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March or BUST! - Pattern & Model Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

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That northern stream energy diving down from Hudson Bay is still out over the Aluetians.  So plenty of time to correct.  I do believe that we're going to need that energy to approach with more longitude to it.  It's approaching with such a sharp angle from the NW that its more kicking the southern energy out instead of catching it from behind and capturing it.

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Just now, JC-CT said:

Just commenting on run to run differences. 6z was better for you too, no?

To be quite honest, I thought the 12z run looked better than the 06z run.  Not even looking at the surface representation, purely 5h.  I also agree with CR12s comment that longitudinally will help with that ULL coming out of Ontario.  We're not talking much here, verbatim to make this a solid storm for alot.

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10 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

That northern stream energy diving down from Hudson Bay is still out over the Aluetians.  So plenty of time to correct.  I do believe that we're going to need that energy to approach with more longitude to it.  It's approaching with such a sharp angle from the NW that its more kicking the southern energy out instead of catching it from behind and capturing it.

Yeah, Its not in an area where it can be sampled so we have time for improvements, If we can get that to drop south and do a phase/capture, This is going to end up being a slow mover if we can get it along the coast, Were not that far off as Northern Maine keeps getting this curl back towards there almost every run,

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3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

To be quite honest, I thought the 12z run looked better than the 06z run.  Not even looking at the surface representation, purely 5h.  I also agree with CR12s comment that longitudinally will help with that ULL coming out of Ontario.  We're not talking much here, verbatim to make this a solid storm for alot.

It won't take much really to get this back west especially for eastern areas.

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