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March 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

This storm is looking less and less impressive with each passing model run anyway. The speed has increased to the point that the block doesn't really setup until the system is too far offshore on the 12z GFS.

The first storm misses us on most guidance now.

We're not gonna miss this storm. 

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5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Could end up being just an ordinary rainstorm away from the coast. 

If the first storm misses us to the South, we will just be left with whatever falls as the 500mb low slides by which would still be significant, but highly dependent on the track of that low. 

We really want something like the 06z GFS which had the first system tracking much further North.

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Looks as if the models are saying we won't see any cold air until around March 8th, and even then it's probably just a brief cold shot. A lot of people were hoping a strong blocking pattern would mean a cold and favorable for snow pattern for early-mid March, but unfortunately that appears to not be the case. I'm not saying we won't see a snowstorm. We pulled off a snowstorm during a blowtorch pattern in February, so anything can happen. But right now it's not looking very good.

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1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

If the first storm misses us to the South, we will just be left with whatever falls as the 500mb low slides by which would still be significant, but highly dependent on the track of that low. 

We really want something like the 06z GFS which had the first system tracking much further North.

Here we go again with the theme of events getting less impressive as we draw closer, this has been reoccurring over and over since November. I guess we’re going to continue this into March. If we are going to see anymore snow, it needs to happen by 3/9 in my opinion. The pattern will be shifting in the north PAC and I think we are torching by St. Patrick’s Day weekend. 

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11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Here we go again with the theme of events getting less impressive as we draw closer, this has been reoccurring over and over since November. I guess we’re going to continue this into March. If we are going to see anymore snow, it needs to happen by 3/9 in my opinion. The pattern will be shifting in the north PAC and I think we are torching by St. Patrick’s Day weekend. 

@Snow88 kept wishing for a further and further South track and he got one. So far South that we only get the precip associated with the 500mb low on a lot of model runs.

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LOL, I agree that the storm on the Euro is probably mostly snow, especially for the interior, but surface temps are once again in the mid 30's during the height of the storm.

I wouldn't be throwing out numbers like 18-24" when you don't have a cold airmass to work with. This would probably end up similar to March 2017.

5a94601912863.png

 

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8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

LOL, I agree that the storm on the Euro is probably mostly snow, especially for the interior, but surface temps are once again in the mid 30's during the height of the storm.

I wouldn't be throwing out numbers like 18-24" when you don't have a cold airmass to work with. This would probably end up similar to March 2017.

5a94601912863.png

 

It’s nothing like March 17. Terrible comment. That storm had ample cold air. The issue at the coast was the track.

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3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I’m glad it’s silly when pretty much every respectable meteorologist in the regoin agree. They tend to avoid this board because of comments just like that.

Didn’t mean to offend. I’m not an expert, just seen this story play out often. A fantasy storm getting everyone excited only to fizzle out.

yes, it seems pattern is very good for a potential storm. Let’s hope nothing changes. 

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2 minutes ago, mike1984 said:

Didn’t mean to offend. I’m not an expert, just seen this story play out often. A fantasy storm getting everyone excited only to fizzle out.

yes, it seems pattern is very good for a potential storm. Let’s hope nothing changes. 

Trust me the big Big names in business are allllll over this one

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Sleeping on the second storm because of some OP runs is foolish. Huge signal for a significant storm on the EC. Such a large swath of 0.5" of precip in the NYC metro for a 9 day time lead. I'm feeling good about this one.

Saying that this is not a threat because of personal bias is ignorant. Nobody should be taking the OP Euro seriously, but it illustrates the explosive potential of the period and should be noted. That's all. 

5a9468e2e35da_12zgefsslp22222618.thumb.png.2d20fe77e8bdf57fc98e4d739a95082b.png5a9468fa2c6d3_12zepsslp21622618.thumb.png.5556c1cea78e19d7a714bdcb65d7b029.png

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5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

Sleeping on the second storm because of some OP runs is foolish. Huge signal for a significant storm on the EC. Such a large swath of 0.5" of precip in the NYC metro for a 9 day time lead. I'm feeling good about this one.

Saying that this is not a threat because of personal bias is ignorant. Nobody should be taking the OP Euro seriously, but it illustrates the explosive potential of the period and should be noted. That's all. 

5a9468e2e35da_12zgefsslp22222618.thumb.png.2d20fe77e8bdf57fc98e4d739a95082b.png5a9468fa2c6d3_12zepsslp21622618.thumb.png.5556c1cea78e19d7a714bdcb65d7b029.png

You do a good job of analysis in here. Always showing images to back up your opinion.  

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