OHweather Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 The Euro is also coming in more amped. It was noticeable at initiation vs its 12 hour forecast from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 1, 2018 Author Share Posted March 1, 2018 Glad this storm worked out for some of the sub. Looks like this could get Detroit over 60" for the season if trends continue. With the rest of March and April maybe 70-80" on the table? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I can't wait to work tomorrow, this is going to be great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Completely unrelated to the snow, but the more amped solutions appear to have enough shear and just enough CAPE south of the warm front in central/southern OH for a marginal tornado threat for a few hours this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Two DTX counties under a WSW, rest are advisory. Five IWX counties in an advisory too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 06Z NAMs are SUPER amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Wow looks like potential for some heavy heavy snow!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 IWX fully on the amped train, calling for 6-8 here. Detroit's gonna get socked, you guys could run on a foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenBo Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Detroit could be in for a very rough commute later this afternoon. Some outputs are showing rates pushing 1.5-2” per hour. This is going to be sweet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I'm wondering how crucial temps will be. 34 and heavy snow vs 31 and heavy snow can make a big difference in accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I'm going to go for a final call of 2" imby. Will be nice to see white again after a 3 week absence...but it's going to be tough to have those 2-3"/hr rates pass just to my south. And the hi-res models are all in agreement with a slp passing near Erie, PA which is usually a dream track. But no dice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 36 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: I'm going to go for a final call of 2" imby. Will be nice to see white again after a 3 week absence...but it's going to be tough to have those 2-3"/hr rates pass just to my south. And the hi-res models are all in agreement with a slp passing near Erie, PA which is usually a dream track. But no dice. You know what, I would complain right now about us always being on the short end of the stick, etc., but I'm not going to because it makes no difference lol. If we get 4" it 'll be a miracle and push YYZ above 40". There's always next year, right? (So tired of saying that). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, Snowstorms said: You know what, I would complain right now about us always being on the short end of the stick, etc., but I'm not going to because it makes no difference lol. If we get 4" it 'll be a miracle and push YYZ above 40". There's always next year, right? (So tired of saying that). But there's not always next year. You want snow (cover, consistent threats, whatever) move elsewhere. I'm telling you...you'll be disappointed next year, the year after, etc. Back to the storm...maybe we can hedge a miracle? It would only take a 25 mile nudge to the track to the north to get us into some moderate amounts at least. I'm not counting on it, but as you say...let's see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Damn, double digit tally at my house? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 9 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: But there's not always next year. You want snow (cover, consistent threats, whatever) move elsewhere. I'm telling you...you'll be disappointed next year, the year after, etc. Back to the storm...maybe we can hedge a miracle? It would only take a 25 mile nudge to the track to the north to get us into some moderate amounts at least. I'm not counting on it, but as you say...let's see. To be honest, I could care less about actual snow cover. My main complaint lies in the fact that getting ~40" or more (close to normal) has been a sheer obstacle in recent years. I've become appreciative of even getting 2.0" when people some 25 miles south get 3× or more, lol. Back to the storm, I'll be watching the surface obs for the next few hours. We still have some model discrepancy in regards to actual qpf. Key thing to note is that the heaviest bands are not to far from us (just over Lake Ontario). Track is ideal, but the lobe of energy near the Maritimes is sort of enhancing the NAO block thus sending the LP more E than NE. If thats a bit weaker we can pull through with something around 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On the edge of the sweet spot here. Watching the main band of precip setup over a two county wide area it appears with more likely to build on the South side of it versus the North side. Temperature slowly dropping now down to 35. With perhaps 1.5" QPF expected...when it changes over will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 1, 2018 Author Share Posted March 1, 2018 Nice soaking overnight. HRRR nailed it. Picked up 0.61". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 This feels like a Brighton, Clarkston, Lake Orion special. The extra 500 feet is going to help with accumulations vs closer to the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On February 25, 2018 at 1:59 PM, Chicago Storm said: ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 10 minutes ago, n1vek said: This feels like a Brighton, Clarkston, Lake Orion special. The extra 500 feet is going to help with accumulations vs closer to the city. Maybe but latest HRRR puts the highest QPF from the Washtenaw County line South. Of course the 2 or 3 degrees difference in temp will help the higher elevations or further North areas for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Enjoy your snowstorm, SE Michigan friends. You know deep down what I am thinking, but complaining won't make a difference. It looks like it will be a fun time for you all today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Even using conservative ratios, 12z NAM shows a solid 10" from Ann Arbor to Detroit. The transition from rain is earlier too (before 18z). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Everything looks great for here and also NW OH/southern MI (and possibly adjacent NE IN). Already seeing some snow/sleet mix in over MI and even extreme NW OH and that band is looking robust. Short range models haven't backed off on the stronger low. The HRRR and NAM3 would be a blizzard here or very close, the wet snow makes the visibility harder to reduce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, OHweather said: Everything looks great for here and also NW OH/southern MI (and possibly adjacent NE IN). Already seeing some snow/sleet mix in over MI and even extreme NW OH and that band is looking robust. Short range models haven't backed off on the stronger low. The HRRR and NAM3 would be a blizzard here or very close, the wet snow makes the visibility harder to reduce. There's some pretty good instability in place too (see mid-level lapse rates and EPV values). So reports of thundersnow by mid-afternoon wouldn't surprise me. That would locally increase amounts and enhance winds too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Looks like the change over is starting to occur in a number of areas including Ingham county. Still pouring rain here in Eastern Jackson County at 34.7 F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 There are reports of mixing in Auburn Hills, and Lansing / Howell have supposedly flipped over to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 10 minutes ago, Powerball said: There are reports of mixing in Auburn Hills, and Lansing / Howell have supposedly flipped over to snow. https://msutoday.msu.edu/webcams/webcam01.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 12z RGEM cut back amounts considerably for the GTA. Ain't nothing to see here, lol. I'm going to lean closer to 1-2" at this point in time. Really disappointed, but it is what it is. This is the third storm this winter we've rode the line, where a slight shift by 50 miles could have made a difference between 2" and 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Snow finally started to mix in at 10:30 as far South as I-94 in Jackson County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 13 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: 12z RGEM cut back amounts considerably for the GTA. Ain't nothing to see here, lol. I'm going to lean closer to 1-2" at this point in time. Really disappointed, but it is what it is. This is the third storm this winter we've rode the line, where a slight shift by 50 miles could have made a difference between 2" and 6". Just have to wait and see. Anything that falls and sticks is great because its looking increasingly like this might be the last snow (widespread) The heat signals for the middle to end of March are increasing. I live on the oakville/Mississauga border south of the QEW so those April slush storms that the northern GTA see every year dont accumulate much down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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