2/28 Severe Risk

[MattPetrulli]

SPC has a day 4 outlook out for the Arklatex area. 

Here's a highlight from SPC discussion

This feature along with a low-level
   jet in the Arklatex is forecast to create favorable shear profiles
   for organized severe storms including supercells and fast moving
   line-segments. A few tornadoes and some wind damage will be
   possible

[rolltide_130]

I don't see much with this one. Subtropical jet is messing the entire system up both kinematically and thermodynamically. It looks more like a flooding threat for now..

[Sydney Claridge]

The 10z HRRR (plus HRRR runs at 07z, 08z, and 09z) is pretty aggressive with destabilization and dew points over central and north central Texas, initiating supercells in this area near/west of the outlined marginal risk zone, including in the vicinity of the DFW metroplex and the I-35 corridor.  NAM and 3k NAM are a little more bearish, with less instability, and the severe storm threat is more aligned with the currently outlined risk zone of east Texas.

EDIT: slight risk has been extended westward to include the DFW metroplex.  2% tornado, 15% wind, 15% hail in north central Texas, with 5% hail probabilities in the remainder of the slight risk zone in NE TX, NW LA, and southern AR.

[Sydney Claridge]

Filtered sunshine (but still mostly to partly cloudy) here on the west side of Fort Worth, with the main line of storms forming out by Abilene.