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The March Lion Storm


cyclone77

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36 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

I'm going to go for a final call of 2" imby. Will be nice to see white again after a 3 week absence...but it's going to be tough to have those 2-3"/hr rates pass just to my south.

And the hi-res models are all in agreement with a slp passing near Erie, PA which is usually a dream track. But no dice.

You know what, I would complain right now about us always being on the short end of the stick, etc., but I'm not going to because it makes no difference lol. If we get 4" it 'll be a miracle and push YYZ above 40". 

There's always next year, right? (So tired of saying that).

 

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Just now, Snowstorms said:

You know what, I would complain right now about us always being on the short end of the stick, etc., but I'm not going to because it makes no difference lol. If we get 4" it 'll be a miracle and push YYZ above 40". 

There's always next year, right? (So tired of saying that).

 

But there's not always next year. You want snow (cover, consistent threats, whatever) move elsewhere.

I'm telling you...you'll be disappointed next year, the year after, etc.

Back to the storm...maybe we can hedge a miracle? It would only take a 25 mile nudge to the track to the north to get us into some moderate amounts at least. I'm not counting on it, but as you say...let's see.

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9 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

But there's not always next year. You want snow (cover, consistent threats, whatever) move elsewhere.

I'm telling you...you'll be disappointed next year, the year after, etc.

Back to the storm...maybe we can hedge a miracle? It would only take a 25 mile nudge to the track to the north to get us into some moderate amounts at least. I'm not counting on it, but as you say...let's see.

To be honest, I could care less about actual snow cover. My main complaint lies in the fact that getting ~40" or more (close to normal) has been a sheer obstacle in recent years. I've become appreciative of even getting 2.0" when people some 25 miles south get 3× or more, lol.

Back to the storm, I'll be watching the surface obs for the next few hours. We still have some model discrepancy in regards to actual qpf. Key thing to note is that the heaviest bands are not to far from us (just over Lake Ontario). Track is ideal, but the lobe of energy near the Maritimes is sort of enhancing the NAO block thus sending the LP more E than NE. If thats a bit weaker we can pull through with something around 4".

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On the edge of the sweet spot here.  Watching the main band of precip setup over a two county wide area it appears with more likely to build on the South side of it versus the North side. Temperature slowly dropping now down to 35.  With perhaps 1.5" QPF expected...when it changes over will be interesting.  

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10 minutes ago, n1vek said:

This feels like a Brighton, Clarkston, Lake Orion special. The extra 500 feet is going to help with accumulations vs closer to the city.

Maybe but latest HRRR puts the highest QPF from the Washtenaw County line South.   Of course the 2 or 3 degrees difference in temp will help the higher elevations or further North areas for sure.  

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Everything looks great for here and also NW OH/southern MI (and possibly adjacent NE IN).  Already seeing some snow/sleet mix in over MI and even extreme NW OH and that band is looking robust.  Short range models haven't backed off on the stronger low.  The HRRR and NAM3 would be a blizzard here or very close, the wet snow makes the visibility harder to reduce. 

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2 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Everything looks great for here and also NW OH/southern MI (and possibly adjacent NE IN).  Already seeing some snow/sleet mix in over MI and even extreme NW OH and that band is looking robust.  Short range models haven't backed off on the stronger low.  The HRRR and NAM3 would be a blizzard here or very close, the wet snow makes the visibility harder to reduce. 

There's some pretty good instability in place too (see mid-level lapse rates and EPV values). So reports of thundersnow by mid-afternoon wouldn't surprise me. That would locally increase amounts and enhance winds too.

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12z RGEM cut back amounts considerably for the GTA. Ain't nothing to see here, lol. 

I'm going to lean closer to 1-2" at this point in time. Really disappointed, but it is what it is. This is the third storm this winter we've rode the line, where a slight shift by 50 miles could have made a difference between 2" and 6". 

 

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13 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

12z RGEM cut back amounts considerably for the GTA. Ain't nothing to see here, lol. 

I'm going to lean closer to 1-2" at this point in time. Really disappointed, but it is what it is. This is the third storm this winter we've rode the line, where a slight shift by 50 miles could have made a difference between 2" and 6". 

 

Just have to wait and see. Anything that falls and sticks is great because its looking increasingly like this might be the last snow (widespread) The heat signals for the middle to end of March are increasing. I live on the oakville/Mississauga border south of the QEW so those April slush storms that the northern GTA see every year dont accumulate much down here. 

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