RogueWaves Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 On 2/27/2018 at 6:29 PM, michsnowfreak said: It whiffs SE MI. toss. Lol. Jokes aside models have diverged more than reached a consensus Expand LoL @ these models groping in the dark when there's any bit of tricky phasing involved around here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 On 2/27/2018 at 6:29 PM, michsnowfreak said: It whiffs SE MI. toss. Lol. Jokes aside models have diverged more than reached a consensus Expand On 2/27/2018 at 6:32 PM, Stebo said: The jump of SEMI doesn't make much sense but I'm not going to get hung up on one model run there. Expand Yeah, can't imagine the Motor City Magnet being denied by any system within an arm's reach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 On 2/27/2018 at 4:44 PM, Hoosier said: NAM would be a major impact around here... not just the snow, but the wet snow/wind combo. Mixing depths aren't all that great but the low level flow is strong and ripping in off the lake. Hard to trust it yet though with how much it has been shifting around. Expand Just to take a walk on the weenie side... 12z NAM has a period of 925 mb winds around 60 kts near Lake Michigan. Mixing to at/near that level would result in serious gusts closer to shore (the instantweathermaps gust product has 60 mph, which would be plausible IF we have 925 mb winds as strong as shown). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 On 2/27/2018 at 6:32 PM, Hoosier said: Yeah that is a bit quirky. Why I said overall. Expand Euro 12z gets me my 2" of +SLOP on my deck - perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 On 2/27/2018 at 6:37 PM, Hoosier said: Just to take a walk on the weenie side... 12z NAM has a period of 925 mb winds around 60 kts near Lake Michigan. Mixing to at/near that level would result in serious gusts closer to shore (the instantweathermaps gust product has 60 mph, which would be plausible IF we have 925 mb winds as strong as shown). Expand Considering The Crib hit 57 mph gust with Sunday morning's CF, don't see why not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 On 2/27/2018 at 6:38 PM, RogueWaves said: Considering The Crib hit 57 mph gust with Sunday morning's CF, don't see why not? Expand The crib might gust near 70 mph if a NAM type solution were to verify (not joking). It is in a perfect spot to maximize wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 On 2/27/2018 at 6:44 PM, Hoosier said: The crib might gust near 70 mph if a NAM type solution were to verify (not joking). It is in a perfect spot to maximize wind. Expand What'd it hit during Sandy? I think that was also a similar ideal situation iirc? I remember the beach sand here in St. Joseph being blown into massive drifts.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 On 2/27/2018 at 6:51 PM, RogueWaves said: What'd it hit during Sandy? I think that was also a similar ideal situation iirc? I remember the beach sand here in St. Joseph being blown into massive drifts.. Expand 58 mph, but that was with weaker 925 mb winds than what the NAM is progging. NAM is the high end solution for Chicago metro at this point. Probably unlikely to be as impressive (although the Euro backs it up to some extent in the Chicago area) but kinda fun to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Going to have less than ideal lead time if the stronger/more impactful solution pans out. Very interested to see what LOT has to say this afternoon, and how much credence they put in the NAM and ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 18z NAM looks like it's still going to be fairly amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 On 2/27/2018 at 8:20 PM, Hoosier said: 18z NAM looks like it's still going to be fairly amped. Expand Actually hotter than 12z. Pretty breathtaking run for the northern LOT cwa when factoring in the wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 On 2/27/2018 at 8:30 PM, Hoosier said: Actually hotter than 12z.Craziest NAM run in quite some time. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 On 2/27/2018 at 8:35 PM, RCNYILWX said: Craziest NAM run in quite some time. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Expand Huge impact on parts of LOT, no doubt about it. I can't remember seeing such heavy, wet snow + wind output in quite some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 On 2/27/2018 at 8:35 PM, RCNYILWX said: Craziest NAM run in quite some time. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Expand That's saying something...didn't throw down 30" in Wisconsin on last nights 00Z run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 3 km coming in big too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 There's always that one super amped 18z run within 48 hours of every storm, lol. But damn that is one sharp cut-off. Hamilton in the bulls eye with a whopping 18-20" and only 4.0" at YYZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 On 2/27/2018 at 8:44 PM, Hoosier said: 3 km coming in big too. Ended up a bit more spread the wealth for areas slightly farther south in metro, roughly I-80 corridor and north, while slightly lower on max totals. All in all, two incredible model runs for the metro, with as you said high end on the snow and wind combo for impacts. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 I feel bad for all the local NWS offices, the model spread on this is ridiculously huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 On 2/27/2018 at 9:05 PM, HillsdaleMIWeather said: I feel bad for all the local NWS offices, the model spread on this is ridiculously huge.Also, these dynamic cooling setups are quite fickle and dependent upon everything maxing out. I was involved with the horrible bust on 12/24/14, the NAM had a few runs similar to what 18z just showed including the 12z run the day before, and we literally got nothing. Everything fell apart. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 On 2/27/2018 at 9:01 PM, RCNYILWX said: Ended up a bit more spread the wealth for areas slightly farther south in metro, roughly I-80 corridor and north, while slightly lower on max totals. All in all, two incredible model runs for the metro, with as you said high end on the snow and wind combo for impacts. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Expand I may be forgettting something, but from a wet snow and wind perspective, the only other storm I can think of in the past 20 years that even remotely resembles what the NAM is advertising in the LOT cwa is 3/9/98. And that one was more of a city/south storm, with biggest impacts in northwest Indiana. The 18z NAM would surpass what that 1998 storm did. This would be an entirely different beast from the GHD storms with major power outage concerns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 On 2/27/2018 at 9:09 PM, RCNYILWX said: Also, these dynamic cooling setups are quite fickle and dependent upon everything maxing out. I was involved with the horrible bust on 12/24/14, the NAM had a few runs similar to what 18z just showed including the 12z run the day before, and we literally got nothing. Everything fell apart. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Expand Yeah, what is interesting though now at least locally is the low is going to south and the winds shift out of the NE at the surface fairly quickly into the event, we actually start cooling by midday here. If that were to happen would lead credence to the quick hit in the evening here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 On 2/27/2018 at 8:45 PM, Snowstorms said: There's always that one super amped 18z run within 48 hours of every storm, lol. But damn that is one sharp cut-off. Hamilton in the bulls eye with a whopping 18-20" and only 4.0" at YYZ. Expand Looks like more than that at YYZ proper, just going by the QPF maps. But that is an incredibly tight gradient across the City. Eastern burbs smoking flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 In reference to the Euro ensemble members, more than half of them are more amped up with the frozen precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 On 2/27/2018 at 9:26 PM, Angrysummons said: Starting to look more like a cutter before it occludes out to sea. Expand No it is a system that phases in the region and slides east, it isn't really cutting north except up to I-70 before phasing and sliding eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 On 2/27/2018 at 9:28 PM, Stebo said: No it is a system that phases in the region and slides east, it isn't really cutting north except up to I-70 before phasing and sliding eastward. Expand Will add here that every time we've had these long warm interludes during this cold season, they've ended very abruptly, and usually with something dynamic and snowy. So, this would continue that theme imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 On 2/27/2018 at 9:33 PM, Angrysummons said: That is what the foreign models do. But the GFS is different and I suspect the NAM will eventually catch on to that as well and stop developing the occluding low so far south. The GEFS were pretty vocal on that low being pretty strong cutting through the lakes and landing over SNE. That looks about right. The rain/wind will be impressive as will the lake/coastal erosion...........the snow side? bleh. Localized slop. Expand GFS and the NAM are pretty much on par with storm location, the difference is the GFS doesn't handle dynamic cooling events very well, so I am not sure what you are seeing because I am definitely not seeing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 On 2/27/2018 at 9:40 PM, Angrysummons said: Not the coastal/occlusion low, it is to far south initially on the NAM, which changes the dynamics. The GFS is much more compact and makes more sense. The 18z NAM will not verify as is. Expand It isn't occluding... it is phasing with the northern stream energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 On 2/27/2018 at 9:19 PM, snowstormcanuck said: Looks like more than that at YYZ proper, just going by the QPF maps. But that is an incredibly tight gradient across the City. Eastern burbs smoking flurries. Expand According to the link below (8th member of the Euro ensemble run), there are some amped up 12Z Euro ensemble members with over 1" QPF for the GTA. And also some whiffs and some in-between. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/7cde42424525268bfe98328ed2d8f162/m8_acc-total-precipitation/20180303-0600z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 I think Angrysummons ran the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 LOT afternoon afd was very low key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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