WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Nam looks much colder than any model through 84 hrs but it is the nam. I like the track though scoots it out of the Delmarva peninsula. discuss the storm here please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Waves at Buoy 44025 are up to 21' Friday PM. This might be more than the Jan. 04 bomb. Really, it is because more sq. miles of ocean are churned up here with a good easterly fetch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 This has rain to heavy snow past job written all over, marginally cold air around, prime low position, Neg NAO will produce enough cold air for a turn over IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 33 minutes ago, CIK62 said: Waves at Buoy 44025 are up to 21' Friday PM. This might be more than the Jan. 04 bomb. Really, it is because more sq. miles of ocean are churned up here with a good easterly fetch. Winds during the Jan 4th storm were north here hence minimal coastal impacts. I wouldn’t even use the bouy reports for that storm as they are further offshore and had some fetch to build wind waves. Waves at local beaches were minimal during that storm and consisted of longer period ESE ground swell that snuck in from the SE quadrant of the storm. Up in Boston winds were from the ENE and thus onshore and they broke their all time highest storm tide. We will be in a similar situation with this storm as they were in during Jan 4th. Luckily for coastal residents this storm isn’t going to come close to the pressures recorded in that storm and thus record storm tides here aren’t likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 UKMET much further south at 12Z than 0Z run... http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-panel.php?mod=ukmet&run=12&stn=PNM&mode=latest&map=na&lang=en&hh=000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Just now, mikem81 said: UKMET much further south at 12Z than 0Z run... http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-panel.php?mod=ukmet&run=12&stn=PNM&mode=latest&map=na&lang=en&hh=000 and much weaker primary low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 53 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Winds during the Jan 4th storm were north here hence minimal coastal impacts. I wouldn’t even use the bouy reports for that storm as they are further offshore and had some fetch to build wind waves. Waves at local beaches were minimal during that storm and consisted of longer period ESE ground swell that snuck in from the SE quadrant of the storm. Up in Boston winds were from the ENE and thus onshore and they broke their all time highest storm tide. We will be in a similar situation with this storm as they were in during Jan 4th. Luckily for coastal residents this storm isn’t going to come close to the pressures recorded in that storm and thus record storm tides here aren’t likely. I noticed in earlier convo you mentioned the Poconos as the place to be for this upcoming event. I agree, if anyone snows its gonna be in NE PA, Prob those above 1000' in NW NJ/SE NY. New England runs a good risk of staying high and dry with this event. Shunt city.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 26, 2018 Author Share Posted February 26, 2018 23 minutes ago, snywx said: I noticed in earlier convo you mentioned the Poconos as the place to be for this upcoming event. I agree, if anyone snows its gonna be in NE PA, Prob those above 1000' in NW NJ/SE NY. New England runs a good risk of staying high and dry with this event. Shunt city.. I honestly think poconos will turn to heavy snow followed by north New Jersey and even nyc could turn into snow. The cmc depiction is a perfect example of that though on the snowmap it doesn’t show that I think all the columns cool enough for it to snow directly from dynamic cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 15 minutes ago, snywx said: I noticed in earlier convo you mentioned the Poconos as the place to be for this upcoming event. I agree, if anyone snows its gonna be in NE PA, Prob those above 1000' in NW NJ/SE NY. New England runs a good risk of staying high and dry with this event. Shunt city.. Yeah I like mt. Pocono for snow. There elevation is 2,000’ which is exceptionally high for a populated east coast location. Let’s see how things play out before we throw New England out of the mix. I’m planing on heading up to my Vermont share house Thursday night. The house is at 1600’ in the southern greens. I’m planning on snow boarding Friday at Stratton which has a peak elevation of 3875’ which should be plenty high for an all snow event. Using the anologs of March 10 and December 92 east facing slopes had tremendous accumulations due to upslope flow. It will all depend on how far south and east things end up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 35 minutes ago, snywx said: I noticed in earlier convo you mentioned the Poconos as the place to be for this upcoming event. I agree, if anyone snows its gonna be in NE PA, Prob those above 1000' in NW NJ/SE NY. New England runs a good risk of staying high and dry with this event. Shunt city.. Elevated areas in NE PA, NW NJ, and Orange County on north are the places to be if you want to see any snow at all out of Thurs-Fri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 20 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Yeah I like mt. Pocono for snow. There elevation is 2,000’ which is exceptionally high for a populated east coast location. Let’s see how things play out before we throw New England out of the mix. I’m planing on heading up to my Vermont share house Thursday night. The house is at 1600’ in the southern greens. I’m planning on snow boarding Friday at Stratton which has a peak elevation of 3875’ which should be plenty high for an all snow event. Using the anologs of March 10 and December 92 east facing slopes had tremendous accumulations due to upslope flow. It will all depend on how far south and east things end up. Catskills might be the northern extent of anything decent. Still 4 days out so anything is possible but it isn't looking too good for those up in NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 19 minutes ago, snywx said: Catskills might be the northern extent of anything decent. Still 4 days out so anything is possible but it isn't looking too good for those up in NE It’s looking like Anthony may have wishcasted our storm right out to sea... Joke, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the models trend closer and more amped as we head closer as has been the seasonal trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 17 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: It’s looking like Anthony may have wishcasted our storm right out to sea... Joke, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the models trend closer and more amped as we head closer as has been the seasonal trend The Southern track is a problem because when the block eventually sets up, the system is too far offshore now. Before we were looking at a stall near the benchmark before an eventual retrograde. Still