NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 11:43 PM, NEG NAO said: as of now it looks like the NAM with its outrageous snow totals will be the worst model for this storm unless it comes into line with the more accurate models at 0Z . Expand Do yourself a favor and look up Bernie Rayno on Twitter and watch his latest periscope. He thinks 3-6” in NYC is a lock and could see 12”+ if the storm bombs out as forecasted. He also believes most of the modeling has the heaviest precipitation too far East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 the 0Z NAM will not be as good as the 18Z NAM...everything is further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 2:08 AM, weatherlogix said: the 0Z NAM will not be as good as the 18Z NAM...everything is further north Expand Simply too early to tell, looks fine so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Very heavy rain everywhere early morning hours Friday as SLP forms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 2:05 AM, NJwx85 said: Do yourself a favor and look up Bernie Rayno on Twitter and watch his latest periscope. He thinks 3-6” in NYC is a lock and could see 12”+ if the storm bombs out as forecasted. He also believes most of the modeling has the heaviest precipitation too far East. Expand The thing that always gets me is that there is a big difference impact wise between 3 and 6 inches; for most of us a slushy 3 is something to be careful in, but 6 is something you'd rather not drive in unless necessary, and above that it's best to stay indoors til its over unless you really, really need to go out, like you're a health worker or cop or something. Still Bernie is a reputable met, so I don't discount him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 NAM is going to be more amped. Temps are really warm for a storm like this, it could bust colder now term Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 2:12 AM, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: NAM is going to be more amped. Temps are really warm for a storm like this, it could bust colder now term Expand The temps will crash once the ULL closes off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Transfer is again pretty far offshore, I think it would be right on the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 2:17 AM, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Transfer is again pretty far offshore, I think it would be right on the coast Expand The SLP is not where you should be looking. The 500mb low closes off right off the NJ coast in a perfect spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Flips to snow for most by hour 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Should be thumping heavy snow across NJ and LHV by Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 2:22 AM, Sn0waddict said: Flips to snow for most by hour 39 Expand 21z Fri (Hr 39 in this case) has seemed for a few runs where the NAM wants to make things colder and have the CCB take over. That would be good since snow would fall at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 2:24 AM, jm1220 said: 21z Fri (Hr 39 in this case) has seemed for a few runs where the NAM wants to make things colder and have the CCB take over. That would be good since snow would fall at night. Expand Models are still too warm and that precip shield should be more tucked in closer to the ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Snow even at the coast this run? BTW great job guys. Love learning here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Also I don’t give a damn about sun angle. The dynamics are off the charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 2:27 AM, NJwx85 said: Also I don’t give a damn about sun angle. The dynamics are off the charts. Expand This its early march, not towards the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 What a crushing job for the interior on the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 977 southeast of Montauk. I'm impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 2:29 AM, Snow88 said: What a crushing job for the interior on the nam Expand Yup, watch that ULL, it’s really all that matters with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Impressive run. I get buried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 2:27 AM, NJwx85 said: Also I don’t give a damn about sun angle. The dynamics are off the charts. Expand Yeah I mean we saw what April 2003 could do with all day time snowstorm that delivered 6-8" so the sun angle argument doesn't hold weight unless snowfall rates are low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Wow, this looks like 6-12” from about Rt.78 north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Stops Friday night, it’s at least 12 hours of heavy wet snow for the interior, maybe more, a bit less for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 2:27 AM, NJwx85 said: Also I don’t give a damn about sun angle. The dynamics are off the charts.Yes. Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 0z NAM is 18-24" up here... Nudity! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I would take snow totals on NAM and cut in half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 2:41 AM, snywx said: 0z NAM is 18-24" up here... Nudity! Expand So I guess your having the party now instead of animal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 2:43 AM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: So I guess your having the party now instead of animal! Expand This might be a storm to visit Mt Pocono for lol. Crazy it was like 80 degrees near there in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 2:43 AM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: So I guess your having the party now instead of animal! Expand lol.. That NAM run was a thing of beauty up here. A yardstick may not be enough to measure the snow in the Catskills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 2:43 AM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: So I guess your having the party now instead of animal! Expand 6-12" for us if it happens wouldn't be anything to sneeze at either- though as Enigma said cut NAM totals in half and you get 3-6" which is still respectable for March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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