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March or BUST! - Pattern & Model Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

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20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Another close call. Seen a lot of that. You can see the potential but the tight window doesn't give much room for error. 

it's starting to look like the January southern stream bomb ...  where the N/stream more than less dictates the track of the deep layer entity more so than actually phases. 

Regardless of degree of phasing and that junk ... this does do a similar antic of deepening madly at unusual southern latitudes.  Folks may or may not recall a lot of consternation over the actual pressure depth being reached at those early latitudes, as to the modeling back prior to that January blizzard, and well ... it certainly verified deeply. 

This is similar ... perhaps even synoptically to that.  fascinating.

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Okay ...so there's enough difference here to be more on the poor side of a total analog ... for one, the surrounding medium back in January was still being plagued by very fast flow and effectively 'too much of a good thing' with deep cold heights so deep that the surrounding balanced flow was utterly screaming in rage ...

It's really more the behavior in this run of early and fast development rate alone, if perhaps coming to pass by coincidence. 

One thing I am noticing here over all, regardless of model actually ... the issue is that there is a wave-frequency problem between the N/stream and S/streams.  The S/stream is moving too fast ...out -pacing the N/stream, which can't thusly phase.  It's like ... a comet orbiting the sun:  a pure phase is the comet crashing into the sun (pure N/stream subsume); a near miss phase or failures altogether are accelerating close passes, where in this case (completing the metaphor) the object (S/stream impulse) is sling shot around the N/stream gravity well...  interesting.

This is just observationally what appears to be happening for me. I don't know if this correctable ... or whatever, but.. the southern stream impulse is definitely outpacing the N/stream even in this more prodigious impact 12z NAM idea ... There is in fact only partial phasing in the sense that the N/stream is helping to dictate the track of the S/stream system, but it's really not capturing it at all. (Edit - the correction may come from correctly anticipating the western N/A ridge ironically) A more robust complexion with that would transitively influence the flow between 100 and 70 W longitudes over mid latitudes...effectively slowing it and everything in it, down..thus, allowing the diving N/stream to do it's magic... ).

The reason I am laboring the point is because ...that I suspect in this situation is really key to this event being sort of like what this solution has ... more or less, versus something much more serious.  I have a funny feeling ... don't shoot me, but I suspect this Euro run is going to be more substantial here.  Just a hunch -

Other than these points, the only real difference between the 06z and the 12z NAM runs is that the southern stream impulse is somewhere between 200 and 300 miles farther alone in longitude comparative. That's a big deal?  because the prior run being back west means that it is more so in destructive wave interference with the N/stream, which come hell or high water is coming down - that much is lock-step keyed into the +PNA spike well advertised to date.  We ain't gettin' outta dat much-a dis.  The repositioning of that little amount goes from destructive to modest constructive interference there. 

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6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Other than these points, the only real difference between the 06z and the 12z NAM runs is that the southern stream impulse is somewhere between 200 and 300 miles farther alone in longitude comparative. That's a big deal?  because the prior run being back west means that it is more so in destructive wave interference with the N/stream, which come hell or high water is coming down - that much is lock-step keyed into the +PNA spike well advertised to date.  We ain't gettin' outta dat much-a dis.  The repositioning of that little amount goes from destructive to modest constructive interference there. 

Yeah, it was really close to getting out ahead of the northern stream so the northern stream can dig behind it and allow it to turn up the coast. Not much more needed from that depiction. 

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