Ginx snewx Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 56 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ski trip mode So lacking in information of my former friend to think I don't care when I have a home family and business to worry about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro perfectly spaces all three shortwaves so that it is minimal impact. Kind of comical actually. It's so easy to see the potential but that shortwave spacing is mucking it up. Running out of time. Still a shot but that needs to get cleaned up quickly. Stop wishing this away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Lots of anger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Gotta say though...even if this next one misses, that is not it. Another right in the pipeline....which has some ens support. Today's OP euro is pretty fun. That's like a January or February overrunning setup. Really cold high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Gotta say though...even if this next one misses, that is not it. Another right in the pipeline....which has some ens support. Today's OP euro is pretty fun. That's like a January or February overrunning setup. Really cold high. Yep the 26th to 28th has been popping up more and more, and hey just in time for your ski trip! Go Rhody Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Lots of anger. Wishing for snow can be a dangerous hobby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Models are still struggling on which low to hang the hat on. I wouldn't turn my back on it yet. Should resolve itself in the next day or so. Still time as we've seen some decent corrections at day 3 even. Maybe it whiffs but I wouldn't put money on that right now. Not a smart bet at this moment in my opinion. For my own selfish reasons I hope it's a complete whiff. I have a t-time set up for next Friday. Love me some early season golf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 The 12z eps looked better than 00z for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The 12z eps looked better than 00z for sure. Definetly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Yeah was just gonna post...EPS is not giving up on the Wednesday night idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah was just gonna post...EPS is not giving up on the Wednesday night idea. Plenty of time for trending. It’s on the back burner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah was just gonna post...EPS is not giving up on the Wednesday night idea. snow and qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 There she comes folks. Hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 I think I can stick a fork into whatever happens next week, whatever might happen in SNE is not coming up this far north. Just to keep you guys in perpetual winter mode, and for pure fun I attached the 10 day Euro snowfall totals . I think we can look this one in. As DIT would say, oh boy, oh boy, oh boy... Meanwhile, crazy wind, blowing snow and super cold up here this afternoon. That cold front that past mid day means business. Temps falling even with a March 17th full sun. Pure winter mode... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Just now, wxeyeNH said: I think I can stick a fork into whatever happens next week, whatever might happen in SNE is not coming up this far north. Just to keep you guys in perpetual winter mode, and for pure fun I attached the 10 day Euro snowfall totals . I think we can look this one in. As DIT would say, oh boy, oh boy, oh boy... Meanwhile, crazy wind, blowing snow and super cold up here this afternoon. That cold front that past mid day means business. Temps falling even with a March 17th full sun. Pure winter mode... 2 days no melting down here in Mid March is quite the feat. I like our chances for the 2nd chance a lot. First could still come North but time is running out for anything major Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: She coming . Ensemble approach Ensemble Lol, dude that looks awful 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Gotta say though...even if this next one misses, that is not it. Another right in the pipeline....which has some ens support. Today's OP euro is pretty fun. That's like a January or February overrunning setup. Really cold high. Yeah, but if that doesn't work out I am comfortable calling it for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 39 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: There she comes folks. Hard shes faking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 The 'pattern' as it has been behaving .. which has consisted of -NAO west based and/or tendencies there in, is going away. That's per the GEFs ensemble based teleconnector spread. We have about this week; by next weekend, the phase has flipped in the mean/derivatives ... and with an on-going -PNA ... this next system may be it. This is the fourth consecutive day of very persistent teleconnector change coming from both agencies... +PNA ..? Gone as of today (actually) and the NAO has through Wed or Thursday and then it's positive. Granted others may have access to EPS based derivatives that do or don't support - .. I have come to find that the weight of the GEFs based performs reasonably well during mode changes however, at least predicting times when that's setting in, just the same. There is that caveat 'bowling season' thing, and post this -NAO it is not abundantly clear we are going to rush into balmy times. The operational models have been hesitant to really latch onto a pattern change ... but that's not atypical (I have found) when attempting to migrate from a cool to warm complexion. It seems they rush in changes to cold, and lag changes to warm - not sure why that is... But, with the -PNA/+NAO combination, along with considering pattern residence times associated with NOA typically not last as long as other planetary signals ... mm, smacks as one of those times. As for this week, there's still a lot of hope there that this will get more charged as the week progresses. I don't see the book as closed on this because of the usual suspect uncertainty factors... data sampling/wave origins... complex stream interactions and native model biases, all of which offer a cornucopia of reasons there's less coherent storm genesis. It still looks from 100,000 feat on ensemble members like it's just a placeholder moving through the flow ... waiting for something to actually be in it. That said, yeah ...it could certainly wobble by to the south spawning innocuous inconsequential waves ... followed by 4 or 5 days of cool blustery annoyingly boring weather before any said deeper push toward spring takes place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 21 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: shes faking POTY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Darn good storm on 18z gfs. Plenty of time to correct the location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Better s/w ridging rolling out ahead is a more impressive look, albeit incrementally, on this cycle so far.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Yup , as folks are drinking the day away, we’re getting the massive corrections north that many of us knew would be coming. Game on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Winter isn't done after next week on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 18z GEFS looked good for second low. Decent on the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 I watched three TV mets at 6pm, basically saying the storm in a NO, 10% chance of getting us..........I know I would have said "still watching" for next week or something....anyways, I hope we get something so they can back pedal ! (lol most won't) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 And here come the Gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Today, just the tip shown on the ens. Tomorrow, the smashes return on the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 It's def a good sign that both the EPS and GEFS are NW of the OP runs. That signal has worked quite well over the years. We will need to see a real move though in the next 24 hours. If 00z tonight goes the wrong way then this one will be on life support...but if it bumps NW then we are right in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Today, just the tip shown on the ens. Tomorrow, the smashes return on the op. Right now we're the team that has been hanging around all game...it's the 3rd quarter now and we're down a touchdown. Still in the game but the next score is big...whichever team it goes to has a huge impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: It's def a good sign that both the EPS and GEFS are NW of the OP runs. That signal has worked quite well over the years. We will need to see a real move though in the next 24 hours. If 00z tonight goes the wrong way then this one will be on life support...but if it bumps NW then we are right in the game. and I still think there's sampling missing wave mechanics into this thing... NCEP's been hitting sparseness pretty hard. When/if that happens.. the whole lead system could be damped more in lieu of spacing contentions... Or, the lead could become more dominant - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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