MJO812 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Ukie is also further south with the primary and east with the secondary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 9 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Agreed - I think there will only be a coating if that east of the GSP and south of 78 in NJ - Interior Northern NJ could get moderate accumulations - as of today things could change - surface temps especially during daylight hours will be an issue unless intensity overcomes that If that GGEM verifies that’s probably all that’ll happen. We would need more like the NAM or the Euro showed yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: If that GGEM verifies that’s probably all that’ll happen. We would need more like the NAM or the Euro showed yesterday I think both models show extreme solutions and won't verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 14 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: In an event like this with marginal temps most snow maps will suck except for higher terrain which are well cold enough. We saw how bad they were with the system a couple of weeks ago when we saw 4 inches plus in many areas near NYC The NAM, ECMWF, and RGEM did far better than the GFS. More than likely, the GFS's lower vertical resolution contributed to unrealistically warm forecast soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 As others have said, ignore the snow maps. We need the strong dynamics overhead in order to get snow. The track of the 500mb low, when and where that closes off is the key to everything. This is actually nothing like March 2001. In that situation, the 500mb low closed off over the Ohio Valley and the SLP pinwheeled too far East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 It looks like it’s a bit south of the Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 The UK also matches my idea. Our chance for anything decent snowwise for non north/west/elevated posters is with what precip can rotate around the closed upper low. I can see a situation where it's like 3/7/13 and many of us get several inches, or it really all does focus on the Boston area and I-90 from the easterly jet with little rotating around. It's starting to look like much of what does pivot around falls during the day Friday, which wouldn't be great for accumulating. Besides that this should be a nasty but nothing serious couple of days. The main axis of impacts should be north of us since most of us should dryslot for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 The UKMET is way too far East for most of us. Anything that gives North of Boston snow is generally bad for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 hours ago, NJwx85 said: Yup, all levels of the atmosphere are plenty cold enough with the exception of the surface, which will be corrected by both elevation and adiabatic cooling. That strip that runs from about Butler up through Orange County is in for something special. Pure paste job in surrounding areas. Funny, i remember you ripping me for the elevation comments a few days ago. I’m not trying to stir the pot just mentioning that my thinking looks to play out. Man Mt. Pocono. I still think this is a 90% rain event for the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Funny, i remember you ripping me for the elevation comments a few days ago. I’m not trying to stir the pot just mentioning that my thinking looks to play out. Man Mt. Pocono. I still think this is a 90% rain event for the city I agree, vast majority of this will be rain around the city, and the second part could be white rain if it falls during the day Friday and at light-mod rates. For this area we need the CCB to overproduce on the west side of the closed low and hope it doesn't all focus on I-90 in Mass. This looks to be a climo-reminder kick in the groin storm. It's hard to get through a Nina without your late redeveloping miller B, I-90 focused dumping event sooner or later. The coastal flooding and heavy rain aspect looked more serious down here a few days ago, but the upper air evolution and progressive nature of it should keep it nasty but run-of-the-mill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 10 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Funny, i remember you ripping me for the elevation comments a few days ago. I’m not trying to stir the pot just mentioning that my thinking looks to play out. Man Mt. Pocono. I still think this is a 90% rain event for the city My thinking has changed because the 500mb low track changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: My thinking has changed because the 500mb low track changed. Exactly why I like to weigh heavily climo and analogs at that lead time. Let’s be honest the models are still figuring this out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 28 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The UKMET is way too far East for most of us. Anything that gives North of Boston snow is generally bad for us. Ukie has a ccb over us Could be snow if it comes down heavy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Time to look at high resolutions instead of globals soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Primary further south and secondary also on the Euro through 30 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Euro is east. Similar to the UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 The Euro looks good, 500mb low closes off just offshore, which is a tick East of the 12z NAM position, but it's nothing like the UKIE or GGEM, which is good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, ag3 said: Euro is east. Similar to the UKMET. It's nothing like the UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Euro is a bomb on the benchmark Colder for everyone on the Euro with a further east coastal and a weaker primary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Euro looks very good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 The Euro would at least be a step toward a 3/7/13 solution where it snows hard enough to stick around the city west of the CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, snow1 said: Snow stays offshore. Read more, post less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It's nothing like the UKMET. Yes it is. Euro cut back majorly for interior precip. Keeps the CCB along NJ, LI and SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, snywx said: Euro looks very good Yup Euro looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Where is Ulster? He is usually very active during storm mode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Yup Euro looks great. Lots of mixed opinions on this euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, White Gorilla said: Where is Ulster? North of Orange Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, ag3 said: Yes it is. Euro cut back majorly for interior precip. Keeps the CCB along NJ, LI and SNE. I wasn't comparing it to last nights Euro run, just the UKMET. In any event, I expect a correction back to the West, this is your typical windshield washer scenario. The strong block shouldn't allow the storm to gain as much latitude as shown today on most of the 12z guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: North of Orange LOL, not the place the person Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Few inches on this Euro run for the city with alot more not that far north of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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