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March or BUST! - Pattern & Model Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

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18 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

maybe one more chance at a good storm, remember for some of us yesterday we might have been in Tulsa OK

Yesterday was like seeing all your friends go home with VS models and you're stuck with a girl that reminds you vaguely of Steve Buscemi.

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Could use a break! These past few storms have done enough ready for spring Clem up and there is going to be a lot in this area. Have three pine limbs dangling on my power lines (can't believe they held) several others and some whole trees down in the hood again. Looking at the forecast winds look to not subside much over the next few days. To be honest as much as I love snow hope this one goes OTS.

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21 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

maybe one more chance at a good storm, remember for some of us yesterday we might have been in Tulsa OK

west to east mover through the OV is usually good here, like the Superbowl 2015 storm, but climo and the close pass argue for BL issues IMO.  Elevation event.   And that's with a 00z euro or GFS like track.  HP ok but not great for bleed.  

New euro might phase too quickly, we'll see in a second.  Then would all be a moot point.

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1 minute ago, radarman said:

west to east mover through the OV is usually good here, like the Superbowl 2015 storm, but climo and the close pass argue for BL issues IMO.  Elevation event.   And that's with a 00z euro or GFS like track.  HP ok but not great for bleed.  

New euro might phase too quickly, we'll see in a second.  Then would all be a moot point.

Nah, SLP is going to track further south this run, Northern stream s/w is weaker.

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1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Euro looking good at 12z Tues.  Storm looks to be re-developing off the Delmarva.  Nice H to the north.

I forgot about the time change... First day back at work since it changed.  I was sick Monday and Tuesday was a snow day.  I was used to seeing Euro pbp after my students left.

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Seems fine for SNE

Euro advects a lot of warmer air int he midlevels ahead of the system...so it becomes problematic, esp south of pike. That is verbatim on this run. It obviously doesn't matter much being 6 days out, but that is not something we'd want to see going forward.

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11 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Close enough to warrant tracking, even for the coast. As it stands, too warm south of pike but easily correctable this far out

Yeah... there are some good things working for the system. A marginal operation run at 6 days shouldn’t really sway anyone. Has the look of an event that could produce. 

CMC and ICON showed that.

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro advects a lot of warmer air int he midlevels ahead of the system...so it becomes problematic, esp south of pike. That is verbatim on this run. It obviously doesn't matter much being 6 days out, but that is not something we'd want to see going forward.

Nothing wrong with a late season icestorm either , though with a redevelopment and the cold HP,, you’d lean colder profile to the coast 

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro advects a lot of warmer air int he midlevels ahead of the system...so it becomes problematic, esp south of pike. That is verbatim on this run. It obviously doesn't matter much being 6 days out, but that is not something we'd want to see going forward.

LOL, those snow graphics look awful when compared to the upper levels.

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Right over the benchmark. 850/925 profiles below freezing throughout for ORH, KTOLL, probably not so good on coast and in the valley south of Northampton, but if they might score double digits.

How do I know this? Magic. Could happen. Might not/probably not. Other than telling us a storm might be coming it seems like playing with the models this far out isn't much better than intelligent wishcasting.

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Still early, but here are furthest extent N of 850 and 925 temps, and snow accum.  Still a good hit in Boston area despite some rain.  Snow accum. in W MA and VT not all from the storm.  Some of that is due to the upcoming snow squalls and general light snow in those areas.

download_model-en-087-0_modez_2018031412download_model-en-087-0_modez_2018031412download_model-en-087-0_modez_2018031412

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From what all of us have learned over the years, met or weather enthusiast, is half the fun is tracking an event and dissecting model runs, days in advance..as long as there's a chance, and it's been showing up for days, last minute corrections can happen... personally, if it's not going to be a blockbuster storm, it can go OTS at this point... like someone said earlier, too bad we didn't have this pattern in the meat of winter...man we'd be talking huge season totals by now...as it stands, I think everyone on the forum is either at or above climo, minus a few..we track...

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Nother storm... .nother series of headaches.

a ... this Euro run's whole deep layer wave structure is gliding over top of a SE ridge that's begin to re-assert (or assert anew).  You can tell by that cupped impression ...But anyway, that's important because the model appears to intake a small amount of N-stream mechanics...which stops the in situ structure from shearing as much, but ... it's similar to a rock skipping of a pond in that look and the thing can't get under LI ... 

b ... hence the rain to the Pike vibe there... 

c ... that were to pass under LI, that would be quite frustrating to most of the hoi polloi ..heh

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