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March or BUST! - Pattern & Model Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

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12 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

This reminds me some of the run-up to Boxing Day.  We had a great long-wave pattern with that one, but the models couldn't resolve the plethora of short waves until about 48 hours before the event.  I am not expecting a powerhouse storm like that...but something pretty good seems within the realm.

Why would this one buck the seasonal trend anyways? I mean we have not had a system that was a lock at a long lead this season, We have had a few that looked good potentially but still needed to get inside day 3 or less to see who the haves and have nots would be, I see this one following the same pattern.

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There is an end to this if one believes the GEF tele's .. how dare I mention it but it could break warmer pretty quickly in 10 days. 

One thing I find interesting is that over the last 10 years .. with increasing frequency when patterns break cold or hot it's alway got to be 40 deg in like 4 days  

the operationals aren't biting just yet ... supposing for the moment that the GEFs signal is correct. But the PNA goes neutral negative and the EPO appears less effective due to wave lengths already changing.  Therefore when the NAO flip signs and it does pretty dramatically going from -2 to +2 standard deviation, that really leaves eastern North America open to some kind of ridging. I think it's possible that as we get closer to day 7 8 9, after the storm next week… we could see that burgeon into existence 

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5 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

I did hear the day after the storm that Carl Parker at TWC said Wilmington had 30", so I would be quite content to see that mentioned nationally.  I'm sure it was Ray's report.

NWS will not give me a straight answer on why my report was discarded any favor of one with a 3.12" liquid equivalent.

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54 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

NWS will not give me a straight answer on why my report was discarded any favor of one with a 3.12" liquid equivalent.

Wish you would have documented it on video. Maybe they saw the depth video on FB where you measured on top of the garbage can near the house. I totally believe you. 

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36 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Wish you would have documented it on video. Maybe they saw the depth video on FB where you measured on top of the garbage can near the house. I totally believe you. 

Even so....that is a sheltered area.

I don't understand the issue.

Its always representative.

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I have a really dumb question.

After you read my question, after picking yourselves up off of the floor from laughing so hard at my profound retardation lmao, Does Rossby Wave Training across the CONUS contribute to the development of major nor'easters?

Thanks very very much in advance.

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