March or BUST! - Pattern & Model Discussion

[Typhoon Tip]

48 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not worried about supression....larger concern may be that the system gets sheared apart.

In a base-line conceptual/teleconnection argument ... if you will, the NAO is reduced in the numbers. 

Thus, the eastern North American escape latitudes of the westerlies, which of course includes anything embedded in it ... , should all lift up the eastern seaboard.  There are obviously other planetary wave structures in the large scope that play a role in said latitudes; but the NAO's sort of "back-logging" influence being alleviated some, might mean less having to rely upon a giant bomb's circumvallate to get storm influence far enough west to impact actual land - like the last eye-roller. 

Personally (...seeing as you asked and care so teary-eyed deeply what I have to say ...), I think that despite as prominent as those eye-pop snow totals were, and despite the knee-jerk vitriol this post is certainly going to ignite, ...that event had less of the "it" factor. It was like the super star athletic talent that only pads their own statistics into history.

I suppose it is going to be hard to find that  this late in the year, any year... so in fairness, we get what we get in March.  But, 1888? That would cripple by any standards, any era, save perhaps some futuristic Sci-Fi weather control matrix world of technological utopia (where the dystopian hearts of the present company of snow angels have been cast to an eternal hell ..), which we are not. Although, in a sardonic sense of it... AGW is kind of like a weather control matrix ...just sloppy as hell.  Heh

I think the evidence of matters is that the regions of deeper snow were not that pervasive.  Mainly, eastern zones, with pokadot gaps where bands didn't time right and all that crap.  Our now defunct small sub-forum geographical area (we now include NNE in this...).  But the state of Massivetwoschits is not a big area to begin with, and we're talking the eastern 1/3 of that space..  I have a special appreciation for the NESDIS scale developed by Kocin and Uccellini (check spl..), because it conveys the spatial impact necessity of these bragging rights...

People are going to think violent thoughts of rage and resent toward this thinking ... because their backyard a-hole high stacks of snow, of course, must represent the entirety of everywhere. But, the cat needs to take it's head out of the bag and realize that the back 9/10th of it's ass was sticking out in mediocrity on this... 

There was something also weird about this snow, frankly.  That may sound odd to say... but I wonder if the fact that this cyclone never really got closer than 250 naut miles ESE of ISP might have something to do about it.  It was like large amounts of fluff, so massive that we managed 2.0" liquid (yes...perhaps more or less) falling into a near freezing surface. Impressive? Of course. However,  if that storm was close we probably would have had a denser fall, spread out over a larger areas, but lower total "tallness" of the depth because the "stack efficiency" of the snow would have been less, yet at greater water content.  We got basically 24" of snow out of 1.8" of liquid equivalence... In 1888, they probably got 4" of water at a colder temperature out west, out of a storm that was situated over ACK as opposed to like 300 nautical miles away but by circumstance of girth we got lucky.  

But I digress...

Re next week:  ...yesterday I amused that the modeling depictions on average was like a box that got sent down the assemble line that was missing its product.  Last night's runs seem to put some of the parts.  We may also just be too used to seeing deep bombs on these mid and extended range charts, and forget that sometimes...the place-holders are all we need until the lesser side of mid range starts stuffing them with the goods.  

[Damage In Tolland]

17 minutes ago, dendrite said:

 

 

Yup. Glad we live here 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

18 minutes ago, dendrite said:

 

 

As usual... I’d say most options still on the table at this lead

[tamarack]

If it's "only" a SWFE, that would be fine.  Another 6-10" for the capper.  And as others have noted (often), the sun angle is easily defeated by intensity.  The anomalous coastal of 4/19/83 produced accumulating snow thru the middle of the day in NNJ, sun angle same as August 23rd.

 

Yes, the nasty sun was gone, it affected Pineiella earlier in the game and stuck his glove out and got lucky. After 2004, those old memories fade.

I forget who was on 1st when Remy came up, but that fellow should've made it to 3rd easily.  Sure, he had to delay, waiting to see if the ball would be caught, but the Pinella lucky stab left Sweet Lou leaning back and facing the foul line, the worst possible position for a rightie to make a strong quick throw.  A man on 3rd and Rice's fly ties the game. 
(IMO, the Maz game is right up there, in part due to the antecedents - 3 NY blowouts and 3 close wins by the Pirates.  Then: 4-0 Pittsburgh!  7-4 NY!  Pirates score 5 in the 8th! {assist to the Forbes IF], and Mantle eludes the tag to keep the top 9th alive while the tying run scores.  Then...)

