HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 0Z NAM actually changes over faster in most spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 12 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: Drastic changes at H5 this close are beyond laughable. Hard to believe how much inconsistency there is. On the other hand, the 0z Nam is pretty sweet! With how pancaked the southern wave looked at 24 you could have been forgiven for thinking this thing was going to ride the OH river. But the SE ridging was a bit more robust and that blocking lobe over Quebec weakened enough to gives us a very yummy run. Still riding the line but that's a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 RGEM with a 999 a bit NW of LAF at 36 & 992 over YNG at 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 23 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: RGEM with a 992 over YNG at 48. Interesting that it doesn't have the dynamic cooling in the cold sector like the NAM does, at least through 39hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3km NAM is quite different at the surface vs its 12km counterpart. H5 looks about the same, albeit a few minor differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 GFS is still north but it did shift south and takes the low south of here, still suffering from issues with dynamic cooling though especially as the system really wraps up just SE of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 The western end seems to be a question mark depending on phasing/dynamic cooling. In other words, how fast does the snow band really crank? Areas farther east like Michigan seem to be a better bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Euro is a solid hit here but absolutely destroys Woodstock to Kitchener/Waterloo and over to Hamilton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Can someone post the Euro if possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, Stebo said: Euro is a solid hit here but absolutely destroys Woodstock to Kitchener/Waterloo and over to Hamilton. Nice. At least we're finally seeing some consolidation in the model spread. UKIE has shifted much further north from its ragged 12z solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 7 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Can someone post the Euro if possible? 3" for Hillsdale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 12 minutes ago, Stebo said: Euro is a solid hit here but absolutely destroys Woodstock to Kitchener/Waterloo and over to Hamilton. Welland with 30" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, Stebo said: 3" for Hillsdale I'll take it lol Although I wouldn't mind a trend closer to the 3K nam lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 7 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: Nice. At least we're finally seeing some consolidation in the model spread. UKIE has shifted much further north from its ragged 12z solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 @Stebo You think this system will produce enough cold air on its own to be primarily snow on NW quadrant? There is virtually no cold air source, just self produced. Believe this will be an elevation based event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Haldimand County, ON bullseye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: @Stebo You think this system will produce enough cold air on its own to be primarily snow on NW quadrant? There is virtually no cold air source, just self produced. Believe this will be an elevation based event. I do believe so, especially once it phases. It will pull in some colder air at the surface from the Northeast and Northwest. Combine this with the dynamic cooling from aloft on down. Lastly what should help initially is the lakes are pretty cold too and we will get a flow off them by early on Thursday locally and out of the East in general for Ontario. It is marginal in the sense that we need it to phase as it gets to Indiana otherwise the further west you go the less the potential gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Dammit....tremendous LOT AFD by the way on the potential. 06Z runs continue to trend back towards less phase in these parts, and less impressive to the east as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Again differences between 6z and 12z NAM continue. Northern lobe of energy doesn't dig as much as the 0z and 6z and thus the system is considerably weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdp Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 12Z NAM looking a little better for the near-in Chicago area than the last couple runs -- 3-6" from I-88 north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Yeesh, looks like nothing for us when some of yesterday's runs had 4-6." Why am I not surprised when all is said and done this will be another S. MI special? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 I'd say the 12z NAMs were a step back in right direction toward faster phase aiding in getting the convective rates and flip to heavy wet snow over the Chicago area. Gonna be very close though with little room for error this far west. More margin for error over lower MI. Could easily be a miss just to our east here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 First call for mby is 4" of cement. And after 3 weeks with not a flake of snow...I'll be happy to take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 8 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: First call for mby is 4" of cement. And after 3 weeks with not a flake of snow...I'll be happy to take it. This has a chance to be one of the biggest disruptive snowstorms of the year for the GTA. 2 weeks of above normal temperatures, today is going to get into low to mid 50s. The last thing on peoples minds is a 3-6" (could be a lot more, especially western GTA) with winds over 30mph could make the friday morning commute horrifying. Add to the fact that the models are still all over the place, so getting the word out of a possible snowstorm is hindered. Do you think EC follows NWS Buffalo and goes with a Winter Storm Watch at the 3:30pm update? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 13 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said: Do you think EC follows NWS Buffalo and goes with a Winter Storm Watch at the 3:30pm update? I think they should for the Hamilton-Niagara corridor. That area is looking ripe for a 8"-12" jackpot. GFS seems a bit far north, I'm liking a Euro/NAM blend at the moment. Not sure how useful snow maps are given ratios will likely be poor for the majority of the event. Still worth noting some big precip amounts showing up so we'll have to see at what point things change over to have higher end amounts realized. 00Z ECMWF: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 12Z GFS went south in line with the Euro/NAM. Pretty good consensus on the heavy snow area now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 The GFS shifts further south as does the RGEM and now both show ~3.0-4.0" across the GTA. As well, both are considerably weaker. Nothing is set in stone, yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Overall,sounds lame across the board. Easy to get sucked in by some of those amped NAM runs. Reality, just have to hope for a surprise flip to heavy wet snow as alluded to by LOT in thier overnight discussion. 2-3" of slop is sort of lame at this point in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said: I'd say the 12z NAMs were a step back in right direction toward faster phase aiding in getting the convective rates and flip to heavy wet snow over the Chicago area. Gonna be very close though with little room for error this far west. More margin for error over lower MI. Could easily be a miss just to our east here. I'd hate to be you guys/gals. But I think conservative is the way to go right now as there's just not enough agreement/support for the NAM. As was mentioned, the morning AFD did a nice job laying out the wide array of possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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