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March or BUST! - Pattern & Model Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

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9 minutes ago, NewYorkweatherfan said:

I can wait, warm sticky weather is the worst! Hope we get a well below summer. That's the best weather 75-85 degrees with a bunch of cold fronts so it clears out all the humidity and junk- now back to snow events

Yup.  If we could store all of the humidity in Tolland where Kevin loves it, while sitting in his air conditioning that would be great. 

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1 hour ago, NewYorkweatherfan said:

I can wait, warm sticky weather is the worst! Hope we get a well below summer. That's the best weather 75-85 degrees with a bunch of cold fronts so it clears out all the humidity and junk- now back to snow events

I would love 60s and 70s all summer

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6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Here they come.. 1 by 1.. tipping the cap, acknowledging 

German, Euro, GFS,GEFS,RGEM are all trending north with the Monday system from earlier in the week. Euro has another snow event with below freezing temps later next week.

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35 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

German, Euro, GFS,GEFS,RGEM are all trending north with the Monday system from earlier in the week. Euro has another snow event with below freezing temps later next week.

Yea as I stated last week the periods to watch for a chance at accumulating snow would be the 4th 5th 9th 10th. No sigs for anything major at this time though

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Heh, the Euro doesn't look like much of a snow event to me ... Looks like a brief period of initially marginal cold getting washed out at a bad time of year - I guess if it is at night that end factor can be mitigated but... still, washing out. With too many mechanics driving a primary through limited +PP in place, the pressure pattern is bodily en masse moving east and turning all levels around to the SW.  In April with marginal 850s to begin with...not buying optimism there. Good for glop paws and maybe 2" in elevations before overwhelmed and gone... Unless that's all one is after - woo hoo!  Sweet! ...Otherwise?  vanquished by inland cut.  Looks the same on the 2nd system, too.. 

I could be wrong. If no one snowed for either, wouldn't surprise me jut the same... 

I think it is a bit more likely that the Euro is unstable/seasonally challenged and will change on the next run.  It's been rather stochastic with solutions lately.  Remember, just two days ago it had a phased snow bomb/storm ... now, that same interval has what amounts to a too much heights in the south and the mechanics up N skipping off that like a rock off a pond. blah blah...

Looking over the EPS ... perfectly 0 redeeming look... No one wins across the board of preferences...  A month of relentless butt pounding delivered to spring/warm enthusiasts, while too warm and N with the storm track to snow for y'all.   Really pretty remarkable how deliciously awful that is ... 

 

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I can’t wait for sustained torch warmth. Until it comes later Napril... let it snow

Forecasting based on the weather we want!  Never fails.  The day is coming soon when you're calling for 10+ degrees higher than models, but for now call for snow.

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think everyone in here agreed that some additional snowfall was likely.

Likely?  Not sure here, yet.  Probable, sure. And the 1" DIT has alluded to is not a big event by any stretch.  Once we start talking 6-8"+ for the entire SNE area at this point in the year, its a big storm and a strong signal.  NNE doesn't count since they see 6-8" events into May, on the reg.

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The schadenfreude in me hopes it doesn't snow again in spite of the present tenor in here - it's awesome when silence ensues... you can just feel everyone going, 'whaaaa '

muah hahahaha

when they should have been focused on the inevitability that July is coming -

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actually... that goes both ways.  A nice big fat spring/enthusiast bend-over snow bomb would be like "Count Rugen" in the "Princess Bride" ... '...You mean you've been chasing dreams of warmer weather all the way to April ... only to fail now?  ...that has to be the worst thing I've ever heard - how MARvelous'

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11 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Likely?  Not sure here, yet.  Probable, sure. And the 1" DIT has alluded to is not a big event by any stretch.  Once we start talking 6-8"+ for the entire SNE area at this point in the year, its a big storm and a strong signal.  NNE doesn't count since they see 6-8" events into May, on the reg.

Agreed.

But I will be surprised if it doesn't snow again...just not sold on a plowable event.

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I guess I just love it when "entitlements" fail ... the presumption unto me-me-me ...  One of my favorite cartoons, ever, is a "Far Side."  The pictorial features two desert desiccated wonderers. They're in tattered rags, bent over a turbid pool under a single palm tree, ...sun searing and bleaming over brow, their foot prints circuitously wending off into the horizon of sand dunes, and one of them has turned head toward the other where instead of drinking the life giving miracle water find, he says... "What ... no cups!"

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Ya Tip...whatever the prevailing feeling is on the boards...you like to see the weather do the exact opposite!   That much is crystal clear!!  

Just when it looks like the weather may break towards mild/warm...you’re right there pointing out why it just may fail!  And you do the same when the weather looks like it might snow as well. 

You love to see the wind taken out of everybody’s sails...no matter if they’re wishing for warmth or snow.  

PORK EM is your style lmao...you’re just as sick as the ones that fool themselves about the weather...you’re just looking for the perpetual screw job with regard to what everyone may be hoping for at a particular point in time.  

Its all cool...everyone has their fetish’s with regard to the Weather. 

 

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16 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya Tip...whatever the prevailing feeling is on the boards...you like to see the weather do the exact opposite!   That much is crystal clear!!  

Just when it looks like the weather may break towards mild/warm...you’re right there pointing out why it just may fail!  And you do the same when the weather looks like it might snow as well. 

You love to see the wind taken out of everybody’s sails...no matter if they’re wishing for warmth or snow.  

PORK EM is your style lmao...you’re just as sick as the ones that fool themselves about the weather...you’re just looking for the perpetual screw job with regard to what everyone may be hoping for at a particular point in time.  

Its all cool...everyone has their fetish’s with regard to the Weather. 

 

I know you think this... you've voiced this before. 

But I can assure you, the enjoying the failure of presumption is a different thing altogether. I'm like that with rich entitlement people too - it's a general outlook matter, that doesn't bear on analysis of the weather. 

I'm always even keeled as far as that goes...or at least aspire to being so. It's just that the daily memes that get generated in here are often, not ;)   They seem to spontaneously grow around a mood or tempo and then re-inforces and is more often less analytic.  That's not a knock - it's called crowd physics. This lot of users is not immune to that force.  Sometimes I get swept away in it, too.  But at other times, what I am putting out there would seem contrarian relative to that.   It's not trolling per se, it just that I'm formulating an opinion about the pattern or the storm ..etc, prior to even coming in here, and I put those observations into my posts - clearly...at some risk to whatever is the tenor of the moment. 

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3 hours ago, dendrite said:

I'd actually be surprised if I don't see more accumulating snow. We average plenty in April and it looks rather active the next 10 days. But I will continue to sell 8"+ of powder.

The past doesn't predict the future, but offers some idea.  In 19 years, April has brought measurable snow 84% of the time and 1"+ 74%.  Previous 13 years in (less snowy) Gardiner the numbers were 85% and 54%.

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Just now, tamarack said:

The past doesn't predict the future, but offers some idea.  In 19 years, April has brought measurable snow 84% of the time and 1"+ 74%.  Previous 13 years in (less snowy) Gardiner the numbers were 85% and 54%.

Those are abysmal numbers for Gardiner in recent years!

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