RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Big hit incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 This will be good. Srn vort is sharper. Not a phase, but gets pulled up east side of nrn stream s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Oh boy oh boy oh boy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Writing to the general reader here ... a "straw-man argument" Those bold words above are about all this system has in support, which is typically a signal that many have trouble wrapping their heads around in lieu of actually seeing a stem-wound beauty of a cyclone on the charts. However, one way or the other, the teleconnections win. Sorry ... I don't personally feel very comfortable using the UKMET as a deterministic fall-back at any time ( it does have support as suggested below). These teleconnector curves and/or numbers ...they are not just numbers that we associated to certain meanings ... They actually are, for all intents and operations, reflecting mass distribution - literally... For example, if the NAO numbers are "down", there must by physical law be counter-balancing regions of mass that either alone or in the aggregate sum up to equal and opposite amount of "up." Simple precept: Mass is neither lost or destroyed in the ongoing maelstrom of the planetary system's circulation. Understanding that probably provides also the seeds to understanding what is meant by a "corrective event." ...If one of these indexes, say the PNA were to enter a period of time where the numbers are changing ...that means that the counter-balancing mass fields to the PNA (usually internally, around the edges, or nearby adjacently) will also then forced to enter a period(s) of adjustment. If a static synoptic atmosphere, conditions enter a calm state, but when perturbed by said forcing ... that "disturbs" said rested state = coastal ..or tornado...or whatever. That's at the root of it all really... at all scales for that matter. The sun heats the air mass over the interior land regions on a summer day until it becomes buoyant; that air starts to rise (that's akin to a teleconnector entering a phase change); the rising air instantiates a surface return flow of cooler stable oceanic boundary layer air to replace it. This response/balancing mechanism cools the coast. Thus, one would say, 'there is teleconnection that signals cooling on the coast' with the onset of a sea breeze. One regions mass was perturbed, and the a conjoining region was forced to change. We just don't label teleconnections for all scales, intents or purposes in that manner. Where we do is at the grander scope of hemispheric Meteorology... If the PNA is forced to significantly alter its phase state ... there is a teleconnection over N/A accordingly. So ..the reason I am going through all this is because we may very well not receive a meaningful impact event this week, despite the PNA change ... despite all this arguing for a 'corrective event'. However, there is a storm system that is going to evolve - that much is clear, and much to perhaps the chagrin of the hopefuls. Don't conflate missing out on a storm/disappointment therein, as some sort of failure in all this. We are not defeating the physical laws of mass distribution in the atmosphere when one is not happy with the outcome. It may seem obvious or silly to say.. .but, I've often read disgruntled people try to blame teleconnector adherence as some sort of set up for their misfortune, when it was the ...channeling of model cinema and/or storms for their happiness that was the real problem. There's also a question of thresholds, too. A region can be perturbed, but not enough. In this situation, however, I'd estimate changing the PNA from - 3 SD to +1.5 is probably enough, and well .. every GEFs member has 'some' kind of storm.. Again, impacting NE is not really a physical prerequisite for satisfying the above theoretical application. Just remember ... the "boxing day storm" ... that one was flattened down to pancake wave status ...and didn't come back until it was 36 hours out. T You did so well, and then you dropped that, and that is all the weenies will run away with..."Tip thinks the Boxing Day Storm is an analog. It's coming!!!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Here we go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Oh boy. 3 oh boys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Tip started a thread, let's get it pinned please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 That’s 6-12 for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: That’s 6-12 for many. 6-12 is oh boy oh boy oh boy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 GFS is one tick away from a blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Nice to see...but it’s the GFS...hasn’t been stellar We will see what it’s more skilled friends from across the pond think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Maybe this is one more example of the models having a big storm seven or eight days out losing it for a couple days and then coming back later. Most of the mets seemed to be hedging towards a bigger event the last few days Despite the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Canadian still ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: You did so well, and then you dropped that, and that is all the weenies will run away with..."Tip thinks the Boxing Day Storm is an analog. It's coming!!!" Lol... fair enough... I consider myself warned of the water surging out to sea what comes next - a tsunamis of blame and resentment... Actually, anecdotally ...that system was pedestrian along Rt 2 where I was at the time... That region of Massachusetts