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March or BUST! - Pattern & Model Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

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49 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Those are abysmal numbers for Gardiner in recent years!

Are you referring to Gardiner, Maine?  My 1986-98 Aprils there averaged 5.4", or 0.4" more than 1999-2017 at my current location.  The Gardiner co-op, 3 miles north of where I lived and 130' lower (thus about halfway to sea level) averaged 3.6" for both 86-98 and 99-17.  Their average 1886-on is 4.5".  (Side note:  That's the only Maine site for which I've found 3/1888 snow data.  They show 8" of 32(+) paste from that event.)

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6 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Are you referring to Gardiner, Maine?  My 1986-98 Aprils there averaged 5.4", or 0.4" more than 1999-2017 at my current location.  The Gardiner co-op, 3 miles north of where I lived and 130' lower (thus about halfway to sea level) averaged 3.6" for both 86-98 and 99-17.  Their average 1886-on is 4.5".  (Side note:  That's the only Maine site for which I've found 3/1888 snow data.  They show 8" of 32(+) paste from that event.)

Oh yeah-Gardiner Maine.   I’ve been there for work multiple times.  Nice little town.

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2 hours ago, tamarack said:

The past doesn't predict the future, but offers some idea.  In 19 years, April has brought measurable snow 84% of the time and 1"+ 74%.  Previous 13 years in (less snowy) Gardiner the numbers were 85% and 54%.

We all know it can snow in april, It has many times, Especially up here, Little more difficult at the coast and the coastal plain but not impossible with the right pattern and timing, The last 4 years has yielded a total of 18.6" for april with 7.5" falling last april on the 1st.

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56 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Euro is trying to bring the low up the coast for next weekend but the ridge out west looks a bit flat. Plenty of cold air around.

H5 looks pretty good

Could be a big one

The odds of a “big one” around 4/10 are very low south of NNE and below 1500 feet.

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4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

The odds of a “big one” around 4/10 are very low south of NNE and below 1500 feet.

One has to look at the whole domain space however, and namely at that ...the mass-fields contributing. 

The movement of the negative erstwhile PNA from -3 SD to +1 is a huge ginormous amount of change, and when coupled with a -AO and blocking pearled west to east across the 60th parallel over the Canadian shield, that can offset climo by a considerable margin.

That's also predicated on the idea that these present signals are stable - to which I am less then confident they are.

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27 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

One has to look at the whole domain space however, and namely at that ...the mass-fields contributing. 

The movement of the negative erstwhile PNA from -3 SD to +1 is a huge ginormous amount of change, and when coupled with a -AO and blocking pearled west to east across the 60th parallel over the Canadian shield, that can offset climo by a considerable margin.

That's also predicated on the idea that these present signals are stable - to which I am less then confident they are.

Oh there will be a storm but what are the odds of heavy accumulating snow at that point?  That’s why I tend to play the odds until it’s inside of 3-5 days.

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1 hour ago, dryslot said:

We all know it can snow in april, It has many times, Especially up here, Little more difficult at the coast and the coastal plain but not impossible with the right pattern and timing, The last 4 years has yielded a total of 18.6" for april with 7.5" falling last april on the 1st.

14.1" for those years here.  Last 2 Aprils have been frustrating, first watching SNE get advisory/warning criteria snow at low-mid 20s while we enjoyed dry clouds (perfect ending to an awful snow season), then last year having double-digit crocus crushers forecast for both the 1st and 4th, and getting 5" total from the 2 of them.  In the long term the foothills will catch up, but I doubt it begins this year.

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1 hour ago, weathafella said:

Oh there will be a storm but what are the odds of heavy accumulating snow at that point?  That’s why I tend to play the odds until it’s inside of 3-5 days.

Lol... not terribly high, no  ... however, this particular storm signal has a colder then normal one associated to it, -fwiw..  Perhaps still falling short, but it sure would be a fun scramble and watching professionals scurry to clean up a cold rain forecast...  Anyway, if one wants an April snow fall, this is how you set one up is all.

And, it was as recent as 2005 or perhaps 06 that I recall seeing powder cob-webbing off a flat topped roof at 1pm on April 10th ... it happens.  I'm not saying that's our destiny ...but again, on the fence - not shocked either way.

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