching the 24 hour mark before the storm begins Exactly Mesoscale models haven't been doing too bad this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Flood watch posted for my area while just 15 miles west is a winter storm watch. Sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 18z NAM is running, meanwhile as promised here is my second guess. Light pink - Snow possible Light blue - Snow likely Dark blue - Significant snow likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Nam has the primary well south and weaker so far on the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 18z NAM is running, meanwhile as promised here is my second guess. Light pink - Snow possible Light blue - Snow likely Dark blue - Significant snow likely You stole my snowmap. Isn' there a rule for thievery! Lmao NAM us We are about to get NAM'D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Primary is in WV on the Nam so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 The bickering is getting ridiculous. Grow up. And moderators don’t have all day to prowl around and be babysitters. Act like adults and take the garbage to banter or PMs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Primary is in WV on the Nam so far The weaker primary isn't good. The cold air comes from the 500mb low, not the surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 High Wind Watch just issued here from Friday morning through Saturday morning. Wind gusts up to 60 mph possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Unfortunately, me living right on the coast, probably all rain, which we don't need. I'd expect a lot of streams flooding Thursday/Friday. Depending on where this low stalls, we'll have either a 1-2 foot storm surge, or blowout tides if the storm is farther out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, Rtd208 said: High Wind Watch just issued here from Friday morning through Saturday morning. Given the preponderance of the guidance, that's reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Heavy rain region wide early Friday morning with sub 990mb surface low about 100 miles East of ACY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Same here. 25-35 with gusts to 50-60 mph. So likely power will go out. This town is notorious for power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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