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March or BUST! - Pattern & Model Discussion

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It did well in close range but it did poorly on qpf for the deform jacks. But i guess deform bands are not its bread n butter...which is why I usually take its qpf output lightly. 

qpf is the lowest ranking predictor, it showed 2 deform bands though

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It did well in close range but it did poorly on qpf for the deform jacks. But i guess deform bands are not its bread n butter...which is why I usually take its qpf output lightly. 

Nailed the precip here pretty much, Several runs between 14-18" and we ended up with 14", GFS had 8", It missed the banding.

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

qpf is the lowest ranking predictor, it showed 2 deform bands though

 When Kevin sets up next years snow table I may ask him to do a separate one for liquid equivalent for those of us who want to take the time.  I think that would be really interesting if we could get a bunch of us on board.

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Nailed the precip here pretty much, Several runs between 14-18" and we ended up with 14", GFS had 8", It missed the banding.

I dont bother with gfs qpf and snow maps in big systems. Just look at mid level track. I weighed rgem and hrdps heavy regarding possible banding and best snows with UK/euro track. It worked out well for family and friends in NJ but I may have lost Hippy’s subscription.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I dont bother with gfs qpf and snow maps in big systems. Just look at mid level track. I weighed rgem and hrdps heavy regarding possible banding and best snows with UK/euro track. It worked out well for family and friends in NJ but I may have lost Hippy’s subscription.

RGEM was no good either, Paltry.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Here's some talking head points about Monday-Tuesday 13th-14th...

..  the GEF's version of the teleconnectors are still heavily in favor of some kind of a deep eastern N/A, middle latitude corrective event.  This is in part instructed by the very robust, on the order of some four total standard deviation modality, change between present PNA  ... reaching an apex perhaps on that same Tuesday or perhaps Wednesday.  

..  a common bias I have noted over the years, particularly when the GEFs show a fairly tight clustering/concerted agreement for a mode change, the party player synoptic features don't always arrive in the operational versions in a timely fashion... a demonstrated hesitation to change.  I would not be shocked if we are merely not seeing the more amplified PNAP construct, such that the index prognostics suggest is possible.  In which case, the "correct vector" is pointed toward more amplitude in that time frame, when/if relying upon the GEFs cluster.  If this correction were to take place over the weekend, then you would likely see rather abrupt and more aggressive N-stream insert ...during a pattern that very much is still in favor of subsume phasing scenarios..

.. which brings me to the NAO... I am noticing that it's tending to be an emergent phase state more so than one that is consistently modeled.  The outer edge of the distant prognostic range keeps having to correct the index down nightly... such that it never actually is really rising.  NCEP noted this today as well in their ext range discussion, so I know I'm not imagining that.  That said, I don't believe that -1 to -1.5 SD is really enough to drive the storm track that as far south as the Euro cluster (necessarily .. though it could happen...sure).  

.. the EPS teleconnector numbers, I don't get to see. I usually just gather a semblance of where the forcing is by observing the planetary wave spacing, ..which is essentially the same thing.  Those presently appear to have room for something more than the operational at 12z.  I'd like to note, the 00z trend back toward interest, and this 12z went away... There in is subtle suggestion there of lacking stability re that particular interval of time. This is also true with the GFS... it's just that the GFS' instability/continuity is more on the left/impact track variation, where the Euro seems to have trouble (12z in particular) deciding which package of mechanics to really focus on... Fact of the matter is, the Euro actually nearly bombs the coast out there around D8 on that run. 

.. many individual GEfs members were extraordinarily amplified in the 00z and 12z run this morning, some taking a -4 or -5 SD negative cold mid level anomaly quintessentially under LI in such a way as to suggest an important event could not be avoided. What is intriguing... some of those look a lot like this Euro run ;)

.. it is noted that most EPS members do not ... save for one or two outliers... However, a important aspect I have noticed about the EPS members is that they tend to mirror the operational version a bit too much to comfortably be called "perturbed" members - which is the central philosophy of running 'variant' versions in the first place, to test different plausible outcomes.  For that, I am not sure having the EPS mean so suppressed is necessarily telling at 5 days of lead.  00z run tonight might go some distance the other direction, but if there is a 'major' correction, I suspect it will actually be in the 12z run tomorrow...  

 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I dont bother with gfs qpf and snow maps in big systems. Just look at mid level track. I weighed rgem and hrdps heavy regarding possible banding and best snows with UK/euro track. It worked out well for family and friends in NJ but I may have lost Hippy’s subscription.

HRDPS did really well in this system.  It nailed the deform band in SVT/ENY/Berks and then did well in CT and Mass.  

That model was the closest up here too once inside its 48 hour range with the QPF.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah that model has really struggled this winter.  At least withbthe NAM you sort of know what to expect.  RGEM was terrible in this event.

Yeah, It had no more then .6-.8" qpf here which was less the half, The Euro/Nam hit it.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

I'm assuming it's also some group think with the 18z GFS going north as well?

It had a little more northern s/w involvement sooner on that run where at 12z, There was none and actually acted as a kicker to the southern stream s/w, We are going to want to see more interaction with both streams if this one has a chance for the Northeast.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Pretty good from NJ to WCT but I lost track what it did afterwards lol. I do recall it being way too light after it crapped its load down here which is why I found the hrdps very good from regionwide standpoint. 

Never looked at the HRDPS, I have in the past but it never stood out to me on a few systems.

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Never looked at the HRDPS, I have in the past but it never stood out to me on a few systems.

obv snow maps are always off and this had an elevation component, coastal swct was below 12”, but most runs like this hinted at EPA northeast to Maine. It never bought the warm/idea either. 

hrdps_asnow_neus_48.png

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

obv snow maps are always off and this had an elevation component, coastal swct was below 12”, but most runs like this hinted at EPA northeast to Maine. It never bought the warm/idea either. 

hrdps_asnow_neus_48.png

After looking thru the PNS reports here, That wasn't to bad actually, Little light in southern maine but overall, Not bad.

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tavwtby

tavwtby

Posted
Posted
Just now, dryslot said:

After looking thru the PNS reports here, That wasn't to bad actually, Little light in southern maine but overall, Not bad.

I was going to say the same thing, except it sh#t the bed further north with that band, but some parts of Fairfield county and southern Litchfield county got 20+..

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