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March or BUST! - Pattern & Model Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

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2 hours ago, Snow88 said:

I should have never cancelled my stormvista subscription lol

Euro shows next week's storm cold and suppressed . I like the setup.

 

Congrats to Ocean City, MD on that Euro run for next Thursday.  If that verified, it would have to be historic for them in April.

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1 hour ago, 78Blizzard said:

Congrats to Ocean City, MD on that Euro run for next Thursday.  If that verified, it would have to be historic for them in April.

I mean, would it really be a snow event for them way down there verbatim??  Cuz if it is...that’s some serious cold air to be that far south this time of year!  

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13 hours ago, tamarack said:

Many trips down Route 11 when we lived in Fort Kent.  Plus my job with management of Maine's Public Lands means visits to tracts in all 16 counties.  It's been a great opportunity, especially since I'm a non-native from away.

FYP.

The site visits (we call them CWA familiarization) are pretty crucial in my opinion to bettering yourself in meteorology. Day after day of watching model data roll across the screen, unfortunately can turn places into just names on a map. It helps to get out and see it for what it is, and how local effects may play into the forecast.

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

FYP.

The site visits (we call them CWA familiarization) are pretty crucial in my opinion to bettering yourself in meteorology. Day after day of watching model data roll across the screen, unfortunately can turn places into just names on a map. It helps to get out and see it for what it is, and how local effects may play into the forecast.

So true, don't think many leave Mass down here 

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6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

So true, don't think many leave Mass down here 

I mean for instance, AWIPS is pretty "dumb." It plots locations with a nod towards population centers, but in the absence of large populations it fills in spatially with progressive disclosure as you zoom in or out. When I first got here I thought The Forks was an actual town because it plotted on AWIPS. After a ride up 201, I realized that it's not much more than the confluence of the Kennebec and Dead Rivers. So if I'm banking on storm verification from The Forks I better start learning business hours at the rafting companies.

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37 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I mean for instance, AWIPS is pretty "dumb." It plots locations with a nod towards population centers, but in the absence of large populations it fills in spatially with progressive disclosure as you zoom in or out. When I first got here I thought The Forks was an actual town because it plotted on AWIPS. After a ride up 201, I realized that it's not much more than the confluence of the Kennebec and Dead Rivers. So if I'm banking on storm verification from The Forks I better start learning business hours at the rafting companies.

Or the Northern outdoors snowmobile lodge...that’s the big attraction as well there in the Forks! 

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5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't see much to be excited about...odds of a big snow looks pretty low.

If you actually look at it, most of the stormier solutions are NNE deals, and inconsequential members are south.

Not ruling anything out, but pretty tepid support.

Agree. 

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8 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Does the pattern show higher potential, in terms of the set up, than perhaps the solutions and individual members do?  Or is the pattern tepid too?

It’s a powder keg pattern . It’s a rare look for early Napril. There are some good hits . It’s something op models won’t pick up on until very close in 

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45 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Does the pattern show higher potential, in terms of the set up, than perhaps the solutions and individual members do?  Or is the pattern tepid too?

There is some potential, esp in NNE. I’m not sure it’s a very high one though. It’s tough in April because things can sneak up, but I don’t see any OMG type signals.

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