[STILL N OF PIKE]

32 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

.Euro  was def slow to catch on with last system outside of D3...it was pretty far E. It did well inside of 48 hours though other than the one burp run.

 

I'll point out though that it wasn't wrong in every system inside of D3 this month...the previous system (the obscene paste bomb on 3/7-8) it absolutely schooled other guidance showing the colder/east solution while the GFS and NAM were busy driving the low up Ginxy's fanny and jackpotting Oneonta, NY.

I believe that is a fair assesment Of euro in first paragraph 

 

I believe for scott ginxy and oldfella :), the euro could of gone to Bermuda and they would of said but but but it did fine w this. The OP struggled extremely. That crap run that nite day and a half out was a joke. Yes ensembles were much better. Thank goodness we got the swissy

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I believe that is a fair assesment Of euro in first paragraph 

 

I believe for scott ginxy and oldfella :), the euro could of gone to Bermuda and they would of said but but but it did fine w this. The OP struggled extremely. That crap run that nite day and a half out was a joke. Yes ensembles were much better. Thank goodness we got the swissy

Dude, Will said exactly what I said. Oye.

[CoastalWx]

Swiss wasn't great either.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Swiss wasn't great either.

Def joking about swiss. Didnt look at it.

Btv wrf did Real well inside 72

[Typhoon Tip]

So anyway... the basic storm track in a -NAO is off the M/A ... Overly exert the -NAO, and it ends up too far S.. But just in the right measure? It's downright Bench Markian!

That's the problem sort of in a nut shell I have with the "too much reliance" on the negative phase state of the NAO.  The last two or three weeks of this thing have been a charmed state of affairs for us - though the first storm chapter in the series was cold starved.. The NAO was west based, but it wasn't predominating the flow that suppressing extent.  This will undoubtedly get the masses into a ready and willing state to re-embrace the NAO too much.  That's fine - it's a frustration I'll have to live with...

But that's a different annoyance for a different time.  In the here and now... with the NAO being if anything even less exerting (because it is weakening in all agency prognostics..) I don't see how ...more importantly, 'why' that has to mean suppression is favored.   It seems to me that individuals may be seeing squashed appearance in the pressure pattern offered up by various operational runs and running with that as a suppressed system. That's not the same.  I don't perceive the larger sort of 'canvas' of bigger scoped players really dictating suppression.  

What that is next week is a middling wave structure trying to overcome a lower tropospheric polar high. That's what's causing that dammed cold look with the 'split' in the cyclone evolution. That's not really the same as large scale circulation suppression.  If the -NAO was suppressing in that nature, you'd see a compressed height field in the east with lot of lines and screaming mid level wind velocities outside of local-scaled jet maxes.  

If anything, this system really is like a placeholder in the atmosphere and all it really needs is some bit of N/stream mechanics to dump in ...or maybe a more proficient total stream sampling... whatever, and that turns into probably into the biggest storm this month - yes, that includes the last.  It would be bigger because those prodigious snow totals would be more pervasively realized, as well...have bigger water content contained, as well, ... a slower moving ordeal.  

Until that happens, we have this weird bag of vorticity jetlets rattling around in a big bag of medium gradients up underneath a fairly strong negative SD thickness tapestry/polar high.  

[Ginx snewx]

Holy wind gust

[ORH_wxman]

15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

So anyway... the basic storm track in a -NAO is off the M/A ... Overly exert the -NAO, and it ends up too far S.. But just in the right measure? It's downright Bench Markian!

That's the problem sort of in a nut shell I have with the "too much reliance" on the negative phase state of the NAO.  The last two or three weeks of this thing have been a charmed state of affairs for us - though the first storm chapter in the series was cold starved.. The NAO was west based, but it wasn't predominating the flow that suppressing extent.  This will undoubtedly get the masses into a ready and willing state to re-embrace the NAO too much.  That's fine - it's a frustration I'll have to live with...

But that's a different annoyance for a different time.  In the here and now... with the NAO being if anything even less exerting (because it is weakening in all agency prognostics..) I don't see how ...more importantly, 'why' that has to mean suppression is favored.   It seems to me that individuals may be seeing squashed appearance in the pressure pattern offered up by various operational runs and running with that as a suppressed system. That's not the same.  I don't perceive the larger sort of 'canvas' of bigger scoped players really dictating suppression.  

What that is next week is a middling wave structure trying to overcome a lower tropospheric polar high. That's what's causing that dammed cold look with the 'split' in the cyclone evolution. That's not really the same as large scale circulation suppression.  If the -NAO was suppressing in that nature, you'd see a compressed height field in the east with lot of lines and screaming mid level wind velocities outside of local-scaled jet maxes.  

