March 2018 temperature forecast contest and Regional Rumble

[Roger Smith]

Welcome back to the temperature forecast contest and Regional Rumble ... February was rather a challenge and scores are fairly low in general, so the contest remains quite competitive. You can check the February thread to see how you and your region are doing.

So for March the forecast challenge is the same, predict the temperature anomalies for nine locations, in F deg, relative to 1981-2010 normal (average) values. 

These locations are: 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

... I will publicize the March contest in the regional announcements on Tuesday 27th to keep it top of mind ... the deadline is for penalty-free scoring, but the penalties this year are fairly relaxed (see January thread if you want to get the exact details, something like 1% every 4h late for the first 36 hours then 1% per hour added to that after 18z 2nd). With the low scoring in February, the late penalties ended up costing a few people very few points in fact. 

Good luck, hope to see everyone rumbling like crazy all year long, this may turn out to be a lot of fun (is that still legal?). 

[Stebo]

DCA +1.0

NYC +0.7

BOS -0.2

ORD +1.1

ATL +1.5

IAH +1.5

DEN -1.0

PHX -1.0

SEA -2.0

 

[Tom]

Quote

 

DCA -0.1

NYC -0.3

BOS -0.3

ORD -0.5

ATL +0.1

IAH +1.0

DEN +0.2

PHX +0.3

SEA -0.9

 

Philly

[Rjay]

DCA +1.0

NYC +1.0

BOS +1.0

ORD +2.0

ATL +1.5

IAH +2.0

DEN +1.0

PHX  +1.0

SEA -1.0

[jaxjagman]

DCA +0.6

NYC +0.9

BOS -0.6

ORD +1.2

ATL +0.8

IAH +1.8

DEN -1.6

PHX +1.3

SEA -1.8

 

TV

 

[wxallannj]

DCA +1.4

NYC +0.9

BOS +1.3

ORD +2.2

ATL +2.2

IAH +2.4

DEN +2.4

PHX  +1.6

SEA -1.4

NYC

[donsutherland1]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.5      1.5      1.5       0.8    0.4     1.0        0.0      0.1     -2.3

NYC Subforum

 

[bkviking]

DCA +1.4

NYC +1.4

BOS +1.5

ORD +2.2

ATL +1.0

IAH +2.2

DEN +1.3

PHX  +1.2

SEA -0.8

NYC subforum 

[mappy]

DCA +1.3

NYC +0.9

BOS -0.6

ORD +1.0

ATL +1.9

IAH +1.3

DEN -0.9

PHX -1.3

SEA -1.8

Mid-Atlantic Subforum 

[RodneyS]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-1.4    -0.6      0.5      -1.1    -1.3     1.8        1.7     1.6    -1.6

[Scotty Lightning]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.0     1.0     0.5            0.5     1.5    1.5            0.0     1.0    0.0 

[Roger Smith]

--0.4 _ --0.6 _ --0.2 ___ --1.2 _ --1.0 _ +0.3 ___ --1.2 _ +0.1 _ --1.4

[wxdude64]

DCA: -1.4

NYC: -1.3

BOS: -1.8

ORD: -1.5

ATL: +0.3

IAH: +0.8

DEN: +1.1

PHX: +0.5

SEA: +1.1

[so_whats_happening]

Whoops late again gotta set an alarm or something

DCA +1.4

NYC +0.9

BOS-1.4

ORD-1.2

ATL +1.3

IAH+1.4

DEN+1.8

PHX+1.2

SEA -1.5

[H2Otown_WX]

DCA...NYC...BOS        IAH...ORD...ATL            PHX...DEN...SEA

+1.5...+1.2...+1.3       +2.2...+1.2...+1.6         -0.3...-0.7...-0.7

[dmillz25]

DCA: 2.0

NYC: 2.5

BOS: 2.5

ORD: -1.7

ATL: 1.5

IAH: 0.0

DEN: 2.0

PHX: 0.5

SEA: 1.5

[hudsonvalley21]

Oops sorry for lateness. got too involved with the last storm and totally forgot.