time to correct, but it's looking like the biggest impacts will be coastal flooding now, and primarily due to the astronomical high tides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 47 minutes ago, snywx said: Catskills might be the northern extent of anything decent. Still 4 days out so anything is possible but it isn't looking too good for those up in NE The ULL to the lakes is only 2-3 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 52 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Elevated areas in NE PA, NW NJ, and Orange County on north are the places to be if you want to see any snow at all out of Thurs-Fri Yeah, after 2" of rain 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 3 minutes ago, ag3 said: Yeah, after 2" of rain 1st. It’s not going to be 2” of rain above 2k. After some brief light rain to start any decent rates will bring down cold enough air for those areas to snow. There is no mid level warmth with that low track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 33 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: It’s not going to be 2” of rain above 2k. After some brief light rain to start any decent rates will bring down cold enough air for those areas to snow. There is no mid level warmth with that low track LOL, The surface is almost 50 degrees. You need to be out near Mansfield, PA to see snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 12z EPS mean is drier than the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 22 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: LOL, The surface is almost 50 degrees. You need to be out near Mansfield, PA to see snow. Yep. The folks that wanted it south and weaker got their wish lol, it’s all rain all the way to high point state park in NW NJ lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 31 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: LOL, The surface is almost 50 degrees. You need to be out near Mansfield, PA to see snow. Another terrible comment. You need a break. Your posting verbatim images with zero meteorology. It’s going to snow at 2k and allot. These runs are chasing convection. This will be further Nw with a larger, greater precip field Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Another terrible comment. You need a break. Your posting verbatim images with zero meteorology. It’s going to snow at 2k and allot. These runs are chasing convection. This will be further Nw with a larger, greater precip field Take the snowgoggles off. You're not going to snow with the surface in the mid-upper 40's. You could snow above 2k, where almost nobody in this sub-forum lives. Congrats Binghampton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 24 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Take the snowgoggles off. You're not going to snow with the surface in the mid-upper 40's. You could snow above 2k, where almost nobody in this sub-forum lives. Congrats Binghampton. I can see areas like high point, towns in and around lake harmony pa, shawangunk ridge snow but that's exactly it... not many live there. I'm located in the extreme nw corner of the Upton CWA at 850' and I'm expecting 90% rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Just now, snywx said: I can see areas like high point, towns in and around lake harmony pa, shawangunk ridge snow but that's exactly it... not many live there. I'm located in the extreme nw corner of the Upton CWA at 850' and I'm expecting 90% rain. Exactly. There could be snow in the higher elevations, nobody is discounting that. But if we're focusing on local impacts within the sub-forum, this is a mostly rain event. We just haven't had much cold air to work with since the warm up in mid January. We've had a few well timed transient shots, but nothing that lasted more than a day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 31 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Another terrible comment. You need a break. Your posting verbatim images with zero meteorology. It’s going to snow at 2k and allot. These runs are chasing convection. This will be further Nw with a larger, greater precip field Cragsmoor NY located about 10 mins north of Pine Bush sits on the shawangunk ridge at about 2100'. Might have to take the 25 min drive there to see some snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 26 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Take the snowgoggles off. You're not going to snow with the surface in the mid-upper 40's. You could snow above 2k, where almost nobody in this sub-forum lives. Congrats Binghampton. That’s exactly where I’m talking about. I threw in the towel for coastal snow days ago. Hence why I bugged Anthony. And people do live in the Poconos. 2,000 feet is no joke. This storm screams blue bomb up there. Using the December 92 and March 10 anologs for what happens when you force a moisture laden low level jet up and over high terrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 The track of the SLP has shifted more than 100 miles from where it was a few days ago. The red circle represents where the old track was, the black is the latest one. You can see how the strong winds stay largely offshore now as opposed to onshore, where the red line is. The surface winds are more Northerly now, which is less damaging than Easterly or Southeasterly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: That’s exactly where I’m talking about. I threw in the towel for coastal snow days ago. Hence why I bugged Anthony. And people do live in the Poconos. 2,000 feet is no joke. This storm screams blue bomb up there. Using the December 92 and March 10 anologs for what happens when you force a moisture laden low level jet up and over high terrain. Fine, but that doesn't really affect anyone in this sub-forum. We have very few posters if any that live in the Poconos, as they mostly post in the Philly forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: The track of the SLP has shifted more than 100 miles from where it was a few days ago. The red circle represents where the old track was, the black is the latest one. You can see now how the strong winds stay largely offshore now as opposed to onshore, where the red line is. The surface winds are more Northerly now, which is less damaging than Easterly or Southeasterly. Chasing convection. Let this play out before locking in a conclusion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Just now, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Chasing convection. Let this play out before locking in a conclusion I'm not trying to beat you up, but look at where the mid-level jet is pointed. The SLP almost always develops on the nose of the jet streak, as it's doing here. I disagree that this is convective feedback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Dark blue line is what we need, pink line is what we currently have. Have I mentioned how terrible the West coast is? We are lucky to have a storm at all with that giant trough into California. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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