Malacka11 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Bit late to the show... How's Northern Illinois looking? Mostly rain with x amount of backside snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 10 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: Euro takes the system and moves the jackpot out of Iowa and to S MI. Classic. I called it..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 26, 2018 Author Share Posted February 26, 2018 That was actually the best run (Euro) yet for the QC to Chicago area. Would be a nice 5-8" cement pasting verbatim. The frenetic nature of the model runs will likely continue for another 48hrs, so I'm not gonna get too excited either way at this point lol. Sure would be nice if we were dealing with a widespread snow event, but that's definitely not what we have with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: That was actually the best run (Euro) yet for the QC to Chicago area. Would be a nice 5-8" cement pasting verbatim. The frenetic nature of the model runs will likely continue for another 48hrs, so I'm not gonna get too excited either way at this point lol. Sure would be nice if we were dealing with a widespread snow event, but that's definitely not what we have with this system. Well as far as I'm concerned, even if it doesn't actually come to fruition, this means that we get to enjoy the possibility that it will beforehand, which is fun in itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 26, 2018 Author Share Posted February 26, 2018 8 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Well as far as I'm concerned, even if it doesn't actually come to fruition, this means that we get to enjoy the possibility that it will beforehand, which is fun in itself. The Euro has up to an inch of precip over parts of northern IL after the changeover occurs. It's p-type forecast falsely changes the precip back over to rain on the back side of the heavier snows, which won't happen, so the snowfall accumulation maps (verbatim) are actually underdoing it a bit. LSRs will likely be below 10:1 though, so it would probably even out. That's really getting into too much detail at this point for obvious reasons, but it shows the potential for a period of very heavy wet snows after the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 So even if it doesn't snow a lot, it'll be heavy. Fun time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 47 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: That was actually the best run (Euro) yet for the QC to Chicago area. Would be a nice 5-8" cement pasting verbatim. The frenetic nature of the model runs will likely continue for another 48hrs, so I'm not gonna get too excited either way at this point lol. Sure would be nice if we were dealing with a widespread snow event, but that's definitely not what we have with this system. 44 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Well as far as I'm concerned, even if it doesn't actually come to fruition, this means that we get to enjoy the possibility that it will beforehand, which is fun in itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 19 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: There you go! Thanks for the happiness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 2 hours ago, cyclone77 said: That was actually the best run (Euro) yet for the QC to Chicago area. Would be a nice 5-8" cement pasting verbatim. The frenetic nature of the model runs will likely continue for another 48hrs, so I'm not gonna get too excited either way at this point lol. Sure would be nice if we were dealing with a widespread snow event, but that's definitely not what we have with this system. Definitely been persistent in trying to dump significant snow in northern IL over the last few runs. The million dollar question where the changeover occurs is the boundary layer temps... how much snow will be "wasted" with temps 34-35 vs near/below freezing? The Euro has a number of hours here with snow and 2m temps above freezing, but 925 mb temps below freezing during that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Boy seasonal trends are slow to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILtwister Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 21 hours ago, RCNYILWX said: Been out of the loop mostly on this with it being my son's 1st bday weekend and baptism, but just looked at 12z Euro. In a marginal thermal profile setup, always good to be suspicious of the GFS. Often does a poor job picking up on dynamic cooling/evaporative cooling combo. Obviously surface low track will have a huge say in who gets what, but the GFS being suspiciously warm when it should be cooling lower levels in a dynamic system is a classic GFS bias. If anyone was following east coast system last Saturday, GFS completely missed a heavy wet snow for parts of NYC metro (NYC had 2-5" and parts of NE NJ had 8-9" and you had to go well north of that to get into snow accums on 12z GFS that day), while NAM and Euro did a much better job. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Pretty preposterous considering how the weather has been in recent months and bi-monthly periods... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxDanny Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Honestly, I am just excited about the possibility of thunder in the TROWEL and the near storm force winds anticipated. Not that we need the rain around here. Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Probably gonna get banned for posting this one, but here's the 00z NAM. These amounts fall in under 24 hours LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 22 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: Probably gonna get banned for posting this one, but here's the 00z NAM. These amounts fall in under 24 hours LOL. I will take the under for Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 hour ago, Stebo said: I will take the under for Wisconsin. That is one of the crazier Kuchera maps I can remember seeing in the Midwest 3 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 GFS came in a little less in the cheese state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Dammit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Lotta spread between the GFS and EURO/UKIE/GEM. NAM in the middle. Not going to speculate. Just going to sit back and watch this unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 12z NAM revives the 94-Special. Brings the goods to mby. If you're a fan (or not) of any kind of seasonal pattern, recurring cycle, etc.. this aligns very well with the Oct 10-11 windy rainer for SMI NAM 3km snowfall 10-11-17 5 am surf obs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 It almost seems like we are getting more model divergence as it gets closer. The 00z Euro backed off substantially. We'll see if the 12z run revives it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 The NAM went from having 3 feet of snow in part of Wisconsin to nothing. A lot of differences in the sensible outcome even through 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 NAM would be a major impact around here... not just the snow, but the wet snow/wind combo. Mixing depths aren't all that great but the low level flow is strong and ripping in off the lake. Hard to trust it yet though with how much it has been shifting around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Then there's this from the UKMET. Stuff is getting into the RAOB network on this mornings runs so hopefully another cycle of RAOBs helps to clear some of this up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: It almost seems like we are getting more model divergence as it gets closer. The 00z Euro backed off substantially. We'll see if the 12z run revives it. It seems that the Euro snow forecast from 1-2 days ago may be quite wrong for Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, Chinook said: It seems that the Euro snow forecast from 1-2 days ago may be quite wrong for Chicago. Euro handed the baton off to the NAM, and said "run widdit Forest, run.." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 57 minutes ago, Hoosier said: NAM would be a major impact around here... not just the snow, but the wet snow/wind combo. Mixing depths aren't all that great but the low level flow is strong and ripping in off the lake. Hard to trust it yet though with how much it has been shifting around. My grid up to 80% likely RN->SN for later Thursday. Going to be all about the ever-elusive dynamical cooling. I just want/need 1.6" to hit a solid 5 feet on the season so my bar is not that high for this lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 12z Euro improved some overall compared to the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 8 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 12z Euro improved some overall compared to the 00z run. It whiffs SE MI. toss. Lol. Jokes aside models have diverged more than reached a consensus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 The jump of SEMI doesn't make much sense but I'm not going to get hung up on one model run there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: It whiffs SE MI. toss. Lol. Jokes aside models have diverged more than reached a consensus Yeah that is a bit quirky. Why I said overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.