DCA +0.6

NYC +0.4

BOS +1.0

ORD +1.6

ATL +1.5

IAH +2.0

DEN +1.7

PHX  +1.1

SEA -0.4

NYC

[Roger Smith]

Table of forecasts for March 2018

Late penalties generally reduced to allow the RR to continue ... I have reduced the ones already issued at the same pace as for our SE entry, who had some medical issues at forecast time. The penalties are still sizeable enough to overcome any advantages gained by seeing later data. 

 

FORECASTER ________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

Dmillz25 __ (-12%) _NYC ______+2.0 _+2.5 _+2.5 ___ --1.7 _+1.5 __0.0 ____ +2.0 _+0.5 _+1.5

Orangeburgwx (-30%)_SE______+1.7 _--0.8 _+1.0 ___ --2.2 _+3.9 _+2.6 ____ +0.7 _--1.4 _+1.2

DonSutherland.1 ___ NYC _____ +1.5 _+1.5 _+1.5 ___ +0.8 _+0.4 _+1.0 _____ 0.0 _+0.1 _--2.3 

H2OTown_WX (-3%) N E ______+1.5 _+1.2 _+1.3 ___ +1.2 _+1.6 _+2.2 ____ --0.7 _--0.3 _--0.7

BKViking _________ NYC ______+1.4 _+1.4 _+1.5 ___ +2.2 _+1.0 _+2.2 ____+1.3 _+1.2 _--0.8

so_whats_happ (-2%) PA/NY ___+1.4 _+0.9 _--1.4 ___ --1.2 _+1.3 _+1.4 ____+1.8 _+1.2 _--1.5

wxallannj _________ NYC _____ +1.4 _+0.9 _+1.3 ___ +2.2 _+2.2 _+2.4 ____+2.4 _+1.6 _--1.4

mappy ___________ M A ______+1.3 _+0.9 _--0.6 ___ +1.0 _+1.9 _+1.3 ____--0.9 _--1.3 _--1.8

RJay _____________ NYC _____+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +2.0 _+1.5 _+2.0 ____+1.0 _+1.0 _--1.0

 

___ Consensus ______________ +1.0 _+0.9 _+0.5 ___ +0.8 _+1.5 _+1.5 ____+0.7 _+0.5 _--1.0

 

Scotty Lightning ___ PHL ______ +1.0 _+1.0 _+0.5 ___ +0.5 _+1.5 _+1.5 _____0.0 _+1.0 __0.0

Stebo ____________GL/OV_____+1.0 _+0.7 _--0.2 ___ +1.1 _+1.5 _+1.5 ____--1.0 _--1.0 _--2.0

jaxjagman _________TNV______+0.6 _+0.9 _--0.6 ___ +1.2 _+0.8 _+1.8 ___ --1.6 _+1.3 _--1.8

hudsonvalley21 (-14%) NYC ____+0.6 _+0.4 _+1.0 ___ +1.6 _+1.5 _+2.0 ____ +1.7 _+1.1 _--0.4

 

___ Normal __________________ 0.0 __0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __0.0 __ 0.0 ______ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0

 

Tom _____________ PHL ______--0.1 _--0.3 _--0.3 ___ --0.5 _+0.1 _+1.0 ____ +0.2 _+0.3 _--0.9

Roger Smith ______C + W _____ --0.4 _--0.6 _--0.2 ___--1.2 _--1.0 _+0.3 ____--1.2 _+0.1 _--1.4

RodneyS _________M A _______--1.4 _--0.6 _+0.5 ___ --1.1 _--1.3 _+1.8 ____ +1.7 _+1.6 _--1.6

wxdude64 _______ M A _______--1.4 _--1.3 _--1.8 ___ --1.5 _+0.3 _+0.8 ____ +1.1 _+0.5 _+1.1

_________________________________________________________________________________________

Consensus is median of 17 forecasts (9th ranked). 

warmest and coldest forecasts for each location are shown in color codes (red, blue)

_________________________________________________________________________________________

 

 

Updates to the snowfall contest will continue over in the February thread, and will remain there until the contest is declared final, 

then an announcement will appear in the May thread when DEN, and possibly other locations, seem to be beyond further snowfalls.

