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March 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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Well I guess my call from last week that this was a legit threat is going to work out. We can thank the last storm for brining down what ever cold air is to our north. Remember it was 60 prior to this current storm. We also now have very thick snow cover to our north. It’s still going to be a challage for the coast but just inland has a very good chance at a warning event 

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NYZ072-040915-  
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-  
325 PM EST SAT MAR 3 2018

TUESDAY NIGHT  
CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE EVENING, THEN  
SNOW LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS  
IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT.
   
WEDNESDAY
 
SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING, THEN SNOW AND RAIN  
LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF  
PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT.
   
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 
MOSTLY CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY, MAINLY IN THE  
EVENING. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT. 
   
 

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8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

A piece of that perma-ridge is still hanging on just east of New England. 

Yeh but I think it will help actually keeping the SW roll underneath.

 

I would love to be N and W without a great airmass in place , but although not optimal this airmass could be doable if the you get enough deepening aloft 

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Mount Holly more bullish on all snow - 24 hour plus event

NJZ012-040900-  
MIDDLESEX-  

INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW BRUNSWICK  
331 PM EST SAT MAR 3 2018  
  

TUESDAY NIGHT  
CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE EVENING, THEN  
SNOW LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS  
IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT.
   
WEDNESDAY
 
SNOW. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE  
OF SNOW 80 PERCENT.
   
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 
SNOW, COLD. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE MID  
30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT.
   
THURSDAY
 
PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING

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11 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The Wed event could be nice if it takes a track off the coast, should be cold enough for mostly snow in that case. I’m wary though of the last minute amped trends we’ve been seeing, that could force a track on the coast and cause mainly rain for the city/coast. 

While I am obviously hoping that does not happen I can see that being a concern as Bluewave stated. Hopefully I am able to cash in snow wise with Wednesdays coastal storm and the potential one around the 12th to end the season on a high note.

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17 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The Wed event could be nice if it takes a track off the coast, should be cold enough for mostly snow in that case. I’m wary though of the last minute amped trends we’ve been seeing, that could force a track on the coast and cause mainly rain for the city/coast. 

The downstream setup at 500 argues this could come west for sure.  Probably as far as tracking almost over top of NYC.  

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5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The downstream setup at 500 argues this could come west for sure.  Probably as far as tracking almost over top of NYC.  

I agree, looked pretty amped and south to north upper air flow. Hopefully this can stay offshore but it can easily trend west. 

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1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

Mount Holly more bullish on all snow - 24 hour plus event

NJZ012-040900-  
MIDDLESEX-  

INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW BRUNSWICK  
331 PM EST SAT MAR 3 2018  
  

TUESDAY NIGHT  
CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE EVENING, THEN  
SNOW LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS  
IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT.
   
WEDNESDAY
 
SNOW. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE  
OF SNOW 80 PERCENT.
   
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 
SNOW, COLD. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE MID  
30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT.
   
THURSDAY
 
PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING

Mt Holly forecast doesn't seem to cover us well, nor does the Upton one.....but I think my area of Middlesex is better suited to Upton a lot of times. I use the Rutgers forecast sometimes.

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NWS for coastal CT

Sunday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Wind chill values between 25 and 30. North wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.
Monday
Partly sunny, with a high near 42. Wind chill values between 20 and 30. North wind 9 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 29. North wind around 6 mph.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 43.
Tuesday Night
Snow likely, mainly after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Wednesday
Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 40. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Wednesday Night
Snow likely, mainly before 9pm. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
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Next 8 days averaging 41degs., or about 2degs. AN.

CMC is nutty at 15" for us on Wed.  GFS is 6".  The only way it gets cold enough for snow, is during the storm itself, by adiabatic cooling.

We are due for something.  The full potential since Feb. 1 has been 60 to 80 inches of snow on 8" of liquid.  We got 5" of snow.  Assuming 1/3 of precip. at this time of the year is snow we were cheated by a factor of 5.

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