PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 26 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: So is the consensus thought for the coastal tri state area a rain event for the next system? Any more chances or spring time? The consensus is for snow And a bigger one by day 10 / 11 to end the pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 18 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: We all snowed yesterday, even though the NWS showed all rain. It the next storm is east of us and its a cooler airmass, why would it not snow and stick? Given the above, why is it a definite that the next storm will be all rain? We just had a snowstorm 2 weeks ago with a worse airmass. Upton' s forecast was Rain and Snow with little accumulation and that's what verified in NYC- the storm 2 Saturdays ago was a direct result of perfect timing - a fresh injection of colder air and then a system attacking it very soon after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: The consensus is for snow And a bigger one by day 10 / 11 to end the pattern consensus from who ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: consensus from who ? GEFS EPS Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: GEFS EPS Canadian I think yesterdays storm still forecasted to be strolling around the western Atlantic for a few days is going to have some type of influence on how the next system develops and performs - also I don't think the mid week system will be all snow especially at the start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: I think yesterdays storm still forecasted to be strolling around the western Atlantic for a few days is going to have some type of influence on how the next system develops and performs - also I don't think the mid week system will be all snow especially at the start I should have preferenced that although all the models snow to the coast I am more sure about it snowing just N and W again Hate to be definitive 5 days out , But I do like the track and there should be enough cold air around to make this interesting I do like the potential for a bigger widespread day 10/11 system before the pattern fades and baseball is the focus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 58 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: So is the consensus thought for the coastal tri state area a rain event for the next system? Any more chances or spring time? Historically the coldest and snowiest weather in March occurs after the AO reaches its peak negative value. The chance of more snow will be much higher than normal for the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 3, 2018 Author Share Posted March 3, 2018 At the very least it will be stormy regardless if we get rain or snow. At some point I would think flooding would become more of a concern if we keep getting these high precipitation events as we officially head into spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 27 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: I should have preferenced that although all the models snow to the coast I am more sure about it snowing just N and W again Hate to be definitive 5 days out , But I do like the track and there should be enough cold air around to make this interesting I do like the potential for a bigger widespread day 10/11 system before the pattern fades and baseball is the focus Based on your calls from this winter this makes me nervous(your accuracy has been impressive). I like the fact that there is an end to this winter in sight. I am aggressively rooting for you to be wrong-no disrespect. Actually tons of respect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 11 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: At the very least it will be stormy regardless if we get rain or snow. At some point I would think flooding would become more of a concern if we keep getting these high precipitation events as we officially head into spring. Islip just set the record for the wettest 2/1-3/2. Essentially a regular month period since February is only 28 days. #1...9.56"...2018 #2...6.62"...2008 #3...6.21"...1971 #4...5.91"...2013 #5...5.90"...1979 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 1 hour ago, NEG NAO said: Upton' s forecast was Rain and Snow with little accumulation and that's what verified in NYC- the storm 2 Saturdays ago was a direct result of perfect timing - a fresh injection of colder air and then a system attacking it very soon after. I think we are probably done for our area; look at yesterday, it just seems we are not in the prime spot this year even with a big system like Jan 4. If there is any threat of rain with this system i don't think we will have much to worry about ( in terms of snow ) but man I hate these cold rains. No one likes that kind of weather. Well, I suppose some people do. Some people like raw chili peppers too. As always, I remind all that my opinions are just that, are not based on any kind of science, which I do not understand ( full disclosure ) and should not be taken as anything more than the musings of a middle aged guy who has seen a lot of winters. And who can't wait for fishing season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 60 day precip totals NYC: 10.24" EWR: 10.2" LGA: 10.4" JFK: 10.48" TTN: 9.46" PHL: 10.29" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 1 hour ago, NEG NAO said: Upton' s forecast was Rain and Snow with little accumulation and that's what verified in NYC- the storm 2 Saturdays ago was a direct result of perfect timing - a fresh injection of colder air and then a system attacking it very soon after. Agreed for NYC. However for my locatio in coastal CT it was for pure rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 39 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: Based on your calls from this winter this makes me nervous(your accuracy has been impressive). I like the fact that there is an end to this winter in sight. I am aggressively rooting for you to be wrong-no disrespect. Actually tons of respect You have 2 shots a 2 very big systems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 10 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: You have 2 shots a 2 very big systems 12Z GFS OP shows SECS at least for mid week - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 12Z GEM shows SECS inland - mix along the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: 12Z GEM shows SECS inland - mix along the coast Hopefully the NAO and AO being negative keeps it a little farther off the coast so we all can score Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 12 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: 12Z GFS OP shows SECS at least for mid week - Yeh , I like 2 big events ( who , what , not sure ) then we will break the pattern down But the next 10 days could be fun , I hope this ends in a big way for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: So is the consensus thought for the coastal tri state area a rain event for the next system? Any more chances or spring time? My early thinking is that the secondary will develop and rapidly take over. This time, a mainly snow event appears more likely for areas that largely missed out yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Just now, donsutherland1 said: My early thinking is that the secondary will develop and rapidly take over. This time, a mainly snow event appears more likely for areas that largely missed out yesterday. Thanks Don! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: My early thinking is that the secondary will develop and rapidly take over. This time, a mainly snow event appears more likely for areas that largely missed out yesterday. Don, to build off what you said, 12Z GFS and ICON are very snowy with nice tracks. GGEM is much warmer and would imply more rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 When will we get a thread started up for next weeks threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 29 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Don, to build off what you said, 12Z GFS and ICON are very snowy with nice tracks. GGEM is much warmer and would imply more rain. CMC mean is further east than the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 25 minutes ago, allgame830 said: When will we get a thread started up for next weeks threat? Start One Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 1 hour ago, NEG NAO said: 12Z GEM shows SECS inland - mix along the coast Check out the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Beautiful mid level tracks on 12z Euro for Wed. Looks like a legit threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 The Wednesday Miller B threat is definitely legit. It’s going to snow. Just a few things to keep in mind, it’s March, it’s all during the day, the airmass is marginally cold, cold enough to snow for sure but marginal. We don’t have an arctic airmass in place like last March, that’s continental polar. 10:1 ratios may be too high, sun angle and longer days March 7th is an issue, we will need heavy rates to really accumulate given it being a daytime storm, it will be a wet snow. What the snowmaps show, is probably not what is actually going to fall given the factors I mentioned, most likely they will have to be trimmed; it’s not going to be S+ the entire time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: The storm from yesterday lingering just to the east may be the wild card with this. It may force more of a hugger rather than a true benchmark track. We probably won't know how much further west this can come for another day or two. I think we can get away with a close to the coast track as long as it's not inland due to lower SSTs than in Dec/Jan. I'm liking this threat though, I think it threads the needle just enough for us to get some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 12Z Euro has a SECS at least for mid week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, bluewave said: Has a bunch of members that track right over Long Island. My hunch tells me the interior cashes in again. They've had the hot hand lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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