Baroclinic Zone Posted March 29, 2018 Author Share Posted March 29, 2018 1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Bob needs to delete that post... only The Fella may post it. Am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2018 Share Posted March 29, 2018 26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I would never say a snow signal beyond 5 days out is strong in April. Yeah...hard to get that this late. But the general pattern could def support an April snow event...so much cold that is lurking and gets pushed over us now and again. So if the shortwaves cooperate, we could see something...but there isn't a huge margin of error in April. That's why the signals are never strong for snow this late...we could just end up with a cutter or an inland runner/redeveloper that gives an inch of 38F rain and maybe Sugarloaf gets all the snow....whereas that same storm redeveloping a month to 6 weeks earlier would be a big front ender to sleet/ZR...or something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 29, 2018 Share Posted March 29, 2018 11 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Am I missing something? Yeah, Jerry post that song from Roy Orbison when he has ended winter, You stole his thunder................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 29, 2018 Author Share Posted March 29, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: Yeah, Jerry post that song from Roy Orbison when he has ended winter, You stole his thunder................... I never noticed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 29, 2018 Share Posted March 29, 2018 57 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Get out and nape today. Cool and misty here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted March 29, 2018 Share Posted March 29, 2018 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Cool and misty here. 65 and partly sunny here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2018 Share Posted March 29, 2018 Just now, #NoPoles said: 65 and partly sunny here I think your station is in the sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 29, 2018 Share Posted March 29, 2018 41 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Yes Signal is strong with the mjo and tellies. Seems like alot of people are on board. Anthony I respect your knowledge and passion for the weather for sure...and I agree that there is a signal and teleconnections may be supportive, but just like in late October things have to be absolutely perfect for a good snow event to take place. And in your neck of the woods even more so. Certainly something to keep a slight eye on...to see if any of the modeling goes toward the idea, but the chances at the moment are there...but they're low imo as would obviously be the case in April. I hope I can say you guys were right....I'd love one more shot at something especially since there's no real nice weather in sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 29, 2018 Author Share Posted March 29, 2018 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: Cool and misty here. 60/41 here. You familiar with Abandoned Building Brewery? Noticed some brews at the local CBC so I picked up one to try. Think its Hydra. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 29, 2018 Share Posted March 29, 2018 2 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Have you looked at individual gefs members for last few runs. Nice potential where you are. With the article earthlight Posted there is plenty of potential on east coast. Pattern is not forecast to be tepid. Question is what does Plenty mean in April and does one Of the pieces to this good look fall apart and not come back. This is still 6-10 Days out and may see two Storms imo. Folks lets . Revisit this. John is a great met, and had an outstanding outlook. I agree that it may snow, but I think he would agree that there is no overwhelmng signal for a big event...hence tepid. The signals in advance of the blizzards were immense...however this time there is a signal, but its nothing over the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 29, 2018 Share Posted March 29, 2018 32 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah...hard to get that this late. But the general pattern could def support an April snow event...so much cold that is lurking and gets pushed over us now and again. So if the shortwaves cooperate, we could see something...but there isn't a huge margin of error in April. That's why the signals are never strong for snow this late...we could just end up with a cutter or an inland runner/redeveloper that gives an inch of 38F rain and maybe Sugarloaf gets all the snow....whereas that same storm redeveloping a month to 6 weeks earlier would be a big front ender to sleet/ZR...or something like that. Yea, I'm not sure if you can have a no brainer signal this late...which makes it more difficult to predict. The wave lengths also complicate matters...which John also mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 29, 2018 Share Posted March 29, 2018 32 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Revisit this. John is a great met, and had an outstanding outlook. I agree that it may snow, but I think he would agree that there is no overwhelmng signal for a big event...hence tepid. The signals in advance of the blizzards were immense...however this time there is a signal, but its nothing over the top. Actually texted John, and he agrees with this sentiment. Need to be careful not to misrepresent what people are saying. He is not calling for a big event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 29, 2018 Share Posted March 29, 2018 27 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 60/41 here. You familiar with Abandoned Building Brewery? Noticed some brews at the local CBC so I picked up one to try. Think its Hydra. Yeah, I know those guys. Hydra and Dirty Girl are both decent IPA. They started as a Belgian only brewery until they realized they couldn't make it on just that. