SnoSki14 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: This storm is looking less and less impressive with each passing model run anyway. The speed has increased to the point that the block doesn't really setup until the system is too far offshore on the 12z GFS. The first storm misses us on most guidance now. We're not gonna miss this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: We're not gonna miss this storm. Could end up being just an ordinary rainstorm away from the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Could end up being just an ordinary rainstorm away from the coast. If the first storm misses us to the South, we will just be left with whatever falls as the 500mb low slides by which would still be significant, but highly dependent on the track of that low. We really want something like the 06z GFS which had the first system tracking much further North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Looks as if the models are saying we won't see any cold air until around March 8th, and even then it's probably just a brief cold shot. A lot of people were hoping a strong blocking pattern would mean a cold and favorable for snow pattern for early-mid March, but unfortunately that appears to not be the case. I'm not saying we won't see a snowstorm. We pulled off a snowstorm during a blowtorch pattern in February, so anything can happen. But right now it's not looking very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: If the first storm misses us to the South, we will just be left with whatever falls as the 500mb low slides by which would still be significant, but highly dependent on the track of that low. We really want something like the 06z GFS which had the first system tracking much further North. Here we go again with the theme of events getting less impressive as we draw closer, this has been reoccurring over and over since November. I guess we’re going to continue this into March. If we are going to see anymore snow, it needs to happen by 3/9 in my opinion. The pattern will be shifting in the north PAC and I think we are torching by St. Patrick’s Day weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 11 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Here we go again with the theme of events getting less impressive as we draw closer, this has been reoccurring over and over since November. I guess we’re going to continue this into March. If we are going to see anymore snow, it needs to happen by 3/9 in my opinion. The pattern will be shifting in the north PAC and I think we are torching by St. Patrick’s Day weekend. @Snow88 kept wishing for a further and further South track and he got one. So far South that we only get the precip associated with the 500mb low on a lot of model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 The area labeled 1 is that first area which slides to our South. The area labeled number 2 is the secondary system. This results in the block setting up too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Temps are near 40F even for the interior. This is a cold rain, with maybe some interior, elevated snows. Get over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Same precip cutoff as the rest of the 12z guidance. Resorting back to the EPS mean from a few days ago which showed the most precip between DC and Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Euro has a mecs to bordering on hecs for the second storm if anyone cares. Matches up very well with the gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Semantics if statewide 16-24 is mecs or hecs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 I love it, just as this board writes off winter the Euro goes ballistic for next Wednesday with a HEC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I love it, just as this board writes off winter the Euro goes ballistic for next Wednesday with a HEC well it is a 9 day threat on an OP model....with the changes in the last 24 hrs on a day 4 system, way too early to get invested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Just now, Brian5671 said: well it is a 9 day threat on an OP model.... The threat is real... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: The threat is real... It is, but it could end up in NNE or DC at this range...look at today's system sagging south with every run...I might go from 3-5 inches of rain here to almost nothing in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 I've seen this movie before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike1984 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Think it’s silly to call a threat “real” 10 days out. So far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 LOL, I agree that the storm on the Euro is probably mostly snow, especially for the interior, but surface temps are once again in the mid 30's during the height of the storm. I wouldn't be throwing out numbers like 18-24" when you don't have a cold airmass to work with. This would probably end up similar to March 2017. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 23 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: The threat is real... My guess is that through March 15, we have a shot at a snowstorm. This week’s largely or wholly wet outcome does not change things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 7 minutes ago, mike1984 said: Think it’s silly to call a threat “real” 10 days out. So far out. I’m glad it’s silly when pretty much every respectable meteorologist in the regoin agree. They tend to avoid this board because of comments just like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: LOL, I agree that the storm on the Euro is probably mostly snow, especially for the interior, but surface temps are once again in the mid 30's during the height of the storm. I wouldn't be throwing out numbers like 18-24" when you don't have a cold airmass to work with. This would probably end up similar to March 2017. It’s nothing like March 17. Terrible comment. That storm had ample cold air. The issue at the coast was the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike1984 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I’m glad it’s silly when pretty much every respectable meteorologist in the regoin agree. They tend to avoid this board because of comments just like that. Didn’t mean to offend. I’m not an expert, just seen this story play out often. A fantasy storm getting everyone excited only to fizzle out. yes, it seems pattern is very good for a potential storm. Let’s hope nothing changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 A big storm will most likely come out of this pattern before the block breaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, mike1984 said: Didn’t mean to offend. I’m not an expert, just seen this story play out often. A fantasy storm getting everyone excited only to fizzle out. yes, it seems pattern is very good for a potential storm. Let’s hope nothing changes. Trust me the big Big names in business are allllll over this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike1984 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Trust me the big Big names in business are allllll over this one Good to know. I’ll shut up now and try to learn. Ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 A day 10 fantasy storm on the op Euro, which has consistently been way over amping short waves literally the entire winter in the long range is not a “real threat” lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Sleeping on the second storm because of some OP runs is foolish. Huge signal for a significant storm on the EC. Such a large swath of 0.5" of precip in the NYC metro for a 9 day time lead. I'm feeling good about this one. Saying that this is not a threat because of personal bias is ignorant. Nobody should be taking the OP Euro seriously, but it illustrates the explosive potential of the period and should be noted. That's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueDXer75 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: Sleeping on the second storm because of some OP runs is foolish. Huge signal for a significant storm on the EC. Such a large swath of 0.5" of precip in the NYC metro for a 9 day time lead. I'm feeling good about this one. Saying that this is not a threat because of personal bias is ignorant. Nobody should be taking the OP Euro seriously, but it illustrates the explosive potential of the period and should be noted. That's all. You do a good job of analysis in here. Always showing images to back up your opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 The bigger issue with the day 9 threat is looking at the setup at H5 and seeing how everything had to come together perfectly to get the storm where it shows, and knowing that over the next 20 model runs, this will end up much differently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 events are days away and people are talking in absolutes one way or the other ,,,,,pretty comical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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