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March or BUST! - Pattern & Model Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

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35 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There's another storm next Thursday. One more after that..then spring

Or maybe one more after that. But definitely then, spring. Probably. Look, spring is coming eventually. That's my call and I'm sticking to it.

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7 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

The Euro just looks awful from a sensible weather perspective. Just awful.

Days and days of self-destructing sun under the multiple ULLs spinning/regenerating near us with prob occasional snow shower spitting.

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that system next week is falling victim in models that are insisting on modulating the +PNA's influence rather a-typically for how it more typically does (climate) downs stream, mid latitudes of N/A.

the Euro really hits at an early April Omega construct with that ridge in the heartland. If you go back some two days ( I guess...) that was not the way the total synoptic evolution was being modeled. 

granted, it was a D9 then...so, you get what you pay for... Still, with the teleconnectors in support of more western ridging - at least transiently - believe it or not, there was more support for that heartland ridge to be back closer to the Rockies than there is now for it's present modeled location - and it's not just the Euro. The GFS is doing this too.  Interesting.

it is possible that spring is just wrapping it's fingers around the throat of winter... much to the chagrin of us winter enthusiasts.  that omega look with the deep heights near off each coasts with the ridge in the middle ...that's a pretty typical spring rest state there.  Which, could also emerge when say ...the models "lose" a signal?  I wouldn't hang up on this next one yet... but, it all does intimate inevitability. 

Got to say though... regardless of all... the GEFs teleconnectors tapping the shoulder of seasonal termination for the ides.  Whatever we get over the next 10 days...that might be it..  The return of -PNA with +EPO and a neutralized NAO with rising AO ... blah blah blah ... and, lest we forget, that hot orb in the sky...  I don't have any idea what the EPS numbers are - 

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