The March Lion Storm

[cyclone77]

I said I wasn't gonna really follow this thing until later in the week, but screw it here's a storm thread.  Details are going to change between now and then, as the models struggle with the phasing of the two waves.  Should be a nice little thread-the-needle snow event for someone though.  Depending on which model type and run that you look at the exact placement of the heavy snow band changes.  Haven't really looked into it much, but there may be some severe threat with this storm as well for parts of the southern/southeast portion of the sub.

[Baum]

I'm digging 63 degrees followed by 6" of clay. Also, would love to see that model run that RC posted as "a potential example of what this pattern" can do in forcing a cutter due east once it's blocked from over 7 days out verify.

[Chicago Storm]

[CheeselandSkies]

Seems to be a common late Feb./March issue for the S.WI/N. IL/IA area. We're too warm for heavy snow, but still too cold for significant severe action (last 2/28 being an exception).

[Snowstorms]

This event bares alot of resemblance to the Dec 92 storm. In the Dec 92 event, there wasn't alot of deep cold anomalies across the area as a weak SE ridge was predominant, but what's most compelling is the sequence of events at the H5 level. See the link below; 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1992/us1210.php 

The two vorts merge and the storm becomes negatively titled in Indiana before it wraps up and circulates off the East coast for a few days. We'll see how this event transpires. Nothing is set in stone as the models try to work out the upper air pattern. 

[snowstormcanuck]

2 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

This event bares alot of resemblance to the Dec 92 storm. In the Dec 92 event, there wasn't alot of deep cold anomalies across the area as a weak SE ridge was predominant, but what's most compelling is the sequence of events at the H5 level. See the link below; 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1992/us1210.php 

The two vorts merge and the storm becomes negatively titled in Indiana before it wraps up and circulates off the East coast for a few days. We'll see how this event transpires. Nothing is set in stone as the models try to work out the upper air pattern. 

Interesting analog. I definitely see the resemblance at H5.

I'm actually surprised at how much the GFS torches the boundary layers, even on a ENE/NE flow. Albeit the upstream airmass is more maritime than arctic, still, it looks sort of suspicious. Even during the heavier precip rates, GFS doesn't really cool temps from 925mb on down.

Think rain to start is a given. Then, maybe we'll transition to snow like the GEM shows. We're not known to do well in marginal events though. I'm not thinking this is a big storm. Maybe a couple to 4" of cement on the backside (if we're lucky).

[Hoosier]

There's been good agreement on the eastward move once it gets into IL, but probably too late south of about MSN-DTW (except for maybe some token snow).

[Baum]

^

i dunno I smell this one ever since angry dissed RC. Karma FTW.....

[Hoosier]

11 minutes ago, Baum said:

^

i dunno I smell this one ever since angry dissed RC. Karma FTW.....

Seems like it's been pretty locked to have biggest snows north of LOT (today's 12z Euro notwithstanding).  I guess anything is possible though.

[hlcater]

I'm thinking we are too far south as well. However, we'll be on the back side of this thing as it moves east, and several models(especially the Euro) show quite the backside event over here. I guess it all depends on when things cool down, as this looks to be a marginal temp event. I'd feel better if I were in S WI. This would be a perfect track for us if it there were more cold air available. 

[Snowstorms]

1 hour ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Interesting analog. I definitely see the resemblance at H5.

I'm actually surprised at how much the GFS torches the boundary layers, even on a ENE/NE flow. Albeit the upstream airmass is more maritime than arctic, still, it looks sort of suspicious. Even during the heavier precip rates, GFS doesn't really cool temps from 925mb on down.

Think rain to start is a given. Then, maybe we'll transition to snow like the GEM shows. We're not known to do well in marginal events though. I'm not thinking this is a big storm. Maybe a couple to 4" of cement on the backside (if we're lucky).

I agree. However, I'm not sold out on the warmth the GFS shows at all layers. When you consider all the cold anomalies across the north, I'd suspect some CAD to filter in through the region allowing the precipitation to transition over. The EURO showed this evolution quite nicely. However, it has shifted south in the last two runs. The next few days will be interesting, but for now I agree with 4.0". 