seemed to end up in the nadir region of a kind of "bow gravity wave", ...like the stationary wave cast by boat? (Analog). Anyway, that was nearly stationary in the height of the storm... and it imparted enough DVM to reduce totals. We ended up with 3-5" of sintered cryo dust in frigid gelid tree whirring wind gusts. Meanwhile, folks to the south by mere 10 miles + were throwing snow in the air like a 2004 Patriots game meets with winter storm trophy ceremony. What was interesting about that, the model runs before hand had a distinct "notch" of lower QPF charted for this region. A met buddy and I dismissed it as model noise ...couldn't see any precise reason that had to be there. But...there we were...he was in Fitchburg ... I was in Ayer... neighboring towns for all intents and purposes. Neither one of us took home anything remotely memorable relative to our region's climate zone - Anyway, I don't mean to really compare this to the Boxing day storm? In fact, I haven't even looked back at the synoptics/made any such comparisons.. .None. I merely meant to say, "storms can correctly a lot in short order." Even in this day and age of conceit with modeling/technology advances, that is still true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Quote QPF is too light on that 12z GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Please , trees like this next door all over. Going to cost me 2800 to remove 7 massive damaged Oaks and Maples Darn good price, especially at this time. You must have connections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 26 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Maybe this is one more example of the models having a big storm seven or eight days out losing it for a couple days and then coming back later. Most of the mets seemed to be hedging towards a bigger event the last few days Despite the models. Usually when Dave Tolleris says no chance or no way, it happens. Before Wed storm he berated weenies for thinking anything more than a foot was possible, especially not 2 feet (not talking 3k elevation in Vermont). He said in Jan 2016 no way big snows north of philly. Jan 15 he said no way euro is wrong with philly to nyc hecs. And now, for days he has said no way this is a nyc to boston snows. Forecasting in absolute certainy rarely works. So with that said.... no effin way, zero chance, this will be a big storm for west of the river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 4 minutes ago, CTWeatherFreak said: That seems reasonable and likely to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: That seems reasonable and likely to happen Jeez.. 974 right on the benchmark; if that isnt a weenies dream, I dont know what is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Let's go 75 miles west. 3 minutes ago, CTWeatherFreak said: Jeez.. 974 right on the benchmark; if that isnt a weenies dream, I dont know what is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Usually when Dave Tolleris says no chance or no way, it happens. Before Wed storm he berated weenies for thinking anything more than a foot was possible, especially not 2 feet (not talking 3k elevation in Vermont). He said in Jan 2016 no way big snows north of philly. Jan 15 he said no way euro is wrong with philly to nyc hecs. And now, for days he has said no way this is a nyc to boston snows. Forecasting in absolute certainy rarely works. So with that said.... no effin way, zero chance, this will be a big storm for west of the river. I meant to ask him why he was so certain that it wouldn't get up here....silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Looked like you would get some yesterday when we talked, nice There is a tree guy, not far from me just over the canal that has a business where all he and his guys do is take down trees. They don'tremove the tree from your property, but they cut them into pieces small enough for the homeowner to remove. I believe they do it for $50 a tree if you have a group of trees that need to come down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I meant to ask him why he was so certain that it wouldn't get up here....silly. He's always certain.. Back in WW days, he used to harp on the 'Weekend Rule' being certain; actually used it to forecast.. How'd that work out recently?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Ukmet went back east at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I meant to ask him why he was so certain that it wouldn't get up here....silly. I saw his podcast, he mentioned 2 factors: the strong 50/50 and the northern stream squashing/kicking the southern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Like clockwork as soon as the low begins to go deeper on the guidance the UKMET shifts further east. It seems it has an auto easy adjustment for anything once it’s undergoing rapid deepening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Aside from a warm up near St Patty's Day (great day for a warm up BTW), it looks rather stormy in the extended. That's a fun look IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 55 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: There is a tree guy, not far from me just over the canal that has a business where all he and his guys do is take down trees. They don'tremove the tree from your property, but they cut them into pieces small enough for the homeowner to remove. I believe they do it for $50 a tree if you have a group of trees that need to come down. Unfortunately these are high risk trees over the house that require precision removal in very tight spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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