March or BUST! - Pattern & Model Discussion

[EastonSN+]

53 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Yes the end is here.... disappointed that yesterday/last night flopped here, that would have made a huge difference in the totals and the feel.  Yes, very active March no doubt...and a blast tracking with everybody here, but only 1 out of the 4 Big Nor'Easters delivered here(the second one with 13.5 inches), the 3rd was a flop, and this one even more so.  Had I done well in the 3rd one like out east did with 15-30 inches falling, and this one yesterday (ended up with 2" lol) I'd feel alot better about the winter as a whole.  

 

Ended up at 62" for the season...14" above average/normal....so a pretty good year no doubt in the total snowfall department(not upset with that amount), it's just that the potential was right there to do so much better, but got skunked on 3/4 big events here in March, and that kind of puts a little sting in the feel.  Had a great season up in the "County" sledding so that's a great feel for the winter for me personally.  Just a lil sting in the way some of the big potential ended up for my hood...but you can't win them all.

 

Anthony..I think we're done for the year...but then again who knows lol.  I hate the weather that's on it's way.....damp cool crap for the end of March and all of April as always...worst time of the year!!

Yeah March was unkind for the CT river valley for sure. Even in SW CT 2 of the 4 March storms failed, but the last 2 were great and this one was good for this late in March.

Dec = B+

Jan = B

Feb = C+ (loved the warm spell and mid month snowstorm)

March = A (may have been my snowiest March ever. Have to check the Archives)

Winter grade B+

Bring on Spring.

[Typhoon Tip]

Unrelated to any signal nearing April Fools. ... 

The only thing preventing a real two or even three day stint of marvelous spring weather (and by that...nearing 70!) from the 27th to the 29th of the month is our, as yet to be determined, proximity to that big ocean storm that materializes/gets clipped off from the westerlies early next week.  There after ...it bombs immediately but then being completely cut off ...winds down at a tedious rate there after while meandering.   If we can avoid that thing's outer cyclostrophic influence than we go calm (save sea breezes) with post Equinox sun and recovering mixing thickness.  850 mb may not be a very good guide there; the boundary layer may not mix that high..  But it does get warm to + 5 C in that time frame. 

I have seen 60 F at 540 DAM thickness in February with 0 C at 850 before ... given perfect super-adiabatic look, and that look in those three days has that similar sort of full sun usurping the compression of high pressure by really searing the llvs..  Anyway, if that gyre ends up west ...forget it...  we get robbed out of a warm-ish look

 

[tamarack]

58 minutes ago, Minenfeld! said:

Sure, March has been fun. But it's also not hard to understand the frustration level even in a good stretch when you watch the best parts of storms go east or south of your specific location often.

Don't know who wrote this, but it kind of fits:  "Of all sad words of tongue or pen, these are the saddest - 'it might have been'"  Just imagine how crazy this place would have been if all 4 coastals this month had plastered the region. 
Even batting .500 has been great, but there's still some flavor of what we had here for 2014-15.  That winter had cold and AN snowfall, but also miss after miss while EMA and DE Maine were obliterating snowfall records.  It was a 2-storm winter here, plus some marginal WSW criteria events.  The 13" in Novie made for a super start, but missing the best January blizzard of my lifetime (that hit where I happened to live at the time) was a bummer.  (Did get to clear it from the driveway, however.)  Instead, we saw a 12-16" forecast for SNJ verify at 1.5" that was gone less than 4 hours after the end of accumulation.

[WinterWolf]

38 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah March was unkind for the CT river valley for sure. Even in SW CT 2 of the 4 March storms failed, but the last 2 were great and this one was good for this late in March.

Dec = B+

Jan = B

Feb = C+ (loved the warm spell and mid month snowstorm)

March = A (may have been my snowiest March ever. Have to check the Archives)

Winter grade B+

Bring on Spring.

Ya and I'm not in the CT river valley and just didn't get into the bands last week, and this one just sucked all together for most of us inland peeps, except Far SW CT.  But hey, you win some and lose some.  Ended up 14" above normal for the season at 62"...assuming there's no more snow for us...which I'm thinking we're done.  

But if there is one more shot might as well bring it, if there's no nice weather in sight which there doesn't look to be.