If anything, this system really is like a placeholder in the atmosphere and all it really needs is some bit of N/stream mechanics to dump in ...or maybe a more proficient total stream sampling... whatever, and that turns into probably into the biggest storm this month - yes, that includes the last.  It would be bigger because those prodigious snow totals would be more pervasively realized, as well...have bigger water content contained, as well, ... a slower moving ordeal.  

Until that happens, we have this weird bag of vorticity jetlets rattling around in a big bag of medium gradients up underneath a fairly strong negative SD thickness tapestry/polar high.  

I agree...I've been on the north train with this one the past couple days. There's a lot of reasons it will want to come north...however there is obviously a limit with that PV lobe in SE Canada. But it's not like it's being held there by an intense west based block....it is moveable to a certain extent.

 

That 2nd northern stream shortwave diving in from MN/IA really ignites the whole thing on some of these runs.

[Typhoon Tip]

Fwiw - 

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

221 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2018 VALID 12Z MON MAR 19 2018 - 12Z FRI MAR 23 2018

...LATE-SEASON WINTER STORM FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST NEXT WEEK... ...SPRAWLING SYSTEM TO PUSH INTO THE WEST LATER NEXT WEEK... ...OVERVIEW... EAST... WINTER WILL NOT GO OUT QUIETLY IN THE EAST AS A COMPLEX EVOLUTION BRINGS A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO REDEVELOP OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD NEXT TUE-FRI. THE MODELS HAVE HAD A TOUGH TIME WITH HOW (AND WHERE) THE MANY PLAYERS IN THE FORECAST INTERACT BUT THE ENSEMBLE SIGNAL REMAINS QUITE LOUD FOR AT LEAST AN INTERIOR AND HIGHER ELEVATION HEAVY SNOW THREAT TO THE MID-ATLANTIC (AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS) INTO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE COURSE OF SEVERAL DAYS.

 

Also... gee ... like, 11 or the 12 members have this system next week (GEFs). That's pretty amazing for an ensemble group of runs that don't typical act to syncophantic solutions that merely ass-kiss their operational more popular kid on the block (EPS).   Although, I do find it interesting that the EPS seemed a bit flatter than the operational Euro - perhaps lending to the previous bit about suppression fears. However, I suggest that is more having to do with the potency of the impulse(s) its self. 

[Damage In Tolland]

16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Holy wind gust

Pics?

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I agree...I've been on the north train with this one the past couple days. There's a lot of reasons it will want to come north...however there is obviously a limit with that PV lobe in SE Canada. But it's not like it's being held there by an intense west based block....it is moveable to a certain extent.

 

That 2nd northern stream shortwave diving in from MN/IA really ignites the whole thing on some of these runs.

dude i was just looking at that - heh. 

yeah, that 'could be' the missing component there.  I gotta say, this thing ... I tell you what, if this gets a better/bigger/cleaner phased piece of mechanics, the slower overall motion of the entire construct is more conducive to the 'type' of phasing the last system failed to do...  These southern bombs are weird... they don't 'want' to phase .. you almost need a weak paltry southern stream and then the N/stream bullies.  

Anyway, something 'like' this set up is less challenged in that regard.  

[jbenedet]

It's really an odd evolution of sorts, but it seems to me that the first deep shortwave gets blocked and slowed to such an extent that the trailing shortwave phases with it, and the new "bigger disturbance" quickly cuts off at H5. And at that point the -NAO block has sufficiently weakened to the point that downstream heights can be amplified along the east coast. 

[ORH_wxman]

I split out the 1978 vs 2004 talk to the banter thread for those who want to continue it there.

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

It's really an odd evolution of sorts, but it seems to me that the first deep shortwave gets blocked and slowed to such an extent that the trailing shortwave phases with it, and the new "bigger disturbance" quickly cuts off at H5. And at that point the -NAO block has sufficiently weakened to the point that downstream heights can be amplified along the east coast. 

Chris (Oceanwx I think his name) was commenting yesterday that I rather liked... 

The gist of which is that the general hobbyists and/or Mets of us shouldn't focus on a particular wave in this verkokte trundling bag of road-house vort-maxes vying for dominance. Pick a model cycle, the model(s) will likely focus on one and then drops it two runs later in lieu of another. 

Typically we see this in wave-space contention scenarios ...and then was we get closer and/or something more physically important gets sampled upstream, the models then "pick one".  

I'm not sure we're there yet?  But... the 12z is coming out... I tell you, the 00z Euro really really exposes it's "clean up" protocols in that runs overall complexion - talking about that technologies' smoothing 4-D thing.  You see much less individual wave-space contentions and a more coherent singular closing middle strength 500 mb surface evolve by D6 in that run.  Contrasting like the GGEM? heh my god... it so discordant that nothing really can get going at all.  

[Hoth]

GFS looks like it's teeing up some SNE weenie fodder.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

In a base-line conceptual/teleconnection argument ... if you will, the NAO is reduced in the numbers. 

Thus, the eastern North American escape latitudes of the westerlies, which of course includes anything embedded in it ... , should all lift up the eastern seaboard.  There are obviously other planetary wave structures in the large scope that play a role in said latitudes; but the NAO's sort of "back-logging" influence being alleviated some, might mean less having to rely upon a giant bomb's circumvallate to get storm influence far enough west to impact actual land - like the last eye-roller. 

Personally (...seeing as you asked and care so teary-eyed deeply what I have to say ...), I think that despite as prominent as those eye-pop snow totals were, and despite the knee-jerk vitriol this post is certainly going to ignite, ...that event had less of the "it" factor. It was like the super star athletic talent that only pads their own statistics into history.

I suppose it is going to be hard to find that  this late in the year, any year... so in fairness, we get what we get in March.  But, 1888? That would cripple by any standards, any era, save perhaps some futuristic Sci-Fi weather control matrix world of technological utopia (where the dystopian hearts of the present company of snow angels have been cast to an eternal hell ..), which we are not. Although, in a sardonic sense of it... AGW is kind of like a weather control matrix ...just sloppy as hell.  Heh

I think the evidence of matters is that the regions of deeper snow were not that pervasive.  Mainly, eastern zones, with pokadot gaps where bands didn't time right and all that crap.  Our now defunct small sub-forum geographical area (we now include NNE in this...).  But the state of Massivetwoschits is not a big area to begin with, and we're talking the eastern 1/3 of that space..  I have a special appreciation for the NESDIS scale developed by Kocin and Uccellini (check spl..), because it conveys the spatial impact necessity of these bragging rights...

People are going to think violent thoughts of rage and resent toward this thinking ... because their backyard a-hole high stacks of snow, of course, must represent the entirety of everywhere. But, the cat needs to take it's head out of the bag and realize that the back 9/10th of it's ass was sticking out in mediocrity on this... 

There was something also weird about this snow, frankly.  That may sound odd to say... but I wonder if the fact that this cyclone never really got closer than 250 naut miles ESE of ISP might have something to do about it.  It was like large amounts of fluff, so massive that we managed 2.0" liquid (yes...perhaps more or less) falling into a near freezing surface. Impressive? Of course. However,  if that storm was close we probably would have had a denser fall, spread out over a larger areas, but lower total "tallness" of the depth because the "stack efficiency" of the snow would have been less, yet at greater water content.  We got basically 24" of snow out of 1.8" of liquid equivalence... In 1888, they probably got 4" of water at a colder temperature out west, out of a storm that was situated over ACK as opposed to like 300 nautical miles away but by circumstance of girth we got lucky.  

But I digress...

Re next week:  ...yesterday I amused that the modeling depictions on average was like a box that got sent down the assemble line that was missing its product.  Last night's runs seem to put some of the parts.  We may also just be too used to seeing deep bombs on these mid and extended range charts, and forget that sometimes...the place-holders are all we need until the lesser side of mid range starts stuffing them with the goods.  

Yes...good point RE the waning NAO...Should have mentioned that in my laundry list of reasons why this won't whiff in the blog early this AM. Left that out.

Thanks, John. 

[CoastalWx]

That’s a nice look around these parts. Love the high.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s a nice look around these parts. Love the high.

Curved banana up yo fanny?

[Hoth]

Lol, warming up a second low at 132. Long duration verbatim. And yeah, that high is crucial.

[JC-CT]

GFS = #winning

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Been very consistent in mid range here.

[JKEisMan]

Well that was a weenie run for the south coast all the way down to nyc.

 

[CoastalWx]

 I feel like we may be getting away from the double barrel nonsense, and putting all our eggs in the front runner low basket. 

[jbenedet]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 I feel like we may be getting away from the double barrel nonsense, and putting all our eggs in the front runner low basket. 

Yea. Agreed. it's going to be one cohesive system by the time it gets to our region...

[Cyclone-68]

My co workers are about to riot at the prospect of using another vacation day for another storm next week 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 I feel like we may be getting away from the double barrel nonsense, and putting all our eggs in the front runner low basket. 

No shock..usually ends up focused into one.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, Cyclone-68 said:

My co workers are about to riot at the prospect of using another vacation day for another storm next week 

Work from home!