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March or BUST! - Pattern & Model Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

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11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Unfortunately these are high risk trees over the house that require precision removal in very tight spots.

My total bill for tree removal over the last few years in Saugerties must be at 3k+. Wipeout of all the ash trees by the Emerald Ash Borer and a bonanza for the tree removal guys.

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The Pacific is transmitting a new signal downstream across N/A post this week's festivities...

The wild card (in my estimation...) lies in the NAO - and "lies" may turn out to be a pun.  Though the index certainly relaxes in the GEFs -based field calculations, it's not clear that it truly goes away. That "tendency" ... shows up as modestly negative values out through day 10, at both the CDC and CPC.  It matters because ...this particular west-based NAO has, to date, not been an interference factor like so many in the past have proven.  It's hauled up and stopped pretty much in the perfect retrograde location to effect storm track as not being a suppressed one. 

It appears also:  it either continues to retrograde at a favorable latitude ... continued at a non-destructive wave interference distance, or, perhaps the entire ring around the hemisphere long about the 55th or 60th parallels is still reeling from the SSW last month, along with a continued -AO phase state.  The reason I wonder the latter is because really...the NAO domain seems to really go almost 0 SD but a new blocking node is prevalent in a lot of guidance' sources...farther west over midriff Canada/N JB ...  Either way, those spring enthusiasts/warm up seekers among us, perhaps need other hobbies for the next bit of while here. 

The storm in D8-10 on the 00z Euro was joined spectacularly well by the 06z GFS, and now also the 12z version of the latter is not terrible in that regard either, but that storm is of different ilk and origin compared to the present one slated to unleash along the upper MA/NE regions. This present one is the last in the trifecta of them that began back March 1 with the CF event, ..the last with the grid failure...now this, which appears less a CF and more a wind and deep snow result (so far and tentatively..).   These three were pretty much anchor jobs by a favorably placed, west based NAO taking place during a 10 day steady rising PNA...  Two circumstances that have evaporated come this time next weekend ... but, as said ...with blocking tendencies continuing albeit displaced farther west into the Canadian shield, along with a -PNA developing up underneath... We end up with more flat wave progressive storm types occurring in a continuation of a colder than normal pattern.

 

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The Pacific is transmitting a new signal downstream across N/A post this week's festivities...

The wild card (in my estimation...) lies in the NAO - and "lies" may turn out to be a pun.  Though the index certainly relaxes in the GEFs -based field calculations, it's not clear that it truly goes away. That "tendency" ... shows up as modestly negative values out through day 10, at both the CDC and CPC.  It matters because ...this particular west-based NAO has, to date, not been an interference factor like so many in the past have proven.  It's hauled up and stopped pretty much in the perfect retrograde location to effect storm track as not being a suppressed one. 

It appears also:  it either continues to retrograde at a favorable latitude ... continued at a non-destructive wave interference distance, or, perhaps the entire ring around the hemisphere long about the 55th or 60th parallels is still reeling from the SSW last month, along with a continued -AO phase state.  The reason I wonder the latter is because really...the NAO domain seems to really go almost 0 SD but a new blocking node is prevalent in a lot of guidance' sources...farther west over midriff Canada/N JB ...  Either way, those spring enthusiasts/warm up seekers among us, perhaps need other hobbies for the next bit of while here. 

The storm in D8-10 on the 00z Euro was joined spectacularly well by the 06z GFS, and now also the 12z version of the latter is not terrible in that regard either, but that storm is of different ilk and origin compared to the present one slated to unleash along the upper MA/NE regions. This present one is the last in the trifecta of them that began back March 1 with the CF event, ..the last with the grid failure...now this, which appears less a CF and more a wind and deep snow result (so far and tentatively..).   These three were pretty much anchor jobs by a favorably placed, west based NAO taking place during a 10 day steady rising PNA...  Two circumstances that have evaporated come this time next weekend ... but, as said ...with blocking tendencies continuing albeit displaced farther west into the Canadian shield, along with a -PNA developing up underneath... We end up with more flat wave progressive storm types occurring in a continuation of a colder than normal pattern.

 

Tip, I enjoy your post as always, along with the many "regulars" that post as well.......can i ask one thing? You stated the three events, #3 is next in line if i am correct, were all because of a "west based NAO of the past 10 days...do you mean a "-NAO"?

 

Philip

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6 minutes ago, 512high said:

Tip, I enjoy your post as always, along with the many "regulars" that post as well.......can i ask one thing? You stated the three events, #3 is next in line if i am correct, were all because of a "west based NAO of the past 10 days...do you mean a "-NAO"?

Philip

Yup...  The even Tuesday is #3 ...

West based NAO referring to where the positive height anomaly is anchored (-NAO)

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10 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

2 weeks ago I mentioned 5 chances of storms  still thinking 2 left after Tuesday

So far (if somehow space aliens take control of our weather pushing tomorrow's storm 200 miles to the east) you will be 3 for 3.

54 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Next Thursday looks like next one.

Also, mild up this weekend basically disappeared with boundary to our south

Next as in the 22nd?

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Pretty funny.....one year ago tomorrow ..... just reuse the same AFD    :snowing:

 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1054 AM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A major winter storm will impact the region Tuesday into Tuesday
night with heavy snow, strong winds, and possible coastal
flooding. The snow will likely change to rain near the coast.
Blizzard conditions are possible along and just west of the I-95
corridor. Blustery Thursday, then fair and cold Friday as high
pressure builds in. Another round of unsettled weather is
possible during the weekend, currently favoring Sunday.

 

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

Highlights on Major Winter Storm Tuesday:

* High confidence in 12-18" of snow west of I-95 corridor with
  locally up to 2 ft

* Less snowfall southern RI and southeast MA due to potential
  changeover to rain

* Damaging winds along the coast

* Blizzard conditions possible along and just west of I-95
  corridor
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2 hours ago, TheBudMan said:

 

Pretty funny.....one year ago tomorrow ..... just reuse the same AFD    :snowing:

 


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1054 AM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A major winter storm will impact the region Tuesday into Tuesday
night with heavy snow, strong winds, and possible coastal
flooding. The snow will likely change to rain near the coast.
Blizzard conditions are possible along and just west of the I-95
corridor. Blustery Thursday, then fair and cold Friday as high
pressure builds in. Another round of unsettled weather is
possible during the weekend, currently favoring Sunday.

 


.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

Highlights on Major Winter Storm Tuesday:

* High confidence in 12-18" of snow west of I-95 corridor with
  locally up to 2 ft

* Less snowfall southern RI and southeast MA due to potential
  changeover to rain

* Damaging winds along the coast

* Blizzard conditions possible along and just west of I-95
  corridor

Wow, good find!

 

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