Metasequoia Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 9:17 PM, friedmators said: The RAP and NAM are worlds apart tomorrow early afternoon @ 925 Expand How so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 9:20 PM, Metasequoia said: How so? Expand Everyone is above freezing east of the PA/NJ border on the RAP and on the NAM everyone is below freezing including most of LI. The low is much closer. We need to cool the mid-levels while we have the dynamics for the heavier precip to help cool the BL. Basically we need the CCB on top while everything is below 0 @ 850 and above. NAM vs the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 9:25 PM, friedmators said: Everyone is above freezing east of the PA/NJ border on the RAP and on the NAM everyone is below freezing including most of LI. The low is much closer. We need to cool the mid-levels while we have the dynamics for the heavier precip to help cool the BL. Basically we need the CCB on top while everything is below 0 @ 850 and above. NAM vs the world. Expand Thanks. RAP sucks, but I need to see more support for NAM's solution until I'm excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 9:25 PM, friedmators said: Everyone is above freezing east of the PA/NJ border on the RAP and on the NAM everyone is below freezing including most of LI. The low is much closer. We need to cool the mid-levels while we have the dynamics for the heavier precip to help cool the BL. Basically we need the CCB on top while everything is below 0 @ 850 and above. NAM vs the world. Expand Great post! The writing is on the wall with this one, has been for awhile now. The new RGEM is a rainstorm, the HRRRX doesn’t even turn me over to snow through 36 hours, when it’s all over and I’m 35 miles NW of NYC. Upton may actually be too generous showing Rockland at 2 inches. Trace to maybe 1” is more like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 9:29 PM, Neblizzard said: The board was doing great today until you appeared. You should change your name to rainman19. Sorry mods this dude is annoying Expand He knows that. Just gotta ignore him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 9:30 PM, snowman19 said: Great post! The writing is on the wall with this one, has been for awhile now. The new RGEM is a rainstorm, the HRRRX doesn’t even turn me over to snow through 36 hours, when it’s all over and I’m 35 miles NW of NYC. Upton may actually be too generous showing Rockland at 2 inches. Trace to maybe 1” is more like it Expand I don't know the RAP at the end of its cycle though. Is it like the 384hr GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I guess my expectation where I am is for maybe a slushy inch (that would also go for the city). That’s taking the average of the model guidance-NAM would have more but the rest are practically nothing. It’ll depend on the radar and how fast the layers cool. If the radar is showery or the best CCB sets up over NJ, I might not accumulate at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 9:32 PM, friedmators said: I don't know the RAP at the end of its cycle though. Is it like the 384hr GFS? Expand That’s correct, I also think it sucks for thermals. Just my 2 cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 18z GFS looks good, similar to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 9:36 PM, jm1220 said: I guess my expectation where I am is for maybe a slushy inch (that would also go for the city). That’s taking the average of the model guidance-NAM would have more but the rest are practically nothing. It’ll depend on the radar and how fast the layers cool. If the radar is showery or the best CCB sets up over NJ, I might not accumulate at all. Expand agreed -slushy inch or less over NYC and most areas south of 78 in NJ - ground is going to be so soaked with temps staying several degrees above freezing makes any snow that falls difficult to stick to the ground if the temp manages to get down below 35 may stick more easily to power lines and tree branches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 9:40 PM, NJwx85 said: 18z GFS looks good, similar to the Euro. Expand H5 VV's are through the roof so hopefully 925 cools off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Really getting the shaft here locally by NWS, with just a wind advisory, flood watch and no winter weather bulletins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 9:44 PM, friedmators said: H5 VV's are through the roof so hopefully 925 cools off. Expand It's currently 58 degrees here, so it's going to take a while to cool off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 9:45 PM, NJwx85 said: Really getting the shaft here locally by NWS, with just a wind advisory, flood watch and no winter weather bulletins. Expand If there was a reason to issue them they would have and if things change they will - right now no reason to issue anything more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 9:05 PM, snywx said: Upton went with a warning for Orange.. 4-7" w/ 10"+ above 800' Expand I like 10 to max 20 at my house if I get into the ccb and it dumps etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 9:47 PM, NEG NAO said: If there was a reason to issue them they would have and if things change they will - right now no reason to issue anything more Expand To be fair though, they usually split Bergen County in these cases. Where I live is on the edge of the hills and it can sometimes be night and day between here and the Meadowlands no more than 15-20 miles to my Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I'm going to be very interested to see what the 00z models show as these will have the hurricane hunter date ingested in.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 One thing for sure, it should be ripping tomorrow morning as the CCB takes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 9:52 PM, USCG RS said: I'm going to be very interested to see what the 00z models show as these will have the hurricane hunter date ingested in.... Expand where exactly are they going to fly into the storm - where will it be located ? what time ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 What a monster system on the Nam, I think a lot of people will be caught off guard. I think it's going to trend even more powerful tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 9:48 PM, Animal said: I like 10 to max 20 at my house if I get into the ccb and it dumps etc. Expand Agree. Only calling for max 10" here, but you now how that goes up the mountain. 15" wouldn't surprise me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I'm about to throw the towel in for sea level areas. This looks to be elevation driven. I think the I-95 through much of NJ will see white rain when rates increase and regular rain otherwise. Once up into Morris County, I could see lights accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I don’t think the RAP understands evaporating cooling either. Below 0 925 and up with ridiculously heavy precip and it still shows rain. Latest run seemed much improved. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 9:05 PM, snywx said: Upton went with a warning for Orange.. 4-7" w/ 10"+ above 800' Expand Your location should benefit you for this one. I think it'll be iffy here. Powerful storm nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 10:09 PM, friedmators said: I don’t think the RAP understands evaporating cooling either. Below 0 925 and up with ridiculously heavy precip and it still shows rain. Latest run seemed much improved. Expand Evaporative cooling doesn't guaruntee that your wetbulb temperature is below freezing. If there's a huge dewpoint depression after hours of heavy precip, then yeah, it starts to get suspect, but I was never a fan of those rules of thumb along the lines of "if it's below freezing at 925/850 and raining heavily, you'll flip to snow". There are real-world BL processes that can keep you warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 If the 0Z suite doesn't at least give hope to Long Island for a few inches then it's off to House # 2 in Liberty NY. Will have the entire upstate event time lapsed so that should prove fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 10:04 PM, Enigma said: I'm about to throw the towel in for sea level areas. This looks to be elevation driven. I think the I-95 through much of NJ will see white rain when rates increase and regular rain otherwise. Once up into Morris County, I could see lights accumulations. Expand Will be a nasty day for a lot of us, and a forgettable one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 10:15 PM, sferic said: If the 0Z suite doesn't at least give hope to Long Island for a few inches then it's off to House # 2 in Liberty NY. Will have the entire upstate event time lapsed so that should prove fun. Expand Leave tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 10:14 PM, Juliancolton said: Evaporative cooling doesn't guaruntee that your wetbulb temperature is below freezing. If there's a huge dewpoint depression after hours of heavy precip, then yeah, it starts to get suspect, but I was never a fan of those rules of thumb along the lines of "if it's below freezing at 925/850 and raining heavily, you'll flip to snow". There are real-world BL processes that can keep you warm.I buy that. I’m assuming a fetch off the ocean at the surface would do that. I see NE winds though. I guess I’m grasping at straws. Edit maybe nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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