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Don't know who wrote this, but it kind of fits:  "Of all sad words of tongue or pen, these are the saddest - 'it might have been'"  Just imagine how crazy this place would have been if all 4 coastals this month had plastered the region. 
Even batting .500 has been great, but there's still some flavor of what we had here for 2014-15.  That winter had cold and AN snowfall, but also miss after miss while EMA and DE Maine were obliterating snowfall records.  It was a 2-storm winter here, plus some marginal WSW criteria events.  The 13" in Novie made for a super start, but missing the best January blizzard of my lifetime that hit where I happened to live at the time was a bummer.  (Did get to clear it from the driveway, however.)  Instead, we saw a 12-16" forecast for SNJ verify at 1.5" that was gone less than 4 hours after the end of accumulation.

ha ha, .. .that's that Maud Muller - 

It's actually a poem about shattered dreams of faux expectations ...which is a word choice there that probably doesn't help clear it up. 

This society-type judge meets a this super hot farm girl, and they both think the other is super hot.  She immediately designs a future in mind that he'll rescue here and take her in as a counstable-wife ... reverie in refinement, at his side in pride.

Meanwhile, he wants to shed the manacles of his austere life, longing to be a simpler man of earth, celebrated next to her as the farmer's wife. 

God... it's great tragedy - ... darkly hilarious.. but tragedy nonetheless.   

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Ye ah March was upreparefor the CT river valley for  sure. Even in SW CT 2 of the 4 March storms failed, but the last 2 were great and this one was good for this late in March.

Dec = B+

Jan = B

Feb = C+ (loved the warm spell and mid month snowstorm)

March = A (may have been my snowiest March ever. Have to check the Archives)

Winter grade B+

Bring on Spring.

I really like how you gave feb a C+ ..and mention enjoying the warmth

I dislike cold and dry and i would certainly Consider down grading for that. 

Rain storms in January to feb 15 also are unacceptable imo..

I personally loved temps in the 60's driving out to hunter mtn in p.m for a 2'+ BOMB

[ice1972]

I just can't get past that awful February......the month was a solid D if I was gonna give it a grade.....as a valley girl relying on March to get it done is playing with fire.....now can we get on with sping?  I saw a 240 hr April Fools thing on the GFS 

[Cold Miser]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

One last chance for ORH to break the record 3/31? Kind of a weak signal for 4/1, but if it can start on evening of 3/31 then maybe. Maybe the sig will trend more robust...might as well go for the stats now since we're not getting anything close to nice spring weather anytime soon. (maybe a day or two in the 50s 3/28-29)

What's the magic number needed to tie the current record?

[ORH_wxman]

19 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

What's the magic number needed to tie the current record?

Today's 1.8" puts them at 41.8" for the month., Record is 44.1" in 1993. So they need 2.3" to tie.

 

There's actually potential for some accumulating snow on Sunday morning from the IVT coming through. But I don't think it looks like enough to tie/break...so we need one more before the month runs out. But you never know...IVTs can be sneaky. An IVT hanging back is actually what got BOS over the finish line in 2015 to break 1995-1996 as their snowiest winter. They weren't expecting as much as they got that day (think they had 3 inches and forecast was for around an inch)

[WinterWolf]

2 hours ago, Snow88 said:

CPC tellies

 

NAO and AO are dropping towards negative by April 1

 

PNA will be rising by April 1.

 

GFS and Euro show a coastal around April 1.

Well Ant, Bastardi agrees with you...says it's not over...lots of cold air coming in and feels a big coastal is going to form along the east coast....comparing it to the way 82 looked, and the way the pattern going forward is setting up.  Certainly no spring for the northeast over the next couple weeks that's for sure.  If we can't get any nice weather, then let it snow again..one last Whopper please!  

 

Says if you live in NY and on North it's going to snow again....

[Sugarloaf1989]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Today's 1.8" puts them at 41.8" for the month., Record is 44.1" in 1993. So they need 2.3" to tie.

 

There's actually potential for some accumulating snow on Sunday morning from the IVT coming through. But I don't think it looks like enough to tie/break...so we need one more before the month runs out. But you never know...IVTs can be sneaky. An IVT hanging back is actually what got BOS over the finish line in 2015 to break 1995-1996 as their snowiest winter. They weren't expecting as much as they got that day (think they had 3 inches and forecast was for around an inch)

You mentioned the possibility of Arctic Air in April. Any idea when?

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

You mentioned the possibility of Arctic Air in April. Any idea when?