Despite its similarities, Dec 92 had alot more cold air aloft. Toronto primarily stayed as snow for the entire event with ~10-14 across the area. 

[Chinook]

Today's 12z Euro run has a super-close call for Chicago, with 0.8" of QPF in the form of snow for Chicago, although 850mb temps would be near 0C and temperatures at the surface would be at freezing, or perhaps slightly warmer than freezing. So, this is interesting, but it is still some 4 days away. The GFS has a pretty similar close call. So, don't get too excited until we get closer to the storm. Obviously you would want temps of 28F or lower for a nice fluffy snow.

[RCNYILWX]

Been out of the loop mostly on this with it being my son's 1st bday weekend and baptism, but just looked at 12z Euro. In a marginal thermal profile setup, always good to be suspicious of the GFS. Often does a poor job picking up on dynamic cooling/evaporative cooling combo. Obviously surface low track will have a huge say in who gets what, but the GFS being suspiciously warm when it should be cooling lower levels in a dynamic system is a classic GFS bias. If anyone was following east coast system last Saturday, GFS completely missed a heavy wet snow for parts of NYC metro (NYC had 2-5" and parts of NE NJ had 8-9" and you had to go well north of that to get into snow accums on 12z GFS that day), while NAM and Euro did a much better job.

 

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

[Hoosier]

11 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Been out of the loop mostly on this with it being my son's 1st bday weekend and baptism, but just looked at 12z Euro. In a marginal thermal profile setup, always good to be suspicious of the GFS. Often does a poor job picking up on dynamic cooling/evaporative cooling combo. Obviously surface low track will have a huge say in who gets what, but the GFS being suspiciously warm when it should be cooling lower levels in a dynamic system is a classic GFS bias. If anyone was following east coast system last Saturday, GFS completely missed a heavy wet snow for parts of NYC metro (NYC had 2-5" and parts of NE NJ had 8-9" and you had to go well north of that to get into snow accums on 12z GFS that day), while NAM and Euro did a much better job.

 

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

Regarding the NAM, we should get our first look at the changeover in northern IL on the 12z run.

[RCNYILWX]

Except the GFS didn't miss it. Nor was the 2-5 really "2-5". That was a classic wet snow melt job all the way back in the southern lakes. The GFS was to dry, but usually that is the case. This system has warm air aloft wrapping around the circulation. You guys are trying way to hard with this, way to hard.

I wasn't really making a prediction on what would happen in the Chicago area, we could certainly end up getting rain here. It was a general comment on being skeptical of GFS thermal profiles in possible dynamic cooling scenarios. It has had a common error of not cooling low levels enough. And the storm I mentioned unequivocally was a bad miss for the NYC metro by the GFS. Since I'm from there and my family still lives there, I was following it fairly closely and for several runs in a row up to 12z day of (and possibly even 18z), it showed all rain for NYC and adjacent NE NJ for that event.

With that being said, it's close enough in that the 12z Euro showing what it showed meant there's at least a reason to watch around here and 00z GFS is even a close call with a bit farther north sfc low track. We'll see shortly if 00z Euro does anything close to its 12z run. I don't think it's trying too hard to monitor this threat, while acknowledging caveats and what needs to go right for it to produce. Have you not seen dynamic late winter/early spring storms produce before in very marginal thermal profiles?

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

[cyclone77]

43 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

Except the GFS didn't miss it. Nor was the 2-5 really "2-5". That was a classic wet snow melt job all the way back in the southern lakes. The GFS was to dry, but usually that is the case. This system has warm air aloft wrapping around the circulation. You guys are trying way to hard with this, way to hard.

Incorrect.  I think most of us know that this will be a fairly localized, "thread the needle" type event.  Thermos for snow are marginal due to many factors, and that is why this will be a fairly small coverage deal.  It's worth following since the areas that get in on the snow will likely see a fairly impressive dump of heavy wet snow.  

[hawkeye_wx]

00z euro sticking with a strong storm, significant snowfall over east-central/northeast Iowa.

This time of year I kinda like to get the snow melted off and warm up, but I won't turn down a snowstorm.

[cyclone77]

41 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

00z euro sticking with a strong storm, significant snowfall over east-central/northeast Iowa.

This time of year I kinda like to get the snow melted off and warm up, but I won't turn down a snowstorm.

Still pretty early in the game, but the Iowa Falls/Platteville/Kenosha line is looking like they may set up pretty well for this needle event.

[snowstormcanuck]

5 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

I agree. However, I'm not sold out on the warmth the GFS shows at all layers. When you consider all the cold anomalies across the north, I'd suspect some CAD to filter in through the region allowing the precipitation to transition over. The EURO showed this evolution quite nicely. However, it has shifted south in the last two runs. The next few days will be interesting, but for now I agree with 4.0". 

Despite its similarities, Dec 92 had alot more cold air aloft. Toronto primarily stayed as snow for the entire event with ~10-14 across the area. 

GFS has been nudging south too. A number of the ensembles whiff us just to the south.

I guess the upside is that if we do get whiffed...it was just a rainstorm.

[Baum]

4 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Incorrect.  I think most of us know that this will be a fairly localized, "thread the needle" type event.  Thermos for snow are marginal due to many factors, and that is why this will be a fairly small coverage deal.  It's worth following since the areas that get in on the snow will likely see a fairly impressive dump of heavy wet snow.  

Well put. Not like we're expecting a swath of a 6-12 inch snowstorm over a large track able area. Rather, as I referred to a surprise dumping even where rain was anticipated due to dynamic cooling. It's that time of year. I'll refer Angry to this AM's LOT discussion as a reference point on the potential of these set ups. Till then, going to follow and enjoy the sunny 55 degree weather...

[Snowstorms]

5 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

GFS has been nudging south too. A number of the ensembles whiff us just to the south.

I guess the upside is that if we do get whiffed...it was just a rainstorm.

The 12z NAM is further south and much weaker as well. 

Haha, I agree. Even if it misses us completely at least we know we didn't miss out on a great snowstorm, haha! 

The H5 between today's 12z GFS and last nights 0z is easily noticeable, wow! The lack of proper phasing continues. 

[TugHillMatt]

Based on 12Z runs, I can already predict what will happen. If it nudges slightly north, it will somehow be rain for here. If it nudges south, the Kalamazoo to Flint to Detroit area gets snow. It has been the pattern for years.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Even if it does end up weaker, I'd rather get a little snow than more heavy rain.

[TugHillMatt]

2 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Even if it does end up weaker, I'd rather get a little snow than more heavy rain.

Yeah, you guys down there got dumped on. About 5 inches of rain?

[IWXwx]

10 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Even if it does end up weaker, I'd rather get a little snow than more heavy rain.

If I were you, I'd like where I am sitting right now. Gonna be close though. Eye of the needle.

[hawkeye_wx]

Every model so far this morning (nam, icon, gfs, gdps, uk) has become less phased, screwing Iowa.

[Guest]

Every model so far this morning (nam, icon, gfs, gdps, uk) has become less phased, screwing Iowa.

Yeah. I think any hope for a decent set up in Iowa has vanished.

Sent from my SM-G925T using Tapatalk

[RogueWaves]

42 minutes ago, Guest said:

Yeah. I think any hope for a decent set up in Iowa has vanished.

Sent from my SM-G925T using Tapatalk
 

..onto Detroit then!

[RogueWaves]

1 hour ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Even if it does end up weaker, I'd rather get a little snow than more heavy rain.

Yeah, no kiddin - basement's still under water. Tried to empty it by hand Saturday before I found out it was deeper than it looked. Awaiting the next truckload of pumps into town

[hlcater]

Euro takes the system and moves the jackpot out of Iowa and to S MI. Classic.