Snowstorms Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 The 12z HRDPS is further south of the 3km NAM and 12z GFS. Grazes the GTA with ~3.0", lol. 12z UKIE is likewise. As usual, the GTA gets shafted by a last minute south shift after being teased by either a nice track or a track to far north less than 48 hours out. Pathetic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 I'd hate to be you guys/gals. But I think conservative is the way to go right now as there's just not enough agreement/support for the NAM. As was mentioned, the morning AFD did a nice job laying out the wide array of possibilities.Agree with your thinking. While the 12z NAMs were somewhat of a positive step, the rest of the 12z suite thus far wasn't really. Would think the day shift will play it conservative. Interested to see what the Euro shows. Otherwise chances appear to be dwindling here, though a more NAM like scenario can't be completely ruled out. At least the evening and overnight shifts will see things playing out in real time tonight and then we'll really know which way to go.Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 42 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: The 12z HRDPS is further south of the 3km NAM and 12z GFS. Grazes the GTA with ~3.0", lol. 12z UKIE is likewise. As usual, the GTA gets shafted by a last minute south shift after being teased by either a nice track or a track to far north less than 48 hours out. Pathetic! This was rain 72 hours ago. How can you complain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 hours ago, mississaugasnow said: This has a chance to be one of the biggest disruptive snowstorms of the year for the GTA. 2 weeks of above normal temperatures, today is going to get into low to mid 50s. The last thing on peoples minds is a 3-6" (could be a lot more, especially western GTA) with winds over 30mph could make the friday morning commute horrifying. Add to the fact that the models are still all over the place, so getting the word out of a possible snowstorm is hindered. Do you think EC follows NWS Buffalo and goes with a Winter Storm Watch at the 3:30pm update? EC rarely does WS watches anymore. I think it has a lot to do that they often get conjoined with the hype that happens on social media, and then they feel the unjustified heat afterwards when the weenie's on social media bust. Setting that aside, I think they'll probably go straight to a warning for the zones bordering Lake Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said: Agree with your thinking. While the 12z NAMs were somewhat of a positive step, the rest of the 12z suite thus far wasn't really. Would think the day shift will play it conservative. Interested to see what the Euro shows. Otherwise chances appear to be dwindling here, though a more NAM like scenario can't be completely ruled out. At least the evening and overnight shifts will see things playing out in real time tonight and then we'll really know which way to go. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk ARW2 flips to heavy snow in northern IL. Waiting on the ARW and NMM. Edit: looks like they change over but not nearly as bullish as the ARW2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 12z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Euro hangs tough with 2-3 for Marshall..just what I'm looking for tbh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, beavis1729 said: Day-n-a-half ago, it had nearly a foot for mby.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 7 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: 12z Euro Nearly 2' of slop for my area, I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 57 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: EC rarely does WS watches anymore. I think it has a lot to do that they often get conjoined with the hype that happens on social media, and then they feel the unjustified heat afterwards when the weenie's on social media bust. Setting that aside, I think they'll probably go straight to a warning for the zones bordering Lake Erie. Todays temperatures are overachieving a bunch. 60F outside and sunny, feels great. Cant believe tomorrow at this time we should be in the low 30s with snow starting to fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 hour ago, snowstormcanuck said: This was rain 72 hours ago. How can you complain? Ill gladly take 3-6". Like you said, we haven't seen snow in weeks. Also 3-6" have been the majority of the snowstorms this year so its not like we've been blessed with big dogs and this is more nuisance. I also think some parts of the GTA might overachieve and we see some reports of 8-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Cautiously excited here! Could be a gorgeous plaster snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 hour ago, snowstormcanuck said: This was rain 72 hours ago. How can you complain? Well to be fair, only the GFS showed nothing but rain. A couple (ukie for example) was primarily south of the area, but most runs were half-decent. Now it looks as if we'll be lucky to walk away with anything more than 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 51 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: 12z Euro It's never good for anyone when "bummer man" posts a map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 can't buy a Chicago and north cold jackpot cutter in yrs. Hence the worst climo of SE, MI. having a great stream of winters and those to the west NASO much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 21 minutes ago, Baum said: It's never good for anyone when "bummer man" posts a map. Short Rangers are coughing up some weenie runs across SMI, especially for mby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 21 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Short Rangers are coughing up some weenie runs across SMI, especially for mby This has been a now cast storm from the start. Don't trust anything you see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 hour ago, Snowstorms said: Well to be fair, only the GFS showed nothing but rain. A couple (ukie for example) was primarily south of the area, but most runs were half-decent. Now it looks as if we'll be lucky to walk away with anything more than 4". 