CoastalWx Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 25 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Hmm... Well, I guess nearing April ... 'seeming' wintry may take a subjective opinion, and then make is HUGELY subjective... But, from D7 through 11 or so in both the EPS and GEFS there is huge sprawling area of deep negative anomalies at 850 mb over much of Canada, with the much ballyhooed EPS version bleeding it south some... , which for a base-line canvas is a solid metric to go by. One may argue it stays safely tucked N of the border, but I wouldn't take that bet with -EPO and the MJO trying push through late 6/7 I mean, if people want it to be crystalline air and pristine snow that's going to be hard to come by - it's not DJF. However, in terms of successfully transitioning to spring, that's a troubled look. That said, I am also pointing out in equal measure as of late that means and individual runs are subjected to increased stochastic behavior due to usual transition season stuff, with trend break downs and so forth so... there's running caveats along with that complexion. You know how it is though. This time of year, give me sun, and I’ll give you near to AN temps, as long as the airmass isn’t highly anomalous on the cold side. The tendency to me seems to keep the cold in Canada overall and also in the Plains. It’s defintely not warm, but the 11-15 may only be near to slightly below if the EPS is right. The GEFS are chilly but when aren’t they chilly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 Gfs and CMC have a deep trough in the middle of country and east at 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 There are really three layers to this conversation that really should be kept separate. one ... the synoptic appeal and features therein. The 850 anomaly coverage ... the -EPO... Hell, the NAO tries another westy in there too. But those are different then - two ... offset corrections like those you described (hugely agree). I just said this morning as a matter a fact (and this 12z Euro is arriving really painting it colorfully here..) Tuesday dawns 0 C at 850 mb, and matures to +4 or +5 by late afternoon, under near full sun and near col wind - post the Equinox ? ... yeah, proooobably go substantively above machine on that day. Yup! Wednesday looks less adulterated by cloud on this run too, with even warmer mixing depths... If clouds are less we touch 70 in that profile that day. But all that can carry about while the hemisphere still supports snow looks - I'm guessing April 7 is our magic number this go... at least for the hemisphere part of it. The dailies sneaking in spring here and there is almost purely manufactured by the climbing insolation.. three ... I'm totally wrong. But, I think there is a distinction and that is why we can sometimes experience: relative warm - bowling ball snow bomb - relative warm sometimes inside of 6 day stints at this time of year. The idea there is that you don't get the spring snow bomb when the hemisphere isn't promoting snow; it's just that the hemipshere is being masked by the sun's abuse. hm By the way, GFSX MOS ... for KFIT is subtantially over climo for the end of this week, to go along with your losing winter look: MON 26| TUE 27| WED 28| THU 29| FRI 30| SAT 31| SUN 01|MON CLIMO N/X 23 43| 22 51| 26 45| 40 64| 47 56| 34 60| 42 63| 36 29 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 Add Euro to the list of cold by 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Add Euro to the list of cold by 240. I'm assuming you actually know this ... but, D10 particularly at this time of year is almost meaningless.. That said, the cold signals abound, even if the model appears spurious and way over-done with that. Heh, as is? That vortex is like a -10 SD feature for this time of year - ...kidding, but it's so absurd that it has like 120 kts of balanced wind everywhere in the middle troposphere. We pay good money to get jet maxes in S/W with 2/3rds that kind of velocity and this run does it everywhere - okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 Thats 10 days From now...probably doesn’t verify all to cold/BN this time of year...at least I hope not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'm assuming you actually know this ... but, D10 particularly at this time of year is almost meaningless.. That said, the cold signals abound, even if the model appears spurious and way over-done with that. Heh, as is? That vortex is like a -10 SD feature for this time of year - ...kidding, but it's so absurd that it has like 120 kts of balanced wind everywhere in the middle troposphere. We pay good money to get jet maxes in S/W with 2/3rds that kind of velocity and this run does it everywhere - okay. What would that mean...if it happened to play out just like that?? Big cold?? Or big storm?? Or both?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: What would that mean...if it happened to play out just like that?? Big cold?? Or big storm?? Or both?? As is? Neither ...heh. seriously - That's importing -10 C 850 air in April sun... so so cold, as Scott was portraying. That lobe of syrup up south of JB in Canada probably modifies as it comes south, too. It would certainly be 'enough' if one was holding out hope for last winter hurrahs and so forth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 That's a cold euro op and some signs the EPS buys it too. We'll see how long it lasts. That's definitely colder from 00z, but it's day 10 too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 Roy is warming up so to speak.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 Roy?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 5 hours ago, CoastalWx said: I mentioned the 70s, just to illustrate that the weather may be pleasant despite not being very warm. Sure you can never rule out some sort of renegade bowling ball, but the pattern as a whole doesn’t seem all that wintry to me. Heck even today seems like spring with a high of 40F under partly to mostly sunny skies. 