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March or BUST! - Pattern & Model Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

We wanted to party with the vomit still everywhere from the night before but in the end we just needed to take a firehose (pun intended) to the place and clean it out....now it's time to party. We got a little pregame potentially Sunday night and then hopefully the main event Wednesday...potential round 2 next weekend as well. 

Kevin may have drank too many wine coolers and puked on the explorer, but time to get the coffee in him and get back on the horse for the next 10-15 days. 

I'll never forget that ....conference of 2007. He had you pull over the Explorer on way home and just projectiled Smitty's all over your door.

I'm in Seattle from Thursday night to Sunday next week.

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4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Or plan your bathroom trips around the model runs..........;)

Dude..... :lmao: .....no lie, I locked myself the bathroom to do that final call :lol: There were nieces and nephews swirling around everywhere...she was pissed.

Little did I know I should have left the forecast in the bathroom when I was finished. :lmao:

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Dude..... :lmao: .....no lie, I locked myself the bathroom to do that final call :lol: There were nieces and nephews swirling around everywhere...she was pissed.

Little did I know I should have left the forecast in the bathroom when I was finished. :lmao:

lol, You learning already, That probably could have went on the second flush................:lol:

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18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd just assume not endeavor to challenge the limitations of a decidedly negative PNA again.

Ha ha! ...

yeah, I hear ya ... But, the PNA rises and goes positive over the next 10 days in at least one of the two agencies.  That's A ...  B, as I was losing the reader in a lot of multi-syllabic words that no one has much hope of understanding, the +PNAP changes the landscape of forcing Ray.

I don't think it's the same thing as a vestigial -PNA/SE ridge going through this upcoming 2-week period (call it..).  This newer paradigm offers much less supportive large scale backing for a SE ridge maintenance.  And with a western bulge allowed to evolve, like we see in most guidance ...  Put it this way, the next storm is NOT going to turn right and sink toward Bermuda given where we are headed.  Not a chance.

Plus... as other's have correctly noted, the air mass over everywhere is completely different.  You know, in a way?  ...this last storm, for all it's butt bruisin' antics...maybe it was necessary to truly get us where winter enthusiasts need to be.  

 

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ha ha! ...

yeah, I hear ya ... But, the PNA rises and goes positive over the next 10 days in at least one of the two agencies.  That's A ...  B, as I was losing the reader in a lot of multi-syllabic words that no one has much hope of understanding, the +PNAP changes the landscape of forcing Ray.

I don't think it's the same thing as a vestigial -PNA/SE ridge going through this upcoming 2-week period (call it..).  This newer paradigm offers much less supportive large scale backing for a SE ridge maintenance.  And with a western bulge allowed to evolve, like we see in most guidance ...  Put it this way, the next storm is NOT going to turn right and sink toward Bermuda given where we are headed.  Not a chance.  

Yea, probably more important than a +PNA mode...we have the PNA ascending smartly as the ridge approaches.....the modularity is where its at. 

In my mind, I think that forecast would have been worse had the event whiffed because the huge coastal impact was the main story, regardless of snowfall. The huge event was there, but the thermals didn't work out.

"A+" grade for long range call and identification of storm period and attendant blocking...."F" for the medium range snowfall call.

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Soundings are actually pretty weenieish for BOS on Sunday night. Very steep lapse rates up to about 800mb and then an isothermal layer above that around -14 to 16C. Wouldn't be shocking if there were some nice bursts. 

IMG_1037.GIF

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I dunno man..

The GFS is about a pube away from being a wicked storm ... wow. 

There is a small potent parcel of arctic dynamics pinwheeling around the GL SPV ...and that tries to subsume the coastal wave but just...barely misses doing so... 

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