18z NAM looks like it's going to whiff us. If that ends up happening....complain away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdp Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 18Z NAM showing no snow for anywhere near Chicagoland. The way things are going, 00Z will probably have us getting three feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, mdp said: 18Z NAM showing no snow for anywhere near Chicagoland. The way things are going, 00Z will probably have us getting three feet. It won’t. Every run of almost every piece of guidance has trended less phased since around the 12z runs yesterday. Chicago may not see any snow and this may only drop a few inches on parts of lower MI the way it’s going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 hour ago, Baum said: It's never good for anyone when "bummer man" posts a map. You must be mistaking me for someone else. I posted the map simply because I thought folks out east would want to see it, and I'm interested in more than my own backyard. With regard to this system, it has certainly been frustrating to watch the wild flip-flopping and general backtracking by the models due to the usual phasing problem around here. However, while I'll never pass on a big snow event, this time of year I'll be happy with a continued thaw and pleasant weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 lol...and there she goes. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdp Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 7 minutes ago, OHweather said: It won’t. Every run of almost every piece of guidance has trended less phased since around the 12z runs yesterday. Chicago may not see any snow and this may only drop a few inches on parts of lower MI the way it’s going. Oh, I know. Just a little joke to try to keep some false hope. Looking further at the runs: 12Z NAM had ~1" of precipitation IMBY (north Chicago 'burbs). 18Z NAM had .05". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Welp. Time to punt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 29 minutes ago, Baum said: This has been a now cast storm from the start. Don't trust anything you see. Nothing I posted implied that, just fun to see weenie runs with 12-15" over yby. Other maps have 1-3/2-4 which my instincts say is much more realistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 12 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: 18z NAM looks like it's going to whiff us. If that ends up happening....complain away. **** this winter! Honestly, how do you go from being a big rain maker to literally missing the entire region without even a drop in a matter of 24 hours? I'm over this winter, if that's what you want to call it. I don't think I've ever been so disappointed than right now. Then again, the last three winters including this one have been anything but great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 9 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: **** this winter! Honestly, how do you go from being a big rain maker to literally missing the entire region without even a drop in a matter of 24 hours? I'm over this winter, if that's what you want to call it. I don't think I've ever been so disappointed than right now. Then again, the last three winters including this one have been anything but great! The 12z Euro ensemble members are all over the place. The mean/control run is similar to the operational run, but man, there are some divergent members, ranging from a monster with over 1" QPF to a complete whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 21 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: **** this winter! Honestly, how do you go from being a big rain maker to literally missing the entire region without even a drop in a matter of 24 hours? I'm over this winter, if that's what you want to call it. I don't think I've ever been so disappointed than right now. Then again, the last three winters including this one have been anything but great! Time to take a break from the boards. (Met) winter is over tomorrow so you won't have to be over it for long. It was fairly average overall. Front-loaded this year and can't deny the first half was pretty good. Anyway... 18Z definitely coming in way south. At least we'll probably avoid rain for the most part. Oh well, I was enjoying being able to bike to work again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 7 minutes ago, Toronto4 said: The 12z Euro ensemble members are all over the place. The mean/control run is similar to the operational run, but man, there are some divergent members, ranging from a monster with over 1" QPF to a complete whiff. Good point. However, the general consensus leaned towards a couple of inches when you averaged out the mean. To have it completely whiff us considering where the models, i.e. GFS, had this storm just 3 runs ago, would be insane. This winter has done a number on the models, partially due to the Pacific pattern and now in this case, thanks to the massive -NAO block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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