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March or BUST! - Pattern & Model Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

St P ... really? 

I would have thunk it's the run up to max PNA that offers the best correction ... not so much on the descent.  17th seems a bit late on that evolution, but I suppose technically it is a phase change with a major mass domain space so...  

I think the NAO is kind of a wild card.  

You may be right, I just glanced over the teleconnections. 

Didn't even look at models.

Obviously if the PNA decays too quickly, its at the very least a latitude dependent degree of impact.

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25 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

actually...  that azzhole secretly thinks that many of the return site-hobbyists and devoted followers are in fact neurotically dependent upon the model cinema of snow storms, in some sort of weird trigger for serotonin regulation (feelings of joy) ...versus thus allowing these tools to drill them to melancholy.   You can see/sense it in the tonality and flavor of posting content... Anyway, playing along, he finds model runs that will suffice what it is people want to see.   

In the last three events, the JMA happens to be of that complexion.  I assure you ...when it starts pooping in the punch y'all drink ... I'll stop serving you cups of it.

sheesh, you ain’t got to be all mean about it. He may be an uber weenie but an ahole.....I draw the line in the sand there. Them fighting words. 

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no what's interesting about this run...  I bet folks are focused on that arc of super heavy QPF curvi-linearly taunting E out around 96 hours but ... on whole that probably has a deformation band over us as opposed to over eastern NY - 

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1 minute ago, dryslot said:

That's a flag that this is coming west to me.

Yeah... we've seen that before.  It's kind of like betraying where there is better deep layer mechanical forcing is.  Then, as we get closer, the system may shed the focus on the convective or convective related sequencing/latent heat release with the further east low and ends up west.  How do we know which is which though.  some times Norluns are what we get -  

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