weathafella Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 7 hours ago, BombsAway1288 said: Because the 1980's were snowless compared to the 90's, 2000's and 2010's They had a lot of near 0 winters since 1990. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 8 minutes ago, weathafella said: They had a lot of near 0 winters since 1990. Yeah the 1980s weren't that bad down there. They were horrendous up in New England though. Our 30 year averages will def go up. BOS may be like 47" in the new 30 year average but not sure how they smooth it. They may not raise it as much since they use some sort of smoothing Algorithm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 The GGEM solution last night did what no other verified system this year has ... actually produced a K.U. storm... I-95 corridor style - although arguable with some mix issues on the short side of that metric. The Euro solution came in more amplified ... that's the important take away. One aspect I would like to point out to the crooning cinematic audience of the modeling mise en scene ... the Euro has a known seaward bias along the eastern seaboard ... NCEP pointed that out a coupe of times this winter in their Ext. range discussions, often having to correct westward in short ranges. It may "seem" like guess work, but I can aver clad scientific reasoning why this is a candidate scenario for just such a bias, and combing those with the former fact that it was indeed more amplified, that hearkens to a bigger impact potential for me. Regardless of the specific model's bias, et al, we are still clearly having some sampling issue in the runs. The 00z to 06z comparison among the MESO models (I think) plays homage to that. The 00z NAM and that ICON model both took a similar tact that moved closer to a GGEM total solutiion, but then, ...en masse, they both went less amplified in almost precise measure - certainly by evolution-complexion that was true - on the very next cycle, the 06z, which is not a run that gets the complete benefit of the physical input. That sort of mirror behavior among cousin solutions disparate nonetheless, tells me that input (as in the initialization) is more likely the cause for continuity irregularities there. The flow upstream from the Pacific into western N/A could not be more complex. It's midland to weak stream nebularity that the models then try to resolve out in time... and, out in time, this whole ejection east of placeholder trough construct, it is taking place in a non-traditional PNAP. The ridge in the west is not really in a stronger configuration on the heels of the ejected material, ...whereby, the whole circulation medium would more traditionally force a deeper solution in the east due to wave spacing/reasons. This is a crumble up sort of event on the EC, where downstream residual -NAO tendencies is forcing the front of the wave to slow, and that's sort of akin to a tsunamis metaphor - that's when the front of wave slows against the land, and the back of the wave then rears above...and so on. Not sure what would serve as a for better-than-worse analog for this sort of total evolution. Perhaps Feb 8-10, 1969 or even March 1960 ... these are examples of more modest western ridges but waves that rolled up and broke in a flatter type of flow once they succeed the 80th and/or 70th longitudes. The models never do as well with back-logged wave spacing arguments as they do when things are in a nice orderly west to east procession of events and features. That much I know. And, I don't think the western ridge is going to be showing up to these affairs. ...The -PNA preceding and during is probably helping to negate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 7 hours ago, BombsAway1288 said: Because the 1980's were snowless compared to the 90's, 2000's and 2010's I took the average at DCA starting at 1991-92 and not counting this winter yet. Lower than previous 30 years. 13.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Nothing doing on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Nothing doing on the NAM Yeah it really either was shadowed and missed a lot of data, or... it is finally sampling it ... It's so drastically different when comparing the last more input dense run, the 00z cycle, that I don't think it's much use without more continuity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 1 hour ago, dryslot said: Going to be a bumper crop of them this year. Not messing around. I’m getting the entire propery sprayed. I’ll take the fam away for the weekend and let the chemicals do their thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 For this second wave is the elephant in the room not the huge confluence that won't go away I mean that **** streak is just imposing its will ESE off maine coast for what..next 66 hrs then it goes more west-east thru n.n.e into thursday 0z nam had less imposing confluence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 WOW! RGEM seems to be following the Canadian theme: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 gfs better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 GFS is a tiny tiny bit better. Clips cape with some snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 12z CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: gfs better. And GGEM is not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: GFS is a tiny tiny bit better. Clips cape with some snow Look at the mid levels for bigger improvements... surface maps are meaningless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 4 minutes ago, CTWeatherFreak said: And GGEM is not... Hard to get invested in this threat. Not much consistency in any model, and nothing really showing anything good. Ways to go though. See what ensembles look like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 I’d rather the gfs show something better than the schizophrenic CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Isn't the GGEM the best thing since the napkin was invented? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Isn't the GGEM the best thing since the napkin was invented? Apparently the ICON and CMC hold more value to some. anyways we track. Certainly close enough at this range for something better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Icon looks worse than 06z... whatever that is worth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: Apparently the ICON and CMC hold more value to some. anyways we track. Certainly close enough at this range for something better. I value neither, They swing wildly run to run, How can anybody that at least is half knowledgeable place any stock in them is beyond me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Icon looks worse than 06z... whatever that is worth worth less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Have not looked at much guidance on this one yet but just briefly, It sounds like there are a few things to overcome to get this up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 GFS is not far off a good deformation for eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 I value neither, They swing wildly run to run, How can anybody that at least is half knowledgeable place any stock in them is beyond me.And if it was showing a big hit, folks would be dry humping it. That happened a few storms ago if I recall. Weenies being weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS is not far off a good deformation for eastern areas. Ray signed on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Uncle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 9 minutes ago, weathafella said: Uncle? I beleive its 4'th Q now (beginning) and we are down 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I beleive its 4'th Q now (beginning) and we are down 10 But what did uncle show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: But what did uncle show? It probably hits eastern areas pretty hard on the 2nd wave it seems based on the surface maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: But what did uncle show? It went west pretty good. 994LP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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