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March or BUST! - Pattern & Model Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

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7 minutes ago, Hoth said:

EPS is pretty hot. This would be a Miller A, correct? Those tend to come in amped.

Yeah def a miller A.

They don't have to come in amped...remember Jan 2016? Or Feb 2010?

 

But yeah, they do seem to want to bump north very frequently up until game time...whereas the miller Bs tend to come north and then love to go east late in the game.

 

This one would be perfect if the southern stream slows just a bit and/or the northern stream comes in further west....that would fix our "trough too far east" issue.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah def a miller A.

They don't have to come in amped...remember Jan 2016? Or Feb 2010?

 

But yeah, they do seem to want to bump north very frequently up until game time...whereas the miller Bs tend to come north and then love to go east late in the game.

 

This one would be perfect if the southern stream slows just a bit and/or the northern stream comes in further west....that would fix our "trough too far east" issue.

Thanks. I try to blot those storms from my memory, although both had significant issues with confluence and s***streaks if memory serves. '16 actually wound up coming a bit north at the last minute. Not enough to rock the region, but I think Boston picked up 6 or 8 while Ray sniffed cirrus. I just think of A's as having a lot of latent heat release, which the models don't always handle well, hence the last minute corrections.

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38 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Is he busy writing the next paragraph? been quiet this winter.

Screen play is complete...Michael Bay is on board to direct it.  The Lion From the North (polar vortex)  will bring temperatures to cape cod that will turn the bay into block of ice, killing most of the fish. There is a guarantee of no less than 10 Bomb Cyclones to "bomb out" just off the Coast within a 3 week period with the 10th being an extinction level event.  

28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Potential biggest of the 3. Archambeault event phase changer. This might be one to remember 

lol!!!

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26 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

So glad they are putting the NAM out to pasture. Such a bad model.

I don't think they really are.... 

As Chris (Oceanwx) was mentioning the other day when he and I were musing the GFS BL issues, they are actually foregoing upgrades to it, nor the GFS because they are putting all their eggs into integrating the two of them into a bigger more cohesive total product suite - at least that's how I took it.  If that's true, the 'essence' (if you will) of either will be a part of that.

Right off the bat .. the incisive sardonic asked whether that fusion of essences includes the general stinky piece of schitness so lovingly endemic to either ... Perhaps it's like the miracle of sex in biology; the process is supposed to filter out 'bad genes' such that a refined product serves onto evolution kindly - heh

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They could always throw in the towel and try to join the ECMWF consortium. LOL

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't think they really area.... 

As Chris (Oceanwx) was mentioning the other day when he and I were musing the GFS BL issues, they are actually foregoing upgrades to either it, nor the GFS because they are putting all their eggs into integrating the two of them into a bigger more cohesive total product suite - at least that's how I took it.  If that's true, the 'essence' (if you will) of either will be a part of that.

Right off the bat .. the incisive sardonic asked whether that fusion of essences includes the general stinky piece of schitness so lovingly endemic to either ... Perhaps it's like the miracle of sex in biology; the process is supposed to filter out 'bad genes' such that a refined product serves onto evolution kindly - heh

 

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2 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Question:  Are we allowed to post WeatherBell Maps?  I see people posting WeatherModel Maps.  What's the deal here. 

Wanted to show the significant trend the EPS has made over last 4-5 runs.

He probably shouldn't be posting the premium weather.us maps, only the freebie ones.

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3 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Question:  Are we allowed to post WeatherBell Maps?  I see people posting WeatherModel Maps.  What's the deal here. 

Wanted to show the significant trend the EPS has made over last 4-5 runs.

Don't ask don't tell.  There's been a lot of maps posted all winter long.  Now that you asked they'll probably disappear lol.

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3 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Question:  Are we allowed to post WeatherBell Maps?  I see people posting WeatherModel Maps.  What's the deal here. 

Wanted to show the significant trend the EPS has made over last 4-5 runs.

Weather bell...no

Weather.us/weathermodels.com...yes

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Generally when I have tried to post Weatherbell maps (on other BB's), only Weatherbell subscribers can see them if the original link is used. That might be ok, but it wouldn't help out non subscribers.

4 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Question:  Are we allowed to post WeatherBell Maps?  I see people posting WeatherModel Maps.  What's the deal here. 

Wanted to show the significant trend the EPS has made over last 4-5 runs.

 

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