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March or BUST! - Pattern & Model Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

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54 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It is... pretty potently at that... But I was commiserating with Kevina for more like after the ides of the month

I knew that, just adding to your teleconnections point. I am  skiing on vacation in Maine 17th to 26th, bluebird skies and 40s after a couple of dumpers oh baby there's my dancing and prancing 

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3 minutes ago, Siker said:

Euro with 978mb over the Cape on the 12th.

Yeah-ha...just amusing darkly in that other thread how it seems like every third run is an apocalypse these days... 

Course, as Steve and I were discussing a bit ago, this thing has more of a large mass-field correction appeal to it - .... look up H. Archembault... I wonder if her work is still even published to the web.

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7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah-ha...just amusing darkly in that other thread how it seems like every third run is an apocalypse these days... 

Course, as Steve and I were discussing a bit ago, this thing has more of a large mass-field correction appeal to it - .... look up H. Archembault... I wonder if her work is still even published to the web.

She has her own website

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Yeah...with the caveat that the system is still 7-8 days out, the synoptic look supports something very large in that timeframe and probably a much wider area affected. This is one of those system that prob tracks out of northern Alabama over to Cape Hatteras before making the sharper left turn. The vestigial remnants of the NAO block should provide some resistance to make the wintry outcome more favorable than our unmanned firehose track possibilities earlier this winter. 

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... March ...  to think that for many, if things break right this week and then again with that big event next (and it would not take a lot to get either to do so...), a lot of locales would essentially double their seasonal snow totals from where they stand before these two event take place. 

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35 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

... March ...  to think that for many, if things break right this week and then again with that big event next (and it would not take a lot to get either to do so...), a lot of locales would essentially double their seasonal snow totals from where they stand before these two event take place. 

Wasn't that the case in March/April 1997 as well?  One big dog doubled what had previously fallen prior?

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38 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Wasn't that the case in March/April 1997 as well?  One big dog doubled what had previously fallen prior?

1996-1997 was an interesting year for winter enthusiasts... We were off to the races with this beautiful double whack ...almost like the same storm with two chapters, between the 15th and 20th of December '96.  That was the infamous setting where Jim Cantore was standing outside in Worcester when there was a double pulse of lightning followed shortly cacophonic booms ..and he's jumping around unprofessionally giddy with emotion.   The first of the two was an overproducer ... we were supposed to get cat paws and 1-3" in the elevations, but ended up with a solid 6" thumb.  Then, 18 hour lull in calm wind, gray sky with snow grains, and all that sticky snow still clung and gradually froze .. such that when the bigger 9-12" of the two struck with thundersnow intensity the next night, there were quite a bit of power failures in the interior. 

So we're thinking great year... but... not really much happened after the double-whammy.  It was pretty quiet.  Not a lot of cold, but not really really warm.. Some snow threats here and there, but manageable and light.  Then, April 1 came the Fools Day Blizzard and the 20-30" in 15 hours.  

So yeah... that season probably ended up closer to normal or even succeeding that by a little, even though there was lower frequency. 

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1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Better chance of this one slipping east then being more west is my thinking.

Interesting to note that while the OP GFS was flatter than 6z, the GEFS actually have many more tucked members than 6z. Some ridiculous ones peppered in there, it looks like.

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Just now, JC-CT said:

Interesting to note that while the OP GFS was flatter than 6z, the GEFS actually have many more tucked members than 6z. Some ridiculous ones peppered in there, it looks like.

Definitely go the route of ensembles for now, But it seems like when we don't get a run up the coast we get them slipping east not trying to cut inland

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Just now, dryslot said:

Definitely go the route of ensembles for now, But it seems like when we don't get a run up the coast we get them slipping east not trying to cut inland

Yeah, too far out to know yet.

Meanwhile, what the heck is all this talk of winter being over in a week?

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Euro is a whiff for next week....but it isn't hard to see how it could be a hit. Pretty different H5 look at D6 vs last night...I was thinking it might do it this run, but too much interference from the arctic s/w diving in late.

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