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 29, 2018 Share Posted March 29, 2018 12z GFS was similar to that Euro idea from 2 days ago ... centered on 192 hours ... The problem with that evolution (for storm enthusiasts..) is that there is too much gradient in the geopotential medium associated with the southern wave as it skirts by to the south of the SPV fragment that threatens to come down and subsume. This was also the problem with other phased potentials over the last six or so weeks of events ... to much gradient results in velocity saturation and the southern stream spits back out before the SPV/N/stream can mechanically capture. If you go back at look at some looming good examples of that sort of interaction ... such as 1978, the southern stream feature was embedded in a bit more nebular flow that didn't have quite so much high speed mid level wind velocities. I really believe fully that these gradient surplus patterns of the last several seasons/years have been a problem for purer stream fusion scenarios. Comparing an idealize morphology such as 1978 against a scenario like this 12z operational GFS ... the idea of the southern stream whipping around too fast and ejecting out of the stream interaction region becomes more obvious. interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 29, 2018 Share Posted March 29, 2018 51F here with solid overcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 29, 2018 Share Posted March 29, 2018 1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Yeah, I know those guys. Hydra and Dirty Girl are both decent IPA. They started as a Belgian only brewery until they realized they couldn't make it on just that. Lol Stony Creek is building a brewery at Foxwoods, opens in the summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 29, 2018 Share Posted March 29, 2018 14 hours ago, WinterWolf said: Or the Northern outdoors snowmobile lodge...that’s the big attraction as well there in the Forks! Weyerhauser has a large office/garage facility there as well, and foresters tend to be interested in weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 29, 2018 Share Posted March 29, 2018 1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Yeah, I know those guys. Hydra and Dirty Girl are both decent IPA. They started as a Belgian only brewery until they realized they couldn't make it on just that. Lol Yup. Belgians FTL. Not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted March 29, 2018 Share Posted March 29, 2018 Severe storms here Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 29, 2018 Share Posted March 29, 2018 First real solid melt day here in town. Think it's hit that ripe stage where it accelerates. Last week was the 1" per day decrease... bet we've lost 4" past 24 hours from 12" to 8". Off the max of 25" in mid-March after the big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2018 Share Posted March 29, 2018 8 minutes ago, powderfreak said: First real solid melt day here in town. Think it's hit that ripe stage where it accelerates. Last week was the 1" per day decrease... bet we've lost 4" past 24 hours from 12" to 8". Off the max of 25" in mid-March after the big storm. Wetbulb also went above 40F for the first time there today looking at MVL data...a couple days ago you had like 46/10 type stuff and even yesterday the RH rose but it was still like 42/33 type stuff....today you're rocking 50/36 or so....that's a big difference when it comes to snow melt. Surpassing that critical 37-38F wetbulb that Walt Drag used to love to talk about for snow pack melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2018 Share Posted March 29, 2018 Just piles and a patch here or there. 2017-2018 pretty much done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 29, 2018 Share Posted March 29, 2018 51 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Wetbulb also went above 40F for the first time there today looking at MVL data...a couple days ago you had like 46/10 type stuff and even yesterday the RH rose but it was still like 42/33 type stuff....today you're rocking 50/36 or so....that's a big difference when it comes to snow melt. Surpassing that critical 37-38F wetbulb that Walt Drag used to love to talk about for snow pack melt. Yeah great point, you can feel it... not that uber-dry sunny 40-50F stuff with a breeze where evap cooling keeps the pack cold all things considered. Also finally hit that stage where its just mush to the ground. Isothermal wet granular, where there's like a puddle in your foot-print. The water is releasing. Last stage of the snowpack...probably get decimated down to a few inches of gray scale if we get 0.5-1.0" of rain tonight into tomorrow morning here in town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 29, 2018 Share Posted March 29, 2018 Same crap today....most of that upper energy in the long range passes to our north...especially on the EURO. No way to run a snow storm in April....or January, for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 29, 2018 Share Posted March 29, 2018 7 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Have you looked at individual gefs members for last few runs. Nice potential where you are. With the article earthlight Posted there is plenty of potential on east coast. Pattern is not forecast to be tepid. Question is what does Plenty mean in April and does one Of the pieces to this good look fall apart and not come back. This is still 6-10 Days out and may see two Storms imo. Folks lets . At this point of the year, I'm only interested in 12+ (I hope Zeus isn't reading this thread). Otherwise bring me thawed drying ground and let me start planting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 29, 2018 Share Posted March 29, 2018 51 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Same crap today....most of that upper energy in the long range passes to our north...especially on the EURO. No way to run a snow storm in April....or January, for that matter. Misdiagnosis Very good probs this far out. We don’t see these high like this in middle of winter many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 29, 2018 Share Posted March 29, 2018 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Misdiagnosis Are you referring to your early call for a crap winter, whiffed Jan 4 blizzard, big February or end of winter in Morch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 29, 2018 Share Posted March 29, 2018 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Are you referring to your early call for a crap winter, whiffed Jan 4 blizzard, big February or end of winter in Morch? In all honesty.. next winter.. do you think you can go the whole winter without referring to your winter forecast and what you called for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 29, 2018 Share Posted March 29, 2018 25% chance of an inch of snow or more? Sure.....I don't interpret that as a big signal. Note the high probs are in NNE....as implied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 29, 2018 Share Posted March 29, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: In all honesty.. next winter.. do you think you can go the whole winter without referring to your winter forecast and what you called for? None of those were my calls, thankfully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.