Hazey Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Long range is vomit worthy. Yuck. Figured this spring would blow since we had a easy winter. Fingers crossed it changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Waiting until Saturday to get invested, but I feel like this one is happening. It may be the coast's turn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 No spring as far as eye can see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 The year without a summer redux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, PeabodyFlood said: The year without a summer redux Nao keeps reloaded in the long range I do think we will have a hot summer but spring looks terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Has anyone looked at CIPS analogs at 96 and 120 hours? There are some doozy's on that list 2/11/83, 2/6/10, 3/13/93, 2/12/06, 2/9/13, 1/22/14, 1/27/15.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 WPC seems to be conservatively honking. I think we get a slow trend back n and w. It is often the case this season at least that when there are multiple runs of multiple models showing a big storm 7-8 days out which then kinda retreats....that the big solutions come back as we get closer, as long as the overall set-up supports it. I bet that will happen. Although I think the further s and e areas are favored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 11 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: Has anyone looked at CIPS analogs at 96 and 120 hours? There are some doozy's on that list 2/11/83, 2/6/10, 3/13/93, 2/12/06, 2/9/13, 1/22/14, 1/27/15.... Nice hits in there...too bad the CIPS don’t tend to work out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Not feeling this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Nice hits in there...too bad the CIPS don’t tend to work out... They are not good and i don't use them, No two storms are alike, Even in similar patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 So does yesterday's system serve as a 50/50 for this, or is it gone by then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said: WPC seems to be conservatively honking. I think we get a slow trend back n and w. It is often the case this season at least that when there are multiple runs of multiple models showing a big storm 7-8 days out which then kinda retreats....that the big solutions come back as we get closer, as long as the overall set-up supports it. I bet that will happen. Although I think the further s and e areas are favored. The persistence of Atlantic ridging has helped us in that regard this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 hour ago, weatherlogix said: Has anyone looked at CIPS analogs at 96 and 120 hours? There are some doozy's on that list 2/11/83, 2/6/10, 3/13/93, 2/12/06, 2/9/13, 1/22/14, 1/27/15.... So a nemo juno hybrid, got it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 hour ago, Bostonseminole said: Not feeling this one . There’s no way that is coming even to my neck of the woods if the 500 panel on the 84 hour NAM is right. There are basically two ULLs. One by SE Canada and the other in western Ontario that won’t allow that system to come close. I said yesterday this is either a total miss where even DCA gets missed or it comes way north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Fwiw nam looks like it would be ots at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: There’s no way that is coming even to my neck of the woods if the 500 panel on the 84 hour NAM is right. There are basically two ULLs. One by SE Canada and the other in western Ontario that won’t allow that system to come close. I said yesterday this is either a total miss where even DCA gets missed or it comes way north i was just going to ask someone to extrapolate the 12Z NAM, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said: i was just going to ask someone to extrapolate the 12Z NAM, thanks. ERN LI and SE Mass, probably the Cape and Islands would have a shot in that setup as inevitably even if the H5 setup is right at 84 there is probably some tendency to overdo the ULL off Canada. So SOME NW trend probably happens there but that’s a ton of work to do to get NYC/BDL/ORH/BOS in on anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: ERN LI and SE Mass, probably the Cape and Islands would have a shot in that setup as inevitably even if the H5 setup is right at 84 there is probably some tendency to overdo the ULL off Canada. So SOME NW trend probably happens there but that’s a ton of work to do to get NYC/BDL/ORH/BOS in on anything Nothing is impossible with the models this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Don't under estimate the power of the weenies. They've willed storms to do their bidding. They can do it again. Getter' done! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Most of these misses still hit DE Maine to almost back to here with the tug back to the NW as reaches this latitude, So it won't take much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 8, 2018 Author Share Posted March 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Most of these misses still hit DE Maine to almost back to here with the tug back to the NW as reaches this latitude, So it won't take much. There does seem to be a hook back to the west. Appears as though there is a piece of energy diving out of Ontario that attempts to phase in with the main s/w that causes this. As it stands right now, I do not see any cutters with the UL pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: There does seem to be a hook back to the west. Appears as though there is a piece of energy diving out of Ontario that attempts to phase in with the main s/w that causes this. As it stands right now, I do not see any cutters with the UL pattern. Need to keep an eye on that to see if that can get that to drop further south and phase in sooner, The GFS run a day or so ago that brought this up the coast captured the SLP and stalled it up over DE Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 ICON will be closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Not by much though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: EPS just nailed this storm. Probs of 6 or greater. It was money . Next ones coming I didn't say the EPS probabilities were all that high though......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Going to need to see some steady changes on modeling as were not that far out on this one, But most of the threats this year have not been a lock from even a 3-4 day stand point, Moreso its been inside day 3 before we start seeing some consensus . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Will this be James March mauler? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 12z GFS will be a tic or so west of the 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 8, 2018 Author Share Posted March 8, 2018 Nice look on the 12z GFS today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Really? I thought it wasn't as good. Less phased and booted instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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