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March or BUST! - Pattern & Model Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

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0z GFS had a very weird solution to next week. Basically has a coastal storm for 84 hrs from the Carolina's to SNE. Looks like it's two separate storms that get stuck under the block and move very slowly. The run was very strange and I'd put my savings on it that it doesn't play out like that but hey, stranger things have happened.

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6 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Are you certain you didnt Receive more snow. Judging by surrounding reports and radar you were near 2'

I might have.  I did not clear my board during the storm, and there was compaction.  I took the one measurement after the whole thing ended. But I am not fancy enough to know how to calculate for compaction.

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7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s where all 3 ensemble camps have it. I think for coastal areas, you want it falling at night if you want to maximize accumulation 

If the temperature is marginal yes.  But if cold air can be tapped, and we can keep it subfreezing it won’t matter.   We demonstrated that Tuesday.   The main thing is rates.   Good rates no problem.  Sub par rates and I don’t want it day or night at ths point.

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2 hours ago, Cold Miser said:

I might have.  I did not clear my board during the storm, and there was compaction.  I took the one measurement after the whole thing ended. But I am not fancy enough to know how to calculate for compaction.

Same with me. I do it old school by measuring on the ground WO snowboard. 

Figured what matters is what is sitting on the ground, and probably what people did in the years of our ancestors.

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We're finally in sensitivity range. Big spread in the GEFS northeast of the low.

Unfortunately a coherent signal is still about 72 hours away. But we're looking for the heights to be a little higher in the NW Atlantic (still going to be in cyclonic flow, but we don't want it too deep), and a deeper shortwave. 

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10 hours ago, Cold Miser said:

Nope.  This is still nothing like the epic February from a few years back.

Had all 3 of them hit with the ferocity that they could have in a winter-time way...it'd be getting close.  But the first one was a huge rainer, and this most recent one Tuesday was pedestrian for a lot of folks in Central areas of CT/Mass, so those two things kept this from being a truly exceptional time for some of us.

 

Hoping for one last good one for my area...at 60"(normal is 48" here) for the year..and to honest I didn't think a few weeks ago I had a shot at 50" let alone 60".   So a pretty decent year overall here in the snow dept.  One more good hit would definitely bring this winter much higher in regard for me/my area...we'll see????

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