EPS has a pretty strong signal for it the first week of the month....keep in mind that arctic air in April is going to be modified quite a bit obviously. It doesn't mean like a high of 25-30F unless a snowstorm is happening that day (ala 4/4/16). An april airmass with like -7C 850 temps and sunny skies is gonna still be like mid-high 40s for highs or even a bit warmer. But it sets the stage for additional snow threats.

[Sugarloaf1989]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

EPS has a pretty strong signal for it the first week of the month....keep in mind that arctic air in April is going to be modified quite a bit obviously. It doesn't mean like a high of 25-30F unless a snowstorm is happening that day (ala 4/4/16). An april airmass with like -7C 850 temps and sunny skies is gonna still be like mid-high 40s for highs or even a bit warmer. But it sets the stage for additional snow threats.

I'm heading up to Sugarloaf April 8-11th.That's why I asked.

[Cold Miser]

21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Today's 1.8" puts them at 41.8" for the month., Record is 44.1" in 1993. So they need 2.3" to tie.

 

There's actually potential for some accumulating snow on Sunday morning from the IVT coming through. But I don't think it looks like enough to tie/break...so we need one more before the month runs out. But you never know...IVTs can be sneaky. An IVT hanging back is actually what got BOS over the finish line in 2015 to break 1995-1996 as their snowiest winter. They weren't expecting as much as they got that day (think they had 3 inches and forecast was for around an inch)

Crap. A few days ago that seemed so do-able.  

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

I'm heading up to Sugarloaf April 8-11th.That's why I asked.

Yeah that's a bit beyond the end of the ensembles...but if D15 (april 6th) is any indication then I'd expect Sugarloaf to be pretty well smothered in snow as long as we avoid any cutter (obv no guarantee this far out).

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that's a bit beyond the end of the ensembles...but if D15 (april 6th) is any indication then I'd expect Sugarloaf to be pretty well smothered in snow as long as we avoid any cutter (obv no guarantee this far out).

Reggae weekend looking good.

[Sugarloaf1989]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that's a bit beyond the end of the ensembles...but if D15 (april 6th) is any indication then I'd expect Sugarloaf to be pretty well smothered in snow as long as we avoid any cutter (obv no guarantee this far out).

Thanks

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I really like how you gave feb a C+ ..and mention enjoying the warmth

I dislike cold and dry and i would certainly Consider down grading for that. 

Rain storms in January to feb 15 also are unacceptable imo..

I personally loved temps in the 60's driving out to hunter mtn in p.m for a 2'+ BOMB

Feb was a D/D+ here, somewhat BN snowfall (one 9" storm and little else of note) and way AN temps.  Dec was a solid B+, coldest of 20 here and a bit AN for snow, with the Christmas storm breaking the Grinch pattern of past years.  Jan is hard to grade - A+ for the first 8 days and D/F for the rest of the month.  Call it a C.  March is heading for a B/B+, with A-level snowfall and C/C- for temps.  Winter should end at C+, barring any horrible or wonderful events in the near future.  (Of note:  I tend to weight snowfall grades twice those for temp, and pack maintenance is important here.) 
 

ha ha, .. .that's that Maud Muller - 
It's actually a poem about shattered dreams of faux expectations

Thanks - I had no clue.  Looks like he wanted her lifestyle and she wanted his.  Has a slight flavor of Gift of the Magi.

[dryslot]

Yeah Mann.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

Reggae weekend looking good.

Nobody does a reggae weekend quite like Sugarloaf does, Mainers  know how to get their party on!

 I've been to a few and at least two of them had flakes in the air mid April.  

[HoarfrostHubb]

We've had accumulating snow in April probably 5-8 times at my house since 1998.  Some have been pretty decent.

That being said, I am thinking this is pretty much it after the weekend.   I will enjoy eating crow, though

[HoarfrostHubb]

35 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Nobody does a reggae weekend quite like Sugarloaf does, Mainers  know how to get their party on!

 I've been to a few and at least two of them had flakes in the air mid April.  

I haven't been since the early 1990s but those were always a blast.

[WinterWolf]

23 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

We've had accumulating snow in April probably 5-8 times at my house since 1998.  Some have been pretty decent.

That being said, I am thinking this is pretty much it after the weekend.   I will enjoy eating crow, though

I'm with ya....but Like Will and also Bastardi and others are saying...pattern looking cold and not very spring like for a couple weeks at least which will bring at least a shot at something wintry...And I too will enjoy eating some crow lol.

