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March or BUST! - Pattern & Model Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

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2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

I am assuming you have the paid version. What do you see happening with it as it progresses past hr96?

It's a big hit for most of New England. Jackpot in SNE prob from interior CT to interior MA but even coasts look like paste bomb. 

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For the Euro's sake and bein' sort of in the hot seat, that's a good recovery run there. It's getting pretty close to schit or get off the pot time, and if it was going to stick with it's prior idea, ... it would be entering bust risk pretty much officially on this run being that it's a mere 4 days...

 

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1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

Is it time to start a thread for Wed or is not worth jinxing it yet?

Maybe Tip should do that.  The first few days of the other storm were all posted in the general thread.  It was not till I teased everyone and posted the Euro clown maps on Tips thread did everyone start posting on it.

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12 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Give it one more day.

Right now it looks much more clear as far as snowfall compared to yesterday’s show.

Nice, moderate event seems likely without too many curveballs

Hopefully the guidance has a good idea right now. Prob more than just a moderate event if it goes like that. You'd prob see a good number of double digit totals on that setup. 

But keeping it conservative early on is usually the best way to go. 

 

Don't sleep on Mar 12th either. That one is loaded with potential too. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Hopefully the guidance has a good idea right now. Prob more than just a moderate event if it goes like that. You'd prob see a good number of double digit totals on that setup. 

But keeping it conservative early on is usually the best way to go. 

 

Don't sleep on Mar 12th either. That one is loaded with potential too. 

I'm going to start a thread right now ... worded appropriate  -

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I basically am in a school right now that there are two significant events over the next 10 days to 2-weeks, then we're out for the season. 

Probably have a close call in early April engineered deliberately to make this look wrong even though it's still right ( :axe: ) but excluding permutations of such suspicious, albeit paranoid design ... I think after this two weeks it's more about dodging backdoor events, otherwise, we start greening lawns if perhaps two weeks earlier than normal ...  Just going by the tenor of all and then seeing the NAO die a slow death ...what is likely to occur after.  Being the Equinox probably isn't hurting this 100,000 foot assessment, either. 

By the way, we switch clocks ahead next week - ouch for model hobby, huh

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I basically am in a school right now that there are two significant events over the next 10 days to 2-weeks, then we're out for the season. 

Probably have a close call in early April engineered deliberately to make this look wrong even though it's still right ( :axe: ) but excluding permutations of such suspicious, albeit paranoid design ... I think after this two weeks it's more about dodging backdoor events, otherwise, we start greening lawns if perhaps two weeks earlier than normal ...  Just going by the tenor of all and then seeing the NAO die a slow death ...what is likely to occur after.  Being the Equinox probably isn't hurting this 100,000 foot assessment, either. 

By the way, we switch clocks ahead next week - ouch for model hobby, huh

But it makes for nicer grilling opportunities.   We changed our deck to a screen porch and I had to move my grill.  Hard to grill in the dark.  

I agree with you that this is winter’s last gasp coming up.

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26 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Maybe Tip should do that.  The first few days of the other storm were all posted in the general thread.  It was not till I teased everyone and posted the Euro clown maps on Tips thread did everyone start posting on it.

How did his Juju work out  not so much

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4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

But it makes for nicer grilling opportunities.   We changed our deck to a screen porch and I had to move my grill.  Hard to grill in the dark.  

I agree with you that this is winter’s last gasp coming up.

Longer ski days bro. Nothing better than skining up for last runs , watching a sunset all alone at 730 and skiing down.

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Pretty sure it would make everyone’s season if it captured perfectly for their yard.

I’ve been wanting a GOM bomb since I moved here; never experienced one. I bring this up also bc I think this one has a really good shot. First one worth getting excited about in this regard...

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