[Roger Smith]

Here's the first three reports on anomalies (in green, projections in regular type), look for updates after each seven day period to 21st then 24th, and every second day to 30th and 31st. The way this table is now arranged, you can check the actual anomalies against the NWS 7-day projections (to which I apply any perceived midnight low sort of adjustments) in the line above the reported anomalies. From now to 28th, there will be two additional reports on 24th and 26th so the 28th will be comparable to the entry on 22nd (p28d NWS) three lines above. Then I will add daily updates to end of the month. The various late month and end of month 16 day projections (now down to 10 days) appear in sequence at the end of the table and the first of these can be compared to the report for 24d, all the rest can be compared to the end of month actual anomalies. ...

________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

________ (7d) ___________ +1.4 _+2.0 _+4.4 ___ +3.3 _+1.4 _+6.4 ____+4.1 _--1.3 _--2.3

 

_8th ___ (p 14d NWS) _____--2.3 _--1.0 _ +1.1 ___ +0.6 _--2.8 _+3.6 ____+3.5 _+1.5 __0.0

________ (14d) __________--1.9 _--1.1 _ +1.3 ___ --0.1 _--2.5 _+3.3 ____+3.2e_+2.1 _+0.7

 

_15th ___(p 21d NWS) ____ --3.2 _--2.4 _--1.5 ___ --1.0 _--0.8 _+5.0 ____+3.5 __ 0.0 _+0.5

________ (21d) __________--3.4 _--2.8 _--1.0 ___ --0.7 _--0.7 _+4.4 ____+2.8e_+0.8 _+0.4

________ (24d) __________--3.8 _--2.8 _--1.5*___--1.3 _--1.0 _+4.4 ____+3.7 _+1.7 _--0.4 **

________ (26d) __________--4.1 _--2.9 _--1.8 ___ --1.4 _--1.3 _+4.8 ____+3.6 _+1.4 _--0.7 

________ (28d) __________--4.2 _--3.0 _--1.6 ___ --1.1_ --1.2 _+5.1 ____+2.9 _+1.2 _--0.6 

 

_22nd ___(p 28d NWS) ____--4.5 _--4.0 _--2.5 ___ --1.0 _--1.5 _+6.6 ____+4.0 _+0.5 __ 0.0

 

_8th_ (p24d GFS 8-16d) ___ --1.5 _--1.0 __0.0 ___ --0.5 _--2.0 _+2.5 ____ +2.0 _+0.3 __0.0 **

_15th (p31d GFS 8-16d) ___ --2.0 _--1.7 _--1.5 ___ --1.0 _--0.5 _+4.0 ____ +1.5 _--0.5 __0.0

_22nd (p31d GFS 8-10d) ___--4.0 _--3.2 _--2.5 ___ --1.0 _--1.0 _+6.0 ____ +3.5 _+1.0 _+0.2

_25th (p31d NWS 7-d) _____--3.5 _--2.7 _--1.5 ___ --1.0 _--1.0 _+5.8 ____ +3.5 _+1.5 _--0.3

_25th (p31d NWS 7-d) _____--3.0 _--2.2 _--1.0 ___ --1.0 _--0.7 _+5.8 ____ +3.0 _+1.5 _--0.3

__ scoring based on 31d

___ FINAL ANOMALIES ____ --3.2_--2.4_--1.0___--1.0_--0.8_+4.9 ____+2.3_+1.6_--0.2

Seems that IAH fell a bit short of estimates mainly because some clear spells at night allowed mins to drop below predicted values, the recent maxes have been as warm as expected. ... so this gives most of us a few extra points and leaves the question of a boosted score moot as it seems that either raw or progression scoring would yield similar values at the top end, raw scoring better towards the bottom end. DEN where we had no scoring issues had somewhat the same finish, colder nights more than daytime forecast errors, partly due to intermittent snow cover, dropped the anomalies more than already expected. Otherwise the estimates have held up quite well in fact ORD has been on the money since the first sight of day 16 on the GFS (congrats shared around NWS, GFS and RJS but mostly the first two as my role was that of data reader).  

 

_our forecast consensus ___ +1.0 _+0.9 _+0.5 ___ +0.8 _+1.5 _+1.5 ____+0.7 _+0.5 _--1.0

_our forecast errors (avg) __ +4.2 _+3.3 _+1.5 ___ +1.8 _+2.3 _--3.3 ____--1.6 _--1.1 _--0.8

(analysis -- we were mostly warministas in the east, even our closest forecasts were short of the cold mark set by DCA and NYC, we had a few alert to BOS, ORD and ATL outcomes, but we showed a smaller cold bias in the west and our best forecasts were considerably below the actual value for IAH).

previous and current notes:

15th _ The 7d NWS forecasts used on the 8th (line 2) have verified (line 3) within 0.4 deg which is considered excellent.

The GFS forecasts made on the 8th (line 5) appear to be in the ballpark but perhaps a bit conservative given the new projections, albeit these are not directly comparable to any other line in the table but the first three days of the new GFS estimate would give values from the 21st to 24th that are generally about 1 to 2 deg more variable with same signs. 

At the moment the end of month projections are a little too uncertain to bother starting a provisional scoring table but the consensus score from those values (line 6) would be 566 out of 900, so if you're closer to the provisionals than our consensus, you would score that much more (at this early estimate). I think there's probably more room for consensus to improve than to lose ground too, coldish looking GFS days 8 to 16 may turn out to bring some warming opportunities near end of month that are not in the works as of today. Heavy snow cover in New England on the other hand could be a source for colder anomalies near end of month if any higher pressure is not well supported by rising thickness and upper temp profiles. 

22nd _ The NWS forecasts for this past week were very close at an average error of only 0.4 deg, none greater than 1 deg. The coming week looks quite cold in the east, near normal for ORD and warm for DEN and IAH, closer to average for PHX and SEA. The end of the month anomalies required three days from the GFS (29th to 31st) and the trends there are similar except warmer in PHX and SEA. At this point it looks as though coldest forecasts will score highest in the east but a more random selection will prevail elsewhere. Will post the preliminary scoring to track how we're all doing. 

25th _ The anomaly for BOS is shown with an * because the 20th and 21st are not in the table and the value could be a bit lower based on the rest of the data and the two days from their climate reports (they average -6).  The value given (-1.2) is for the 22 days available so my estimate for the 24 days is -1.5 deg as shown. The double ** at the end of the 24d row alerts you to another row generated on the 8th from the first anomaly tracker plus 7-day NWS and 8 to 16 day GFS estimate (several rows lower in the table). The average error for these was 1.4 deg but were either same sign or involved a zero forecast and small negative anomaly (SEA, BOS). These "forecasts" score 72/100 on average which is a bit higher than our current leader (with slight benefit of boosted scoring at IAH in his case). The two locations (DCA, IAH) that were subject to boosted scores (where raw max score is below 60) have edged closer to normal scoring but if they reach normal scoring most "boosted" scores would remain very similar, there is actually only a few points gained by the field at present time. IAH scoring is checked against raw score and in some lower scores the raw score is higher so therefore placed in the scoring table. NYC has moved a little further away from needing the boost and BOS scores all went up by 20 (or whatever penalties provide in the 15-19 range). PHX looking quite warm at end of the month and I worked that out to be 0.5 higher than previously, some scores falling and some rising. SEA now looking cold at end of month and will stay a bit below normal although it could edge above briefly by 28th-29th before falling back. Next update on 27th based on 26 days. 

27th _ Slight changes to eastern locations and ORD, DEN all running a bit warmer than previously estimated. This will mainly boost all scores. 

29th __ Have updated the anomalies but left the provisionals unchanged. Next report for end of month.

31st-1st April __ Final anomalies are now all posted and scoring tables are adjusted where necessary. 

[Roger Smith]

Final scoring for March, 2018

At this point, only IAH may qualify for a small mesaure of boosted scoring since no raw score is above 60. DCA and NYC squeaked in with a few raw scores above 60 and therefore we are all stuck with our relatively low raw scores there. Late penalties are only applied after these scoring rules  are applied. With 17 forecasts, the sequence is 60, 55, 50, 45, 40, 36, 32, 28, 24, 20, 16, 12, 09, 06, 04, 02, 00. Any scores that would be higher by normal scoring rules than their value in that sequence are left where they stand. When the progression is used, Normal and consensus can be scored at other values to fit them to the contestant scores. 