50F would be downright hot at this point... Anything that melts snow at this point is "spring", IMO lol. Very spring-like appeal though today. Snow getting "heavy", long daylight, temps near 40F in the valleys...south facing road-banks melting out to bare ground. You can just tell looking at the snow that it's lost that "fresh storm snow" appeal and is now condensed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 14 minutes ago, weathafella said: Roy is warming up so to speak.... Looks warmer at the end of the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 We just did a 5 day stretch of minimum temperatures below zero...coldest at -16F. Down to -2.2 on the month after the first 15 days were +2.8. In 10 days we erased a full 5 degrees of average monthly temperatures including -22/-27/-24/-17/-12 type departures. I'm ready for warmth (ie 45F+). A good last blast of cold and snow but time to move on with daylight lasting until after 7pm now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Heck even today seems like spring with a high of 40F under partly to mostly sunny skies. 50F would be downright hot at this point... Anything that melts snow at this point is "spring", IMO lol. Very spring-like appeal though today. Snow getting "heavy", long daylight, temps near 40F in the valleys...south facing road-banks melting out to bare ground. You can just tell looking at the snow that it's lost that "fresh storm snow" appeal and is now condensed. Deep pack there. You'll be warmer than down here while we NE flow next two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: Roy?? Pay attention for the next week-you’ll realize who Roy is soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: Roy?? 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: Pay attention for the next week-you’ll realize who Roy is soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: Pay attention for the next week-you’ll realize who Roy is soon. I’m definitely on the Roy bandwagon. Transitioning...maybe something pops, but I’m thinking cold rain and clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 I’m personally not interested in anything under 6 inches at this point. Give it to someone else.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 14 minutes ago, weathafella said: I’m personally not interested in anything under 6 inches at this point. Give it to someone else.... That's what Diane said. Too soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 Kind of tough unless the setup is ideal when we’re nearing April 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 26, 2018 Share Posted March 26, 2018 2 hours ago, powderfreak said: Heck even today seems like spring with a high of 40F under partly to mostly sunny skies. 50F would be downright hot at this point... Anything that melts snow at this point is "spring", IMO lol. Very spring-like appeal though today. Snow getting "heavy", long daylight, temps near 40F in the valleys...south facing road-banks melting out to bare ground. You can just tell looking at the snow that it's lost that "fresh storm snow" appeal and is now condensed. Definitely noticed the change in Newry Maine Thursday afternoon before that it was snow white clean. What a great month of ski conditions. Not such a great month for homeowners in SNE. The damage to trees from 395 Ct to 290 to 495 Mass was incredible. Haverhill was real bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted March 26, 2018 Share Posted March 26, 2018 Last patch of natural snow that was not in a pile or snowbank officially melted from my yard today, We done. Not rooting for anything else unless it's a big dog. Spring cleanup officially started today for me as some debris were picked up and a few areas raked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 26, 2018 Share Posted March 26, 2018 Still quite a bit of snow left in the NEK. These pics were taken near. Canaan, VTp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 26, 2018 Share Posted March 26, 2018 28 minutes ago, White Rain said: The tree damage is real bad in many spots, we were lucky to avoid any damage in that. The damage was obvious not far away and very bad up in NE mass like you said - even as close as Clinton near here. As bad as it was, it still looked tame to me compared with the 2008 ice storm. It still looks like a tornado went through the woods around here 10 years later even with extensive clean up, with trees bent and large trunks snapped in half littering the woods behind our house. Feel bad for people who were impacted in this more recent one and the first nor’easter, hate to see the destruction. Luckily these type of events don’t happen most winters. Yeah, our area has been rather lucky since 2008 as far as tree damage. Other areas have had numerous damaging events, either from heavy wet snow, or tropical systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 26, 2018 Share Posted March 26, 2018 13 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Yeah, our area has been rather lucky since 2008 as far as tree damage. Other areas have had numerous damaging events, either from heavy wet snow, or tropical systems. 4 damaging storms since 10/29/17, that and gypsy moths killing trees have left our forests with lots of debris. Hopefully spring is wet and green up happens quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 26, 2018 Share Posted March 26, 2018 No 0z Euro talk ? Alot of snow for interior areas through 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 26, 2018 Share Posted March 26, 2018 18 minutes ago, Snow88 said: No 0z Euro talk ? Alot of snow for interior areas through 240. It’s 530am at the end of March and it’s all after d5 in NNE. How much talk did you want? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 26, 2018 Share Posted March 26, 2018 8 hours ago, mreaves said: Still quite a bit of snow left in the NEK. These pics were taken near. Canaan, VTp how deep is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 26, 2018 Share Posted March 26, 2018 15 minutes ago, dendrite said: It’s 530am at the end of March and it’s all after d5 in NNE. How much talk did you want? The real travesty is being awake while the 6z GFS is just starting. DST ftl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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