MJO812 Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: The short term westward correction has been impressive this year. The ridge to our east always ends up stronger than the models forecast. Not sure with the negative nao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Euro control has 8 + for the NYC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Well I guess my call from last week that this was a legit threat is going to work out. We can thank the last storm for brining down what ever cold air is to our north. Remember it was 60 prior to this current storm. We also now have very thick snow cover to our north. It’s still going to be a challage for the coast but just inland has a very good chance at a warning event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Not liking the westward leaning GEFS and EPS. Although the 12z GEFS is slightly east of 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 28 minutes ago, bluewave said: The 96 hour Euro was too weak with the WAR for yesterday's storm and the nao was even more negative than it will be this week. Chris there's nothing but negatives out over the Atlantic now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Upton biting for Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 NYZ072-040915- NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)- 325 PM EST SAT MAR 3 2018 TUESDAY NIGHT CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE EVENING, THEN SNOW LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT. WEDNESDAY SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING, THEN SNOW AND RAIN LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT MOSTLY CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY, MAINLY IN THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: A piece of that perma-ridge is still hanging on just east of New England. Yeh but I think it will help actually keeping the SW roll underneath. I would love to be N and W without a great airmass in place , but although not optimal this airmass could be doable if the you get enough deepening aloft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 I just hope I get power back before this next one gets here. Pretty good chance I won't though, they're saying Wednesday is the best case scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Mount Holly more bullish on all snow - 24 hour plus event NJZ012-040900- MIDDLESEX- INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW BRUNSWICK 331 PM EST SAT MAR 3 2018 TUESDAY NIGHT CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE EVENING, THEN SNOW LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. WEDNESDAY SNOW. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT SNOW, COLD. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT. THURSDAY PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 I’ve been without power for over 24 hours and out of the loop; what’s this about Wednesday now? What are we looking at?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Someone going to start a thread on Tues/Wed or too soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 3, 2018 Author Share Posted March 3, 2018 1 minute ago, sferic said: Someone going to start a thread on Tues/Wed or too soon? I would wait until tomorrow after the 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 The Wed event could be nice if it takes a track off the coast, should be cold enough for mostly snow in that case. I’m wary though of the last minute amped trends we’ve been seeing, that could force a track on the coast and cause mainly rain for the city/coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 3, 2018 Author Share Posted March 3, 2018 11 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The Wed event could be nice if it takes a track off the coast, should be cold enough for mostly snow in that case. I’m wary though of the last minute amped trends we’ve been seeing, that could force a track on the coast and cause mainly rain for the city/coast. While I am obviously hoping that does not happen I can see that being a concern as Bluewave stated. Hopefully I am able to cash in snow wise with Wednesdays coastal storm and the potential one around the 12th to end the season on a high note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 13 minutes ago, sferic said: Someone going to start a thread on Tues/Wed or too soon? We beat u guys to it in the philly section. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 17 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The Wed event could be nice if it takes a track off the coast, should be cold enough for mostly snow in that case. I’m wary though of the last minute amped trends we’ve been seeing, that could force a track on the coast and cause mainly rain for the city/coast. The downstream setup at 500 argues this could come west for sure. Probably as far as tracking almost over top of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The downstream setup at 500 argues this could come west for sure. Probably as far as tracking almost over top of NYC. I agree, looked pretty amped and south to north upper air flow. Hopefully this can stay offshore but it can easily trend west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 3, 2018 Author Share Posted March 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The downstream setup at 500 argues this could come west for sure. Probably as far as tracking almost over top of NYC. That would pretty much burn the coast if that happens, the way this winter has gone I could see it happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 And gfs just came way west, just offshore at hr 96, but it then pulls northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: And gfs just came way west, just offshore at hr 96 And still delivers this : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: And still delivers this : It did cut back at the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: It did cut back at the coast 850's are no problem from Central NJ Northbound - LP stays off the coast - intensity will also play a role like yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: Euro control has 8 + for the NYC area Monmouth county will do better. There I said it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Just noise in my opinion. Let this play out the potential for a 6-12 inch snowstorm is there and that’s all that matters. The one after looks even better with the high position in the perfect spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 1 hour ago, NEG NAO said: Mount Holly more bullish on all snow - 24 hour plus event NJZ012-040900- MIDDLESEX- INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW BRUNSWICK 331 PM EST SAT MAR 3 2018 TUESDAY NIGHT CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE EVENING, THEN SNOW LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. WEDNESDAY SNOW. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT SNOW, COLD. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT. THURSDAY PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING Mt Holly forecast doesn't seem to cover us well, nor does the Upton one.....but I think my area of Middlesex is better suited to Upton a lot of times. I use the Rutgers forecast sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 That 18z GFS was actually a solid shot of snow over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 NWS for coastal CT Sunday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Wind chill values between 25 and 30. North wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Monday Partly sunny, with a high near 42. Wind chill values between 20 and 30. North wind 9 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 29. North wind around 6 mph. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 43. Tuesday Night Snow likely, mainly after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Wednesday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 40. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Wednesday Night Snow likely, mainly before 9pm. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 could be a better chance of snow for the NYC area, but still concerned of a repeat of yesterday -- need to keep an eye on the track creeping westward.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 41degs., or about 2degs. AN. CMC is nutty at 15" for us on Wed. GFS is 6". The only way it gets cold enough for snow, is during the storm itself, by adiabatic cooling. We are due for something. The full potential since Feb. 1 has been 60 to 80 inches of snow on 8" of liquid. We got 5" of snow. Assuming 1/3 of precip. at this time of the year is snow we were cheated by a factor of 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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