[ORH_wxman]

Years with accumulating snow in April at ORH since 2000:

2000, 2002, 2003, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2011, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017.

 

Now, some of them were barely anything...2002, 2009, 2014 and 2015 were under an inch IIRC. But still measurable. Though 2002 also had one in May that dropped around 4-5 inches up near WaWa.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Years with accumulating snow at ORH since 2000:

2000, 2002, 2003, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2011, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017.

 

Now, some of them were barely anything...2002, 2009, 2014 and 2015 were under an inch IIRC. But still measurable. Though 2002 also had one in May that dropped around 4-5 inches up near WaWa.

2016 was a real nice event even down here. 6”+ of mashed potatoes in the middle of the day. Impressive, and shows with good rates it can happen 

[Typhoon Tip]

Not to troll the present tenor re the idea of future winter events ... I understand there are some signs out there and should one of them come to fruition, you can count on me to be fully on board. 

However, for spring enthusiasts, ...hoping on the extended operational Euro. 

That D 6 thru 10 Euro begins slow but steady improvement. 

Have to monitor that west Atlantic climo gyro ... been a few years since we've seen one of those spin down lows that take a week or more to fully fill ... but, so far it is modeled just enough out of reach to at least allow sun - tho still plaguing onshore cold wind.  We gotta start somewhere.  By D8+ a cfropa but the air mass behind rebounds pretty quickly into a mild 850 anomaly.. 

[tamarack]

17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Years with accumulating snow in April at ORH since 2000:

2000, 2002, 2003, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2011, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017.

 

Now, some of them were barely anything...2002, 2009, 2014 and 2015 were under an inch IIRC. But still measurable. Though 2002 also had one in May that dropped around 4-5 inches up near WaWa.

19 Aprils here have totaled 95.0" snowfall, exactly 5"/year, but it's no surprise that April snow is extremely variable.  (It is somewhat surprising that 2016 and 17 saw significantly more snow in SNE, even S.Maine, than in the foothills.  One year, happens not infrequently.  Two in a row, not so often.)  56% of that 95" came in just 2 Aprils, 37.2" in 2007 and 15.6" in 2011.  Three storms from those 2 Aprils are 47% of the total, and outside of those 2 years we've had no April snows greater than 4.0".  14 of 19 have brought 1"+, with 3 (99, 09, 12) having no measurable.  My only May snow other than in Fort Kent was 0.3" in 2002.  Six miles west, Farmington had 3.0" from that 5/13 event, their latest 1"+ on record.  However, their 2 biggest May snows, 9" in 1945 and 7" in 1963, each came just 2 days earlier.)

[OceanStWx]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not to troll the present tenor re the idea of future winter events ... I understand there are some signs out there and should one of them come to fruition, you can count on me to be fully on board. 

However, for spring enthusiasts, ...hoping on the extended operational Euro. 

That D 6 thru 10 Euro begins slow but steady improvement. 

Have to monitor that west Atlantic climo gyro ... been a few years since we've seen one of those spin down lows that take a week or more to fully fill ... but, so far it is modeled just enough out of reach to at least allow sun - tho still plaguing onshore cold wind.  We gotta start somewhere.  By D8+ a cfropa but the air mass behind rebounds pretty quickly into a mild 850 anomaly.. 

Mmm gyro

[OceanStWx]

4 minutes ago, tamarack said:

19 Aprils here have totaled 95.0" snowfall, exactly 5"/year, but it's no surprise that April snow is extremely variable.  (It is somewhat surprising that 2016 and 17 saw significantly more snow in SNE, even S.Maine, than in the foothills.  One year, happens not infrequently.  Two in a row, not so often.)  56% of that 95" came in just 2 Aprils, 37.2" in 2007 and 15.6" in 2011.  Three storms from those 2 Aprils are 47% of the total, and outside of those 2 years we've had no April snows greater than 4.0".  14 of 19 have brought 1"+, with 3 (99, 09, 12) having no measurable.  My only May snow other than in Fort Kent was 0.3" in 2002.  Six miles west, Farmington had 3.0" from that 5/13 event, their latest 1"+ on record.  However, their 2 biggest May snows, 9" in 1945 and 7" in 1963, each came just 2 days earlier.)

Clouds matter a lot for April, and being on the NW fringe does not help ward off that sun angle. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz