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March or BUST! - Pattern & Model Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

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  On 3/15/2018 at 6:18 PM, dendrite said:

The guy looked outside and said "****...2ft of snow. i don't want to go out in it and read the temp. let's call it 50" so i have an excuse."

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I mean, we do have a few coops that are pushing 90 (if not in their 90s) and they would absolutely blow it off if they looked outside and saw a fresh 30+ inches. 

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  On 3/15/2018 at 6:08 PM, Sugarloaf1989 said:

I actually like where I live now, cant shovel or walk in the snow very well anymore. It's interesting  to see the valley get 0.0001" of snow while the surrounding areas get buried.

Being close to 1-91 is also handy for skiing access.

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Was great skiing with you, hang in there man you are an inspiration and get the most out of life while you can. Valley Girls was a joke about all the bitchin last event, believe me been there done that being so close to the marine layer.

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  On 3/15/2018 at 6:42 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Ya and they Have one of deepest right fields, Which red sox fans and good fantasy baseball players know. So unless your hitting within 5-8 Within The right field line right field in fenway Is not close to a lefty dream like Ny.

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It was a tongue in cheek comment. 

I've been following baseball since 1978. One of my first memories and why i play SS, well....ya know.

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  On 3/15/2018 at 6:43 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Was great skiing with you, hang in there man you are an inspiration and get the most out of life while you can. Valley Girls was a joke about all the bitchin last event, believe me been there done that being so close to the marine layer.

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Thanks, enjoy Sunday River. I'm planning on going to Sugarloaf April 9-11th.

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Spring complexion exists there, too... 

seasonality trending - 

I mean ... July is still inevitable here. Matter of when I suppose.  I mentioned this a few days ago in passing, but I see this every year ... particularly more evident when it gets cool/snowy late (2014 is another good example...) how it holds out and then usually around this time to April one... it just sort of crumbles in the runs.  I think we're teetering with seeing that happen. 

Yesterday I was thinking it may be protracted a bit longer...like 2006 ( I think? ) but, seems I may be forced to back-peddle on that a bit. I was not aware at the time the NAO completely reversed phases from both the CDC and CPC, and that has continued today. The PNA going negative on top...that leaves cold loading and storm sort of dependent upon -EPO when the gradient is weakening and the wave numbers are visibly getting small there and so the correlations are in the process of moving toward less helpful... 

So I don't know...  Might be the last hurrah there.   I'll tell you what... if the PNA does go -2 SD and the NAO flips positive, that modest -EPO could drop a closed cold low into the interior W... It may not be on the operational models just yet (though I think I see hints there...) but sometimes those things will show up all at once when there is mass-field support leading.  We'll see... But should that happen, we 80s ... it'd be a redux of the February pattern, only longer and warmer due to the time of year most likely. 

 

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  On 3/15/2018 at 7:24 PM, EastonSN+ said:

WTF is NAVGEM doing. 2 day storm ending as the below.

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All guidance is actually doing something similar. As the first shortwave goes through the meat grinder, the trailing wave pops another low on the leftover baroclinic zone.

As fond as we are of days and days of snow, I'm going to guess that eventually the models pick on (not both) of the waves to focus on.

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