 

FORECASTER _______________DCA_NYC_BOS__east___ORD_ATL_IAH__cent___e/c___DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL

 

RodneyS _________M A _______64 _ 64 _ 70 __ 198 ___ 98 _ 90 _ 38 __226 __424 __88 _100 _72 __ 260 ____ 684

wxdude64 _______ M A _______64 _ 78 _ 84__ 226 ___ 90 _ 78 _ 18 __ 186 __ 412  __76 _ 78 _ 74 __ 228 ____ 640

Tom _____________ PHL ______38 _ 58 _ 86 __ 182 ___ 90 _ 82 _ 22 __ 194 __ 376 __ 58 _ 74 _ 86 __ 218 ____ 594

Roger Smith ______C + W _____44 _ 64 _ 84 __ 192 ___ 96 _ 96_ 08 __ 200 __ 392 __ 30 _ 70 _ 76 __ 176 ____ 568

___so_whats_happening (-2%)_ 08 _ 34 _ 92 __ 134 ___ 96 _ 58 _ 30 __ 184 __ 318 __ 90 _ 92 _ 74 __ 256 _ 574

so_whats_happ (-2%) PA/NY ___08 _ 33 _ 90 __ 131 ___ 94 _ 57 _ 29 __ 180 __ 311 __ 88 _ 90 _ 73 __ 251 ____ 562

 

___ Normal _________________ 36 _ 52 _ 80 __ 168 ___ 80 _ 84 _ 02 __ 166 __ 334 __ 54 _ 68 _ 96 __ 218 ____ 552

 

Scotty Lightning ___ PHL ______ 16 _ 32 _ 70 __ 118 ___ 70 _ 54 _ 32 __ 156 __ 274 __ 54 _ 88 _ 96__ 238 ____ 512

wxallannj _________ NYC _____ 08 _ 34 _ 54 __ 096 ___ 36 _ 40 _ 55 __ 131 __ 227 __ 98_100_ 76 __274 ____ 501

 

___ Consensus ______________ 16 _ 34 _ 70 __ 120 ___ 64 _ 54 _ 32 __ 150 __ 270 __ 68 _ 78 _ 84 __ 230 ____ 500

 

jaxjagman _________TNV______24 _ 34 _ 92 __ 150 ___ 56 _ 68 _ 38 __ 162 __ 312 __ 22 _ 94 _ 68 __ 184 ____ 496

BKViking _________ NYC ______08 _ 24 _ 50 __ 082 ___ 36 _ 64 _ 50 __ 150 __ 232 __ 80 _ 92 _ 88 __ 260 ____ 492

RJay _____________ NYC _____16 _ 32 _ 60 __ 108 ___ 40 _ 54 _ 42 __ 136 __ 244 __ 74 _ 88 _ 84 __ 246 ____ 490

___hudsonvalley21 (-14%) _____24 _ 44 _ 60 __ 128 ___ 48 _ 54 _ 42 __ 144 __ 272 __ 88 _ 90 _ 96 __ 274 _ 546

hudsonvalley21 (-14%) NYC ____21 _ 38 _ 52 __ 111 ___ 41 _ 46 _ 36 __ 123 __ 234 __ 76 _ 77 _ 83 __ 236 ____ 470

Stebo ____________GL/OV_____16 _ 38 _ 84 __ 138 ___ 58 _ 54 _ 32 __ 144 __ 282 __ 34 _ 48 _ 64 __ 146 ____ 428 

___H2OTown_WX (-3%) ______ 06 _ 28 _ 54 __ 088 ___ 56 _ 52 _ 50 __ 158 __ 246 __ 40 _ 62 _ 90 __ 192 _ 438

H2OTown_WX (-3%) N E ______06 _ 27 _ 53 __ 086 ___ 54 _ 50 _ 49 __ 153 __ 239 __ 39 _ 60 _ 87 __ 186 ____ 425

