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The March Lion Storm


cyclone77

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The 12z HRDPS is further south of the 3km NAM and 12z GFS. Grazes the GTA with ~3.0", lol. 12z UKIE is likewise. 

As usual, the GTA gets shafted by a last minute south shift after being teased by either a nice track or a track to far north less than 48 hours out. Pathetic! <_<

 

 

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I'd hate to be you guys/gals.    But I think conservative is the way to go right now as there's just not enough agreement/support for the NAM.  As was mentioned, the morning AFD did a nice job laying out the wide array of possibilities.
Agree with your thinking. While the 12z NAMs were somewhat of a positive step, the rest of the 12z suite thus far wasn't really. Would think the day shift will play it conservative. Interested to see what the Euro shows. Otherwise chances appear to be dwindling here, though a more NAM like scenario can't be completely ruled out. At least the evening and overnight shifts will see things playing out in real time tonight and then we'll really know which way to go.

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42 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

The 12z HRDPS is further south of the 3km NAM and 12z GFS. Grazes the GTA with ~3.0", lol. 12z UKIE is likewise. 

As usual, the GTA gets shafted by a last minute south shift after being teased by either a nice track or a track to far north less than 48 hours out. Pathetic! <_<

 

 

This was rain 72 hours ago. How can you complain?

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2 hours ago, mississaugasnow said:

This has a chance to be one of the biggest disruptive snowstorms of the year for the GTA. 2 weeks of above normal temperatures, today is going to get into low to mid 50s. The last thing on peoples minds is a 3-6" (could be a lot more, especially western GTA) with winds over 30mph could make the friday morning commute horrifying. 

Add to the fact that the models are still all over the place, so getting the word out of a possible snowstorm is hindered. 

Do you think EC follows NWS Buffalo and goes with a Winter Storm Watch at the 3:30pm update? 

EC rarely does WS watches anymore. I think it has a lot to do that they often get conjoined with the hype that happens on social media, and then they feel the unjustified heat afterwards when the weenie's on social media bust.

Setting that aside, I think they'll probably go straight to a warning for the zones bordering Lake Erie.

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1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said:

Agree with your thinking. While the 12z NAMs were somewhat of a positive step, the rest of the 12z suite thus far wasn't really. Would think the day shift will play it conservative. Interested to see what the Euro shows. Otherwise chances appear to be dwindling here, though a more NAM like scenario can't be completely ruled out. At least the evening and overnight shifts will see things playing out in real time tonight and then we'll really know which way to go.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
 

ARW2 flips to heavy snow in northern IL. Waiting on the ARW and NMM.

Edit:  looks like they change over but not nearly as bullish as the ARW2

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57 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

EC rarely does WS watches anymore. I think it has a lot to do that they often get conjoined with the hype that happens on social media, and then they feel the unjustified heat afterwards when the weenie's on social media bust.

Setting that aside, I think they'll probably go straight to a warning for the zones bordering Lake Erie.

Todays temperatures are overachieving a bunch. 60F outside and sunny, feels great. Cant believe tomorrow at this time we should be in the low 30s with snow starting to fall. 

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1 hour ago, snowstormcanuck said:

This was rain 72 hours ago. How can you complain?

Ill gladly take 3-6". Like you said, we haven't seen snow in weeks. Also 3-6" have been the majority of the snowstorms this year so its not like we've been blessed with big dogs and this is more nuisance. I also think some parts of the GTA might overachieve and we see some reports of 8-10"

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1 hour ago, snowstormcanuck said:

This was rain 72 hours ago. How can you complain?

Well to be fair, only the GFS showed nothing but rain. A couple (ukie for example) was primarily south of the area, but most runs were half-decent. Now it looks as if we'll be lucky to walk away with anything more than 4". 

 

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1 hour ago, Snowstorms said:

Well to be fair, only the GFS showed nothing but rain. A couple (ukie for example) was primarily south of the area, but most runs were half-decent. Now it looks as if we'll be lucky to walk away with anything more than 4". 

 

18z NAM looks like it's going to whiff us. If that ends up happening....complain away.

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2 minutes ago, mdp said:

18Z NAM showing no snow for anywhere near Chicagoland. The way things are going, 00Z will probably have us getting three feet.

It won’t. Every run of almost every piece of guidance has trended less phased since around the 12z runs yesterday.  Chicago may not see any snow and this may only drop a few inches on parts of lower MI the way it’s going. 

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1 hour ago, Baum said:

It's never good for anyone when "bummer man" posts a map. 

You must be mistaking me for someone else.  I posted the map simply because I thought folks out east would want to see it, and I'm interested in more than my own backyard.

With regard to this system, it has certainly been frustrating to watch the wild flip-flopping and general backtracking by the models due to the usual phasing problem around here.  However, while I'll never pass on a big snow event, this time of year I'll be happy with a continued thaw and pleasant weather.

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7 minutes ago, OHweather said:

It won’t. Every run of almost every piece of guidance has trended less phased since around the 12z runs yesterday.  Chicago may not see any snow and this may only drop a few inches on parts of lower MI the way it’s going. 

Oh, I know. Just a little joke to try to keep some false hope.

Looking further at the runs: 12Z NAM had ~1" of precipitation IMBY (north Chicago 'burbs). 18Z NAM had .05".

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12 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

18z NAM looks like it's going to whiff us. If that ends up happening....complain away.

**** this winter! 

Honestly, how do you go from being a big rain maker to literally missing the entire region without even a drop in a matter of 24 hours? I'm over this winter, if that's what you want to call it. I don't think I've ever been so disappointed than right now. Then again, the last three winters including this one have been anything but great! 

 

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9 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

**** this winter! 

Honestly, how do you go from being a big rain maker to literally missing the entire region without even a drop in a matter of 24 hours? I'm over this winter, if that's what you want to call it. I don't think I've ever been so disappointed than right now. Then again, the last three winters including this one have been anything but great! 

 

The 12z Euro ensemble members are all over the place. The mean/control run is similar to the operational run, but man, there are some divergent members, ranging from a monster with over 1" QPF to a complete whiff.

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21 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

**** this winter! 

Honestly, how do you go from being a big rain maker to literally missing the entire region without even a drop in a matter of 24 hours? I'm over this winter, if that's what you want to call it. I don't think I've ever been so disappointed than right now. Then again, the last three winters including this one have been anything but great! 

 

Time to take a break from the boards. (Met) winter is over tomorrow so you won't have to be over it for long. It was fairly average overall. Front-loaded this year and can't deny the first half was pretty good. Anyway...

18Z definitely coming in way south. At least we'll probably avoid rain for the most part.

Oh well, I was enjoying being able to bike to work again. 

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7 minutes ago, Toronto4 said:

The 12z Euro ensemble members are all over the place. The mean/control run is similar to the operational run, but man, there are some divergent members, ranging from a monster with over 1" QPF to a complete whiff.

Good point. However, the general consensus leaned towards a couple of inches when you averaged out the mean. To have it completely whiff us considering where the models, i.e. GFS, had this storm just 3 runs ago, would be insane. This winter has done a number on the models, partially due to the Pacific pattern and now in this case, thanks to the massive -NAO block. 

 

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