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March or BUST! - Pattern & Model Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

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18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We want the first wave to slow down/deepen out west. That will bring this north and allow wave 2 to catch up to it enough...the other option is to have it weaken so much that is doesn't really inhibit wave 2 but I think that is quite unlikely. It's a bowling ball so the chances of it becoming weakened/sheared out are much lower than it slowing down and amplifying. 

Yeah second option is difficult to do. I was hoping wave 1 would be the bigger one and take advantage of the BZ, but it’s latitudinally challenged at the moment. 

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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah second option is difficult to do. I was hoping wave 1 would be the bigger one and take advantage of the BZ, but it’s latitudinally challenged at the moment. 

Been out of the loop, guessing Crazy UNK  hit the Guinness way way too hard last night with a stalled  990 just outside the Cape

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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Uncle loves to throw  QPF max on the coast with every event.

 

Anyways, the GEFS members are interesting. Some make the first impulse a rather weak wave, and then the second one blows up and curls north. Gives a blizzard.

Yea seen more than one EPS member take that rout the last couple of runs. UNK spreads the wealth not just on the coast, what a weenie run

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The 2nd wave is where it will happen for us if we get a big hit I think. It's why we want it to "catch" the first wave before it goes too far east. You see the initial wave go well south but before it can totally grab the baroclinic zone well east, it sort of gets sucked back into the amplifying second wave and the second wave become dominant. You see the Ukie do this to the max obviously. 

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18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The 2nd wave is where it will happen for us if we get a big hit I think. It's why we want it to "catch" the first wave before it goes too far east. You see the initial wave go well south but before it can totally grab the baroclinic zone well east, it sort of gets sucked back into the amplifying second wave and the second wave become dominant. You see the Ukie do this to the max obviously. 

To recep

And do maximize this potential, we want first wave to deepen (Out "west") and that will Slow it and pull it Further north, Where Second wave could "grab" it in a decent position for us

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2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

To recep

And do maximize this potential, we want first wave to deepen (Out "west") and that will Slow it and pull it Further north, Where Second wave could "grab" it in a decent position for us

Yes. There's other ways too...like mentioned before if it becomes extremely weak and outruns the second wave by a lot, but that is unlikely. Also if the confluence up north weakens a lot to allow first wave to gain a lot more latitude but that doesn't seem likely either. That's been pretty steady and strong the past few runs. 

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1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Ginxy special on the 12z NAM.  

People going to think I am crazy but don't want. I am away in Maine all week and after 3 damaging power loss storms I am nervous about my wife alone. She knows how to run the Genny and all but it's a lot if work for one. I already broke my personal March record so it's all good if we wiff but it I had a choice it would be the 24th 25th second wave option

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