DonSutherland.1 ___ NYC _____ 06 _ 22 _ 50 __ 078 ___ 64 _ 76 _ 22 __ 162 __ 240 __ 54 _ 70 _ 58 __ 182 ____ 422 

mappy ___________ M A ______16 _ 34 _ 92 __ 136 ___ 60 _ 46 _ 28 __ 134 __ 270 __ 36 _ 42 _ 68 __ 146 ____ 416

__Dmillz25 __ (-12%)_________00 _ 02 _ 30 __ 032 ___ 86 _ 54 _ 02 __ 142 __ 174  __ 94 _ 78 _ 66 __ 238 _ 412

Dmillz25 _____ (-12%)_NYC___ 00 _ 02 _ 26 __ 028 ___ 76 _ 48 _ 02 __ 126 __ 154 __ 83 _ 69 _ 58 __ 210 ____ 364

___Orangeburgwx (-30%)_____ 02 _ 68 _ 60 __ 130 ___ 76 _ 06 _ 60 __ 142 __ 272 __ 68 _ 40 _ 72 __ 180 _ 452 

Orangeburgwx (-30%)_SE_____ 01 _ 48 _ 42 __ 091 ___ 53 _ 04 _ 42 __ 099 __ 190 __ 48 _ 28 _ 50 __ 126 ____ 316

_________________________________________________________________________________________

Regional Rumble -- provisional scoring -- March 2018

 

REGION ___________________ Eastern __ Central __ Western ____ TOTAL

 

Mid Atlantic __________________226 _____ 226 _____ 260 ________ 712

PHL ________________________182 _____ 194 _____ 238 ________ 614

Central + Western ____________ 192 _____ 200 _____ 176 ________ 568

PA / NY _____________________131 _____ 180 _____ 251 ________ 562

___ Normal __________________168 _____ 166 _____ 218 ________ 552

NYC _______________________ 111 _____ 162 _____ 274 ________ 547

___ Consensus _______________120 _____ 150 _____ 230 ________ 500

TN valley ___________________ 150 _____ 162 _____ 184 ________ 496

Great Lakes / Ohio Valley ______ 138 _____ 144 _____ 146 ________ 428

New England_________________086 _____ 153 _____ 186 ________ 425

Southeast ___________________091 _____ 099 _____ 126 ________ 316

 

 

[Roger Smith]

--- -- <<<<==== Annual Updated Scoring Jan - Mar 2018 ====>>>> -- ----

 

Part One: Eastern and Central (Original Six) 

... best scores, first six numbers are for six locations, next two for eastern and central totals, then months won (red)

... station totals in red indicate best total scores, eastern and central in bold indicate best subtotals.

... when normal or consensus have high scores, forecasters with high scores also shown

 

FORECASTER _______ DCA _NYC _BOS ___ east ____ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ cent ___ TOTAL __ Best scores

 

___Normal _________ 172 _179 _225 ____ 576 ____ 242 _159 _017 ____ 418 ____ 994 ___ 000 100 .0.0 

 

so_whats_happening _107 _152 _180 ____ 439 ____ 194 _205 _129 ____ 518 ____957 ___ 000 111 .0.1 __ FEB

Scotty Lightning (SD) _155 _159 _212 ____ 526 ____ 212 _131 _059 ____ 402 ____ 928 ___ 000 100 .0.1

Roger Smith ________170 _172 _152 ____ 494 ____ 172 _180 _046 ____ 398 ____ 892 ___ 111 010 .1.0

wxdude64 _________ 162 _182 _182 ____ 526____ 154 _156 _042 ____ 352 ____ 878 ___ 110 000 .1.0

hudsonvalley21 _____ 123 _140 _134 ____ 397 ____ 119 _191 _140 ____ 450 ____ 847 ___

jaxjagman _________ 110 _100 _164 ____ 374 ____ 116 _190 _120 ____ 426 ____ 800 ___ 001 000 .0.0

DonSutherland.1 ___  106 _118 _124 ____ 348 ____ 090 _200 _121 ____ 411 ____ 759 ___

