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-NAO Coastal Bomb March 1-3, 2018 Disco


WeatherFeen2000

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The NAM has my attention. I was honestly puzzled how some of the globals had this an all rain event with a deep low cranking and rotting around the BM. I mean that’s close to a classic setup even without a cold air mass to start. No doubt this will end as snow for I-95, it’s just a matter of whether we get nailed with the CCB and get 6”+ or if we get some snow bands at the end for a few slushy inches on colder surfaces. The trend is our friend and the climo is our trend. For those north and west of I-95 who can cash in on the primary low moisture and the easternly fetch banding in New England I really like your chances for a 10”+ storm. No doubt someone is going to get clocked. This should be a lot of fun to track and the wind element could make it special. 

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  On 3/1/2018 at 3:07 AM, Animal said:

I have a flood watch. 

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I have 3 - if you believe the NAM - I would have 4

FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE  
FRIDAY NIGHT...  
...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
SATURDAY EVENING...  
...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY  
MORNING...  

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That said, the NAM is likely too heavy on accums given that ratios will likely be below 10-1 near the city and coast, and we will need the heavy rates to really accumulate. It would also be better for accums with snow at 32 rather than 34. I wouldn’t go higher than 8-1 for ratios in that area. Inland and elevated areas may be 10 or 11-1. 

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  On 3/1/2018 at 3:19 AM, swamplover56 said:

Um colonia/Woodbridge is 6-9 on that map

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Well 7 or so, yes, but I was thinking Bernie Rayo as well, and I don't think we would see 9, haven't yet this year. March storms for this area are not big snowmakers. The 9 on that map is a bit north of here. This would be starting as rain right?

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  On 3/1/2018 at 3:18 AM, jm1220 said:

That said, the NAM is likely too heavy on accums given that ratios will likely be below 10-1 near the city and coast, and we will need the heavy rates to really accumulate. It would also be better for accums with snow at 32 rather than 34. I wouldn’t go higher than 8-1 for ratios in that area. Inland and elevated areas may be 10 or 11-1. 

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It's good to see the Nam colder

I think 2-4 is a good call right now for the area. We still have the overnight models and at 12z tomorrow.

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