Mercurial (2/3) ______146 _150 _133 ____ 429 ____ 110 _132 _084 ____ 326 ____ 755 ___ 110 000 .1.0 __ JAN

mappy ____________076 _105 _159 ____ 340 ____ 128 _146 _136 ____ 410 ____ 750 ___ 001 000 .0.0

 

___Consensus ______099 _117 _142 ____ 358 ____ 122 _168 _099 ____ 389 ____ 747 ___

 

BKViking _________ _107 _144 _153 ____ 404 ____ 087 _146 _106 ____ 339 ____ 743 ___

Stebo ____________ 074 _094 _130 ____ 298 ____ 140 _156 _120 ____ 416 ____ 714 ___ 000 001 .0.0

RJay _____________ 078 _114 _135 ____ 327 ____ 092 _160 _119 ____ 371 ____ 698 ___

wxallannj __________084 _112 _122 ____ 318 ____ 096 _148 _127 ____ 371 ____ 689 ___ 000 001

RodneyS __________ 100 _098 _102 ____ 300 ____ 098 _172 _080 ____ 350 ____ 650 ___ 100 100 .0.1 __ MAR

Tom _____________ 074 _116 _140 ____ 330 ____ 092 _168 _054 ____ 314 ____ 644 ___

H2O_Town_WX ____ 086 _105 _155 ____ 346 ____ 158 _052 _051 ____ 261 ____ 607 ___ 001 000 .0.0

dmillz25 __________ 085 _069 _070 ____ 224 ____ 127 _156 _090 ____ 373 ____ 597 ___ 000 010 .0.0

H2O ___(2/3) ______094 _091 _071 ____ 256 ____ 056 _125 _072 ____ 253 ____ 509 ___ 000 010 .0.0

nrgJeff _ (2/3) _____ 116 _092 _064 ____ 272 ____ 004 _095 _037 ____ 136 ____ 408 ___

Orangeburgwx _(2/3) 005 _069 _087 ____ 161 ____ 073 _014 _069 ____ 156 ____ 317 ___

buckeyefan (1 mo J)_ 050 _066 _048 ____ 164 ____ 018 _092 _036 ____ 146 ____ 310 ___

tnweathernut(1 mo J)_067_056 _036 ____ 159 ____ 029 _067 _023 ____ 119 ____ 278 ___

CPcantmeasuresnow_ 002 _000 _000 ____ 002 ____ 038 _008 _040 ____ 086 ____ 088 ___

_________ (1 mo F) _^^

note: all shown (2/3) missed March except Orangeburgwx who missed January.

 

Part Two: Western and All Nine contests

... best total scores in red for three locations, best scores in months shown after total score, high western totals

for months in red ... all nine totals are shown with ranks, order of table is western scoring

 

FORECASTER __________ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ____ TOTAL (west) __ best scores (mo) ____ All Nine (= rank)

Scotty Lightning (SD) ____ 134 _ 192 _ 210 _____ 536 __________ 0 0 1 _____________1464(= 1)

 

__Normal ______________124 _ 172 _ 190 _____ 486 __________ 0 1 1 _____________1480  (= 1) __ FEB

 

so_whats_happening _____132 _ 191 _ 133 _____ 456 __________ 0 0 0 _____________1423 (= 2) __ FEB

BKViking _______________098 _ 179 _ 170 _____ 447 __________ 0 0 0 _____________1190 (= 6)

Tom __________________ 126 _ 170 _ 144 _____ 440 __________ 0 0 0 _____________1084 (=12)

hudsonvalley21 _________ 108 _ 155 _ 165 _____ 428 __________ 0 0 0 _____________1275 (= 4)

Roger Smith ____________104 _ 158 _ 152 _____ 414 __________ 0 0 0 __ Jan _______1306 (= 3)

wxallannj ______________ 098 _ 178 _ 142 _____ 414 __________ 1 1 0 __ Mar _______1103 (= 9)

 

__ Consensus __________ 098 _ 162 _ 154 _____ 414 __________ 0 0 0 _____________1161 (= 8)

 

DonSutherland.1 ________ 124 _ 130 _ 148 _____ 402 __________ 0 0 1 __ Jan _______1161 (= 8)

Orangeburgwx (2/3)______146 _ 120 _ 134 _____ 400 __________ 1 1 1 __ Feb _______ 717 (=19)

RJay __________________076 _ 152 _ 158 _____ 386 __________ 0 0 0 _____________1084 (=10)

wxdude64 _____________ 110 _ 124 _ 146 _____ 382 __________ 0 0 0 _____________1260 (= 5)

RodneyS_______________ 088 _ 182 _ 108 _____ 378 __________ 0 1 0 _____________1028 (=13) __ MAR

H2OTown__WX _________ 053 _ 180 _ 139 _____ 372 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 979 (=16)

jaxjagman _____________ 074 _ 154 _ 138 _____ 366 __________ 0 0 0 _____________1166 (= 7)

dmillz25 _______________ 083 _ 141 _ 092 _____ 316 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 913 (=17)

Stebo _________________ 058 _ 142 _ 094 _____ 294 __________ 0 0 0 _____________1008 (=14)

Mercurial __ (2/3) _______ 080 _ 120 _ 078 _____ 278 __________ 1 0 0 _____________ 1033 (=11) __ JAN

mappy _________________044 _ 114 _ 091 _____ 249 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 999 (=15)

nrgJeff ____ _(2/3) ______ 042 _ 084 _ 060 _____ 186 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 594 (=20)

H2O ____ (2/3) _________ 052 _ 082 _ 047 _____ 181 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 690 (=18)

tnweathernut (1 mo Jan) __045 _ 058 _ 050 _____ 153 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 431 (=22)

buckeyewx __(1 mo Jan) __042 _ 034 _ 046 _____ 122 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 432 (=21)

CPcantmeasuresnow (1-F)_ 000 _ 030 _ 012 _____ 042 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 130 (=23)

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Regional Rumble (Total scores Jan-Mar) 

 

Region __________________ Eastern __ Central __ Western ____ TOTALS 

 

Central + Western __________ 646 _____ 526 _____ 460 ________1632

PHL ______________________ 590 _____ 440 _____ 560 ________1590

NYC ______________________453 _____ 489 _____ 579 ________1521

Mid Atlantic ________________564 _____ 502 _____ 455 ________1521

 

___Normal ________________ 576 _____ 418 _____ 486 ________1480

 

PA / NY ___________________439 _____ 528 _____ 456 ________1423

TN Valley _________________ 422 _____ 426 _____ 376 ________1224

 

___ Consensus _____________358 _____ 389 _____ 414 ________1161

 

Southeast _________________ 325 _____ 302 _____ 522 ________1149

Great Lakes Ohio valley ______ 298 _____ 416 _____ 294 ________1008

New England _______________346 _____ 261 _____ 372 ________ 979

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Roger Smith]

Extreme forecast update March 2018

For March, six locations qualified. This makes a total of 20/27 for the year to date.

DCA (-3.2) and NYC (-2.4) were colder than all forecasts, lowest forecasts were -1.4 DCA (wxdude64 and RodneyS) and --1.3 NYC (wxdude64). 

BOS (-1.0) narrowly missed qualifying as third lowest forecasts were high score. 

ORD (-1.0) was not close to being an extreme forecast.

ATL (-0.8) was a win for Roger Smith (-1.0) and a loss for RodneyS (-1.3).

IAH (-4.9) was a win for wxallannj (-2.4) and a "no decision" for Orangeburgwx (-2.6) who was not high score due to late penalty.

DEN (-2.3) was also a win for wxallannj (-2.4).

PHX (-1.6) was a shared win for wxallannj and RodneyS. 

SEA (-0.2) was not close to being an extreme forecast. 

 

Extreme Forecasts wins and losses

 

Roger Smith __________ 4-0

Orangeburgwx ________ 3-0*

wxallannj _____________3-0

so_whats_happening ___ 2-0

wxdude64 ____________ 2-0

RodneyS _____________ 2-1

__ Normal ____________ 2-1

DonSutherland1 ________1-0

Mercurial _____________ 1-0

NRG Jeff ______________1-0

Stebo ________________ 1-0

H2OTown_wx _________ 1-1

Scotty Lightning (SD)____1-1

* no